Twitter's Reaction To Red Bull's Threat To Quit Formula 1

How the twittersphere responded to Helmut Marko's quit threat...

A sneak peak at an early prototype of Red Bull's car for 2016.

It's been a while since I last updated the F1Tips Blog, but I thought I would feature a round-up of the reaction on twitter to the recent quote from Helmut Marko stating that Red Bull 'could contemplate an F1 exit.'

Just in case you've been living under a rock recently, this is what Helmut Marko (advisor to Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz) has said:

“We will evaluate the situation again as every year and look into costs and revenues.  If we are totally dissatisfied we could contemplate an F1 exit.  The danger is there that Mr Mateschitz loses his passion for F1.”

I generally try to show a balanced point of view when posting on this blog, but I have to say that if you search the #F1 streams on twitter, you'll struggle to find too many positive tweets about Red Bull at the moment.

Anyway, here's a sample of how people have reacted to Red Bull's threat to quit F1...

1) "Have Red Bull given up on the F1 season already? The once innovative brand that everyone aspired to sulks because others are better #babies" @SOCWatts

2) "I don't like this tactic, but when you own 2 #F1 teams, people have to listen to this sort of threat." @glenn_autosport

Brazilian Grand Prix: The Top Interlagos Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Sebastian Vettel made it eight consecutive victories at the United States Grand Prix, so it's no surprise to see him installed as the odds on favourite for Brazil with the bookies offering prices between 1.25 and 1.37 for Vettel to make it nine in a row.

However, Interlagos does have a tendency to produce unpredictable races with rain and safety car periods featuring more often than at some other circuits on the calendar, so it may be worth proceeding with caution (and maybe waiting for the weather forecast) before backing Vettel for victory number nine.

Here are the statistics for the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Brazilian Grand Prix ,with the most profitable bets listed first and the safest bets shown below:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.90 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£4.40 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£17.33 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Valtteri Bottas  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£4.58 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.06 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£0.43 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£10.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£13.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil**  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£6.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.65 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement (£5.75 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More***  (£0.36 profit rating)

United States Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

The championship was already wrapped up at India but that made little difference to Sebastian Vettel at Abu Dhabi as he strolled to his seventh straight victory, recording his second most comfortable winning margin of the season (second only to Singapore) in the process.

There's little reason to suggest things will be any different at Austin, and the bookies already have Vettel priced shorter than ever, with 1.33 currently being the best price available for another Vettel victory.

There's no denyng that Vettel is a great driver but his dominance makes for poor entertainment, so the sooner this season is over and we can move onto 2014 the better.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the United States Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.41 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Nico Rosberg  (£4.58 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£21.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£3.08 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£6.67 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.52 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£1.04 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£13.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£19.17 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£30.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Lotus  (£6.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£2.01 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement / 2 retirements (joint equal profit rating of £1.83)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.54 profit rating)

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Few people would have been surprised when Sebastian Vettel wrapped up his fourth championship in India and you have to congratulate Vettel, but his dominance in recent races has made for a less than exciting championship battle.  I'm sure I'm not alone therefore in hoping that next year's regulation changes produce a much more closely fought driver's championship in 2014.

Despite the championship now being decided, I can't see Vettel being any less hungry for victories and the bookies seemingly agree as his odds are even shorter for Abu Dhabi.  As a result of Vettel's short odds, the most profitable bets have not always been the driver that you would expect.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.10 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£6.47 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£11.67 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£1.43 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£2.33 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.18 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£2.19 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£15.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£24.83 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Giedo van der Garde  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (£5.08 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.76 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£3.17 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.05 profit rating)

Indian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Blog Update: I love formula 1 and I love formula 1 statistics, so I've totally enjoyed running this blog over the last year or so.  However, it does require a regular commitment out of my schedule to prepare the betting statistics and upload the various betting tables and charts before every Grand Prix.

For the next few months I'll be away backpacking around the world, and although as a big formula 1 fan I'm trying to fit my travel plans around each Grand Prix wherever possible, the reality is that I won't be able to dedicate as much time to running this blog.

For the rest of the season it's probable therefore that my updates will be limited to a round-up before each Grand Prix of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting categories.

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.48 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.33 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.08 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.66 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£3.50 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.48 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.17 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£2.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£30.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£15.00 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£8.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.89 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£4.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More*  (£0.31 profit rating)

* SkyBet went with 7 seconds as the dividing line for the Winning Margin betting market at the Japanese Grand Prix, as opposed to their previous cut-off of 6 seconds.

Japanese Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£19.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.91 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.48 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.92 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.24 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.63 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£19.83 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  Yes  (-£0.12 profit rating - Both 'yes' and 'no' have recorded a slight loss)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.93 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.50 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.

Korean Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is super performance and they (Red Bull) deserve it.  They are winning everything and we have to do better." " ...Fernando Alonso

It was another uneventful race at the front and the championship looks to be a mathematical formality now.  Further down the field though, there was some exciting racing with Nico Hulkenberg in particular putting in a notable performance.

On the betting front it was an excellent week all round for my tips with all four of my sets of tips making a profit and my 'Longer Priced Bets' in particular producing a pleasing return...

Pre Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel's domination of qualifying continued with his third consectuive pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 - WIN 16 points
Sebastian Vettel took pole from Lewis Hamilton by 0.218 seconds.