Indian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Blog Update: I love formula 1 and I love formula 1 statistics, so I've totally enjoyed running this blog over the last year or so.  However, it does require a regular commitment out of my schedule to prepare the betting statistics and upload the various betting tables and charts before every Grand Prix.

For the next few months I'll be away backpacking around the world, and although as a big formula 1 fan I'm trying to fit my travel plans around each Grand Prix wherever possible, the reality is that I won't be able to dedicate as much time to running this blog.

For the rest of the season it's probable therefore that my updates will be limited to a round-up before each Grand Prix of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting categories.

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.48 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.33 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.08 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.66 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£3.50 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.48 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.17 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£2.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£30.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£15.00 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£8.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.89 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£4.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More*  (£0.31 profit rating)

* SkyBet went with 7 seconds as the dividing line for the Winning Margin betting market at the Japanese Grand Prix, as opposed to their previous cut-off of 6 seconds.

Japanese Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£19.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.91 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.48 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.92 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.24 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.63 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£19.83 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  Yes  (-£0.12 profit rating - Both 'yes' and 'no' have recorded a slight loss)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.93 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.50 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.

Korean Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is super performance and they (Red Bull) deserve it.  They are winning everything and we have to do better." " ...Fernando Alonso

It was another uneventful race at the front and the championship looks to be a mathematical formality now.  Further down the field though, there was some exciting racing with Nico Hulkenberg in particular putting in a notable performance.

On the betting front it was an excellent week all round for my tips with all four of my sets of tips making a profit and my 'Longer Priced Bets' in particular producing a pleasing return...

Pre Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel's domination of qualifying continued with his third consectuive pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 - WIN 16 points
Sebastian Vettel took pole from Lewis Hamilton by 0.218 seconds.

The Korean Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"I definitely feel like I have a better foundation this weekend." ...Lewis Hamilton

In recent weeks we've seen some uneventful races, but the signs so far this weekend are more promising.  Less than two tenths of a second separated the fastest four drivers in P2, so hopefully we may be in for a more exciting Korean Grand Prix.

There's also the weather to consider and although a possible typhoon was predicted earlier in the week, recent forecasts suggest that's now looking unlikely.   The latest weather forecast is nevertheless predicting a 60% chance of rain for Sunday's race, so that's another factor which could potentially lead to more excitement.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Coral, BetFred)
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have had a duopoly on pole position over the last seven Grand Prix and there looks to be a reasonable chance of that trend continuing, with a Hamilton Vettel one two in both practise sessions so far.  Of the two, Lewis Hamilton is available at the better odds and Mercedes have a knack for improving between P1 and qualifying, so Lewis is my choice for pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 (SkyBet)
All three of the previous three Korean Grand Prix have seen the front two drivers on the grid separated by less than a quarter of a second with the average gap being 0.12 seconds.  The pace of the front-runners has once again been close so far this weekend with less than two tenths of a second separating the four fastest drivers in P2.

Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you want to beat the bookies at formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, so over the last few days I've analysed the statistics to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.22 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£14.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.23 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.62 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.72 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.70 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Daniel Ricciardo  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£9.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.23 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.72 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (£0.20 profit rating)

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As the Korean Grand Prix approaches I've analysed the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I look at Top Ten Finish betting and once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Korea, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I move on to the Top Six betting market.

As usual I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg	14.00	1
Felipe Massa	0.97	3
Fernando Alonso	0.80	6
Sebastian Vettel	0.45	5
Nico Rosberg	0.40	4
Jenson Button	-0.10	2
Lewis Hamilton	-0.15	5
Mark Webber	-0.53	4
Kimi Raikkonen	-0.76	4
Romain Grosjean	-1.63	2
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Singapore Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.61 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£2.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lewis Hamilton  (£3.44 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Mercedes  (£2.83 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£2.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£5.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel (£3.30 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.54 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  One  (£1.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.37 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Singapore, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg	17.50	1
Jenson Button	1.17	2
Fernando Alonso	0.83	6
Mark Webber	0.65	5
Sebastian Vettel	0.25	5
Nico Rosberg	-0.02	4
Felipe Massa	-0.30	2
Lewis Hamilton	-0.32	5
Jean-Eric Vergne	-0.67	1
Romain Grosjean	-0.85	2
Kimi Raikkonen	-1.34	3
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso

Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability.  It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent with his contract negotiations for next season!).  Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Post-Qualifying Tips

"We've got a steep hill to climb with these tyres and if we did win it would be a miracle." ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions .

Also, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category of bets (pre and post qualifying/shorter and longer priced bets) to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots and also to decide whether it's wiser to place your bets before or after qualifying.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Top Ten Finish:
10 points on Nico Hulkenberg at 2.75 (Bet Fred)
Nico Hulkenberg has done reasonably okay on his two previous visits to the Hungaroring (6th in 2010 and 11th in 2012) and he's also currently the most profitable Top Ten bet based on the recent form guide, so I'm going to go for a small punt on that form to continue with another points scoring finish.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on Lap 1 Retrements - Nil at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This has been the most consistant bet of the season and if you'd bet £1 on No Lap 1 Retirements at every Grand Prix then you'd currently be £5.48 in profit.

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I report on the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent form.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips Blog, the first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver to finish in the points at every Grand Prix of the year:

Top 10 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg	3.83	4
Paul Di Resta	2.15	7
Kimi Raikkonen	1.59	9
Jean-Eric Vergne	1.50	3
Mark Webber	0.69	8
Lewis Hamilton	0.68	8
Fernando Alonso	0.32	8
Sebastian Vettel	0.26	8
Nico Rosberg	-0.17	7
Daniel Ricciardo	-0.50	3
Jenson Button	-0.53	6
Felipe Massa	-1.24	6
Sergio Perez	-1.50	4
Romain Grosjean	-1.82	5
Adrian Sutil	-2.19	4
Rest Of The Field	-9.00	0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.