Brazilian Grand Prix: The Top Interlagos Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Sebastian Vettel made it eight consecutive victories at the United States Grand Prix, so it's no surprise to see him installed as the odds on favourite for Brazil with the bookies offering prices between 1.25 and 1.37 for Vettel to make it nine in a row.

However, Interlagos does have a tendency to produce unpredictable races with rain and safety car periods featuring more often than at some other circuits on the calendar, so it may be worth proceeding with caution (and maybe waiting for the weather forecast) before backing Vettel for victory number nine.

Here are the statistics for the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Brazilian Grand Prix ,with the most profitable bets listed first and the safest bets shown below:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.90 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£4.40 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£17.33 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Valtteri Bottas  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£4.58 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.06 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£0.43 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£10.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£13.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil**  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£6.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.65 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement (£5.75 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More***  (£0.36 profit rating)

United States Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

The championship was already wrapped up at India but that made little difference to Sebastian Vettel at Abu Dhabi as he strolled to his seventh straight victory, recording his second most comfortable winning margin of the season (second only to Singapore) in the process.

There's little reason to suggest things will be any different at Austin, and the bookies already have Vettel priced shorter than ever, with 1.33 currently being the best price available for another Vettel victory.

There's no denyng that Vettel is a great driver but his dominance makes for poor entertainment, so the sooner this season is over and we can move onto 2014 the better.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the United States Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.41 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Nico Rosberg  (£4.58 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£21.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£3.08 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£6.67 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.52 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£1.04 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£13.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£19.17 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£30.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Lotus  (£6.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£2.01 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement / 2 retirements (joint equal profit rating of £1.83)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.54 profit rating)

Italian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Mark Webber	10.33	3
Fernando Alonso	3.17	1
Sebastian Vettel	0.67	2
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	4.50	1
Lewis Hamilton	0.80	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	5
Kimi Raikkonen	0.50	2
Fernando Alonso	-0.24	3

Nico Rosberg	-1.38	2
Mark Webber	-1.71	2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	3.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	2.75	1
Sebastian Vettel	2.42	3
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at Spa.

The Belgian Grand Prix was far from beng a classic, but qualifying provided dramatic entertainment right up to the final seconds.

So to tell the story of qualifying from a betting point of view, I've recorded the 'bet in play' odds for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

The Bet In Play odds for qualifying at the Belgian Grand Prix.

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso

Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability.  It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent with his contract negotiations for next season!).  Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

Belgian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last week or so I've analysed recent results to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, below...

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my review of the form guide by taking a look at a selection of miscellaneous formula 1 betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Mark Webber	14.83	3
Esteban Gutierrez	13.33	1
Fernando Alonso	4.83	1
Sebastian Vettel	-2.17	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	6.50	1
Kimi Raikkonen	1.70	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.31	4
Lewis Hamilton	-0.15	2
Nico Rosberg	-0.43	2

Mark Webber	-0.75	2
Fernando Alonso	-1.50	3

Felipe Massa

-2.67

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first weighted in favour of recent races (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	6.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	4.00	1
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	2
Fernando Alonso	-2.88	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Hungarian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the leading contenders during the Hungarian Grand Prix

In the end it all seemed relatively straight forward for Lewis Hamilton, but for the first 17 laps of the race it was Sebastian Vettel (and very briefly Romain Grosjean) who were regarded as the favourites by the bookies.

This is the chart which shows the bet in play odds throughout the race:

Hungarian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at the Hungaroring.

At Hungary throughout each qualifying session I recorded the 'bet in play' odds available from SkyBet for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

Hungarian Grand Prix: Round-Up

"If we can be quick here in a race with these track temperatures, then I'm very hopeful that we can be competitive everywhere else."  ...Lewis Hamilton

After qualifying Lewis Hamilton was declaring that it would be a miracle if he won the race, which just shows that you should never pay much attention to what drivers say!  Tyres never looked to be an issue at all, which is an encouraging sign for Mercedes as we head into the second half of the season.

When it came to my tips, it was a case of too many near misses costing me on too many occasions.  As previously mentioned, I'm going to be keeping a running tally of how my tips perform, so here's the report on how things turned out...

Pre Qualifying Tips

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet) - LOSS
Around about lap 20, Alonso's 'bet in play' odds to win the race came down to 9.0 and he was looking in the mix for a podium.   However, by the midway stage of the race it was clear that Alonso was losing ground and he eventually finished in 5th position, 19 seconds behind Vettel's podium time.

Qualifying Match Bets:
10 point accumulator on:  (Bet365) - WIN 19 points
Lewis Hamilton V Nico Rosberg - Lewis Hamilton at 1.57
Sebastian Vettel V Mark Webber - Sebastian Vettel at 1.2

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Post-Qualifying Tips

"We've got a steep hill to climb with these tyres and if we did win it would be a miracle." ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions .

Also, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category of bets (pre and post qualifying/shorter and longer priced bets) to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots and also to decide whether it's wiser to place your bets before or after qualifying.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Top Ten Finish:
10 points on Nico Hulkenberg at 2.75 (Bet Fred)
Nico Hulkenberg has done reasonably okay on his two previous visits to the Hungaroring (6th in 2010 and 11th in 2012) and he's also currently the most profitable Top Ten bet based on the recent form guide, so I'm going to go for a small punt on that form to continue with another points scoring finish.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on Lap 1 Retrements - Nil at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This has been the most consistant bet of the season and if you'd bet £1 on No Lap 1 Retirements at every Grand Prix then you'd currently be £5.48 in profit.

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Hungarian Grand Prix

For previous Grand Prix I've given myself 100 points and then made a selection of pre and post qualifying tips split between shorter and longer priced bets.

However, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category for every Grand Prix to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to decide whether it's better to place your bets before or after qualifying and also make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots.

If I'd followed this format since the Spanish Grand Prix (when I first started splitting my tips into shorter priced and longer priced bets), then my Post-Qualifying Shorter Priced Tips would currently be on a total of 204 points, i.e. a cumulative profit of 104 points.  My Post-Qualifying Longer Priced Tips and Pre-Qualifying Shorter Priced tips on the other hand would both be completely wiped out, suggesting a punt on relatively low-risk bets after qualifying is maybe the safest strategy to follow.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and I'll see how I get on...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet)
Red Bull have grabbed the headlines with a one two in both P1 and P2, and Vettel has reportedly also had the fastest long run pace, but at such short odds he doesn't hold much appeal.  There hasn't been that much in it at the front with the Lotus and Ferrari drivers in the mix behind Red Bull, and in P2 Fernando was less than two tenths of a second behind Vettel.  Alonso also tends to make up places during the race, so if he gets a decent qualifying position then he looks to be a decent podium bet.