Japanese Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£19.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.91 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.48 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.92 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.24 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.63 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£19.83 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  Yes  (-£0.12 profit rating - Both 'yes' and 'no' have recorded a slight loss)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.93 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.50 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.

Korean Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is super performance and they (Red Bull) deserve it.  They are winning everything and we have to do better." " ...Fernando Alonso

It was another uneventful race at the front and the championship looks to be a mathematical formality now.  Further down the field though, there was some exciting racing with Nico Hulkenberg in particular putting in a notable performance.

On the betting front it was an excellent week all round for my tips with all four of my sets of tips making a profit and my 'Longer Priced Bets' in particular producing a pleasing return...

Pre Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel's domination of qualifying continued with his third consectuive pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 - WIN 16 points
Sebastian Vettel took pole from Lewis Hamilton by 0.218 seconds.

The Korean Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“There is always some action in this race." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Korean Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided, it's time to make another set of predictions...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (BetFred)
Ferrari have looked to be a bit off the pace so far this weekend but interestingly, Alonso and Massa recorded the two fastest speeds in the speed trap during qualifying, so it looks as if their cars are set up with overtaking in mind during the race.  Alonso started 9th, 5th and 7th at the three previous Grand Prix this season and on each of those occasions ultimately finished in second place.  Fernando has also made up places at each of the three previous Korean Grand Prix, so starting from fifth another podium looks to be within his capabilities.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None' at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This bet has paid out at every Grand Prix except Monza so once again I'm going to go for a punt on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None'.

The Korean Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"I definitely feel like I have a better foundation this weekend." ...Lewis Hamilton

In recent weeks we've seen some uneventful races, but the signs so far this weekend are more promising.  Less than two tenths of a second separated the fastest four drivers in P2, so hopefully we may be in for a more exciting Korean Grand Prix.

There's also the weather to consider and although a possible typhoon was predicted earlier in the week, recent forecasts suggest that's now looking unlikely.   The latest weather forecast is nevertheless predicting a 60% chance of rain for Sunday's race, so that's another factor which could potentially lead to more excitement.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Coral, BetFred)
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have had a duopoly on pole position over the last seven Grand Prix and there looks to be a reasonable chance of that trend continuing, with a Hamilton Vettel one two in both practise sessions so far.  Of the two, Lewis Hamilton is available at the better odds and Mercedes have a knack for improving between P1 and qualifying, so Lewis is my choice for pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 (SkyBet)
All three of the previous three Korean Grand Prix have seen the front two drivers on the grid separated by less than a quarter of a second with the average gap being 0.12 seconds.  The pace of the front-runners has once again been close so far this weekend with less than two tenths of a second separating the four fastest drivers in P2.

Singapore Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"We want to fight for the championship but we have a 60 point deficit and we need to be very, very lucky." ...Fernando Alonso

With seven laps to go my post qualifying tips were looking at a clean sweep of seven out of seven successful winning bets.  However, late troubles in the race for Paul Di Resta and Mark Webber put paid to a perfect set of tips, but overall I was still fairly pleased with five out of seven winning tips.

On the championship front Sebastian Vettel is looking ever more dominant thanks to his fifth victory in seven races, and unless he suffers at least a couple of DNFs in the final 6 Grand Prix of 2013 then the championship battle is pretty much over.  The best price you can get now on Vettel to claim his fourth successive title is 1.01 from Ladbrokes and Bwin, and I think that says it all really.

Anyway, here's a round-up of how my tips got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Fernando continues to be a strong podium bet, with his third successive second place finish.  His three latest podiums have been achieved from 9th, 5th and 7th on the grid, suggesting that after qualifying (when Alonso's podium odds generally drift out slightly) is the best time to back Alonso for a top three finish.

