The 'Break Even' odds for each driver in the Top Six Finish market
It’s probably fair to say that the podium market was generally the easier of the two to predict over the course of the season, and that any big winnings in the Winning Driver market would have had to rely on a larger degree of luck.
The two charts also highlighted that although the bookies tend to rank drivers in a similar order in every market, in actual fact the different place finishing trends of certain drivers mean that a driver who is generally available at long odds in the Winning Driver market, can nevertheless sometimes be a better bet in some of the other betting markets.
Anyway, next up is the Top Six market where once again I’ve used the number of top six finishes to calculate the odds for the ‘break even point’ from a betting point of view. By this I mean if you were to place a bet on a driver at every Grand Prix of the season, the odds at which the driver would have to be priced at every race to ensure you broke even over the course of the season.
Here are the results…
|Driver||Top Sixes||Break Even Odds|
|Paul Di Resta||2||10.00|
As you’d expect, the odds on the top drivers in this market were generally short so although Sebastian Vettel managed 17 top six finishes and Fernando Alonso finished in the top six on 16 occasions, drivers such as Felipe Massa and Kamui Kobayashi would actually have offered better value over the course of the season.
Felipe Massa in particular was an excellent top six bet during the early stages of his late season upsurge in form when he managed 7 top sixes finishes from the last 9 Grand Prix. For the first few races of this run the bookies were slow to spot Felipe’s improvement in form and were therefore still pricing him quite generously.
Another driver worth keeping an eye on was Kimi Raikkonen who at one stage went on a run of nine consecutive top six finishes. Obviously the key to taking advantage of this run was to spot his consistency at the start of the run as it wasn’t until towards the end of this run that his odds started to noticeably shorten.
Next week I’ll round things off with the chart for the 'break even odds' for the Top Ten betting market.
Formula 1 Betting Markets: Part 2 - Podium Finish
Formula 1 Betting Markets: Part 1 - Winning Driver
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