Total Classified Finishers:
10 points on Over 17.5 at 2.1 (William Hill) - WIN 18 points
This was a winning bet but also a missed opportunity as if I'd gone for 'Total Classified Finishers - Over 18.5' which was available from SkyBet, I could have increased my winning odds to 2.75.  For the record, that's now seven consecutive Grand Prix where SkyBet's 'Total Classified Finishers - Over/Under' market has produce a winning 'Over' result.

The Singapore Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“It was a strange feeling when you see the others making their final attempt and there’s nothing you can do. " ...Sebastian Vettel

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix and now that we know the starting grid, it's time to make another set of predictions.

There weren't a lot of bets which stood out as instantly appealing, but I've picked out a few, so here are my post-qualifying predictions for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power)
Alonso has a decent record here, winning in 2008* and 2010 and finishing on the podium at all but one of the five previous Singapore Grand Prix.  He also came from 9th and 5th on the grid to finish 2nd at each of the previous two Grand Prix of 2013, so starting from 7th doesn't necessarily rule him out of another podium.  It's trickier to overtake at Singapore than at Spa and Monza obviously, but strategy can come into play, and the safety car has been deployed at least once at every Singapore Grand Prix, so pitstop timing could be key. 

* Admittedly thanks to a little help from 'Crashgate'.

The Singapore Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"You want to qualify as high up as possible and, of course, aim for the front row, but that will be tough." ...Lewis Hamilton

As I mentioned after Monza, some bookies now have Sebastian Vettel priced as low as 1.02 to take his fourth consecutive driver's championship, and judging by his dominant form in P2 it would be a brave man to bet against him.

The bookies have Lewis Hamilton priced as the driver with the biggest chance of denying Vettel pole position this weekend.  However, Lewis is predicting that even the front row will be tough, so it doesn't look good for Vettel's championship rivals.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
10 points on Red Bull at 1.44 (Paddy Power)
From twelve Grand Prix in 2013, Red Bull have only failed to record a double points scoring finish on two occasions.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Over 0.25 Seconds at 1.91 (SkyBet)
The average qualifying margin separating the front row of the grid at Singapore has been 0.367 seconds, and given that Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular looked in ominous form in P2, we may be in for a similarly comfortable margin in Saturday's qualifying session.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Tips

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing."  However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather generous.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Tips

"The car feels really good so his [Vettel's] car must feel incredible! " ...Lewis Hamilton

Last time out at Spa I correctly predicted Lewis Hamilton for pole position, but other than that my pre-qualifying tips had a disappointing weekend.  It may therefore be wiser to pay closer attention to the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets this weekend.

It's a crucial weekend for the championship, and the likes of Lewis, Fernando and Kimi really have to start beating Sebastion sooner rather than later if we're going to have a close championship battle, but so far this weekend Red Bull are looking very strong as usual.

It's worth mentioning that the weather forecast is predicting 'scattered thunderstorms over the weekend', so it may be wiser to wait until Sunday morning (when a more accurate idea of the possibility of a wet race should be available) before placing your formula 1 bets this weekend.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.0 (Boylesports)
Lewis has had a mixed weekend so far, with the fastest time in P1 and a less impressive P2, but he arrives at Monza on the back of two podium finishes and he won here last year.  Monza is generally also kinder to tyres than some tracks, which should suit Mercedes, so the odds of 2.0 offered by Boylesports for a Lewis Hamilton podium seem reasonable.

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Post-Qualifying Tips

"In these conditions, it's more of a lottery and the driver can make more of a difference. " ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

I've pretty much banked on a wet race with several of these tips, but I reckon the wisest strategy is probably to check the weather predictions closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred)
Alonso was unlucky with the timing of the rain in Q3 and as a result ended up 9th on the grid, but he had the pace in Q1 and Q2, and he seems confident for his chances in the race.  Track position isn't as vital at Spa as at certain other tracks, especially if we get a wet race, so although Fernando's podium consistency hasn't been quite as strong this year as it was in 2012, odds of 3.0 are enough to tempt me into a small bet on Alonso to make up places during the race and finish on the podium.