Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Brazilian Grand Prix: The Top Interlagos Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Sebastian Vettel made it eight consecutive victories at the United States Grand Prix, so it's no surprise to see him installed as the odds on favourite for Brazil with the bookies offering prices between 1.25 and 1.37 for Vettel to make it nine in a row.

However, Interlagos does have a tendency to produce unpredictable races with rain and safety car periods featuring more often than at some other circuits on the calendar, so it may be worth proceeding with caution (and maybe waiting for the weather forecast) before backing Vettel for victory number nine.

Here are the statistics for the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Brazilian Grand Prix ,with the most profitable bets listed first and the safest bets shown below:

Most Profitable Bets*:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.90 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£4.40 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£17.33 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Valtteri Bottas  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£4.58 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.06 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£0.43 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£10.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£13.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil**  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£6.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.65 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement (£5.75 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More***  (£0.36 profit rating)

Wednesday, 13 November 2013

United States Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


The championship was already wrapped up at India but that made little difference to Sebastian Vettel at Abu Dhabi as he strolled to his seventh straight victory, recording his second most comfortable winning margin of the season (second only to Singapore) in the process.

There's little reason to suggest things will be any different at Austin, and the bookies already have Vettel priced shorter than ever, with 1.33 currently being the best price available for another Vettel victory.

There's no denyng that Vettel is a great driver but his dominance makes for poor entertainment, so the sooner this season is over and we can move onto 2014 the better.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the United States Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.41 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Nico Rosberg  (£4.58 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£21.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£3.08 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£6.67 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.52 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£1.04 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£13.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£19.17 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£30.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Lotus  (£6.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£2.01 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement / 2 retirements (joint equal profit rating of £1.83)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.54 profit rating)

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Few people would have been surprised when Sebastian Vettel wrapped up his fourth championship in India and you have to congratulate Vettel, but his dominance in recent races has made for a less than exciting championship battle.  I'm sure I'm not alone therefore in hoping that next year's regulation changes produce a much more closely fought driver's championship in 2014.

Despite the championship now being decided, I can't see Vettel being any less hungry for victories and the bookies seemingly agree as his odds are even shorter for Abu Dhabi.  As a result of Vettel's short odds, the most profitable bets have not always been the driver that you would expect.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.10 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£6.47 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£11.67 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£1.43 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£2.33 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.18 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£2.19 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£15.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£24.83 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Giedo van der Garde  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (£5.08 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.76 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£3.17 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.05 profit rating)

Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Indian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Blog Update: I love formula 1 and I love formula 1 statistics, so I've totally enjoyed running this blog over the last year or so.  However, it does require a regular commitment out of my schedule to prepare the betting statistics and upload the various betting tables and charts before every Grand Prix.

For the next few months I'll be away backpacking around the world, and although as a big formula 1 fan I'm trying to fit my travel plans around each Grand Prix wherever possible, the reality is that I won't be able to dedicate as much time to running this blog.

For the rest of the season it's probable therefore that my updates will be limited to a round-up before each Grand Prix of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting categories.

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.


Most Profitable Bets:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.48 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.33 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.08 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.66 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£3.50 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.48 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.17 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£2.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£30.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£15.00 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£8.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.89 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£4.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More*  (£0.31 profit rating)

* SkyBet went with 7 seconds as the dividing line for the Winning Margin betting market at the Japanese Grand Prix, as opposed to their previous cut-off of 6 seconds.

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Japanese Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£19.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.91 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.48 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.92 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.24 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.63 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£19.83 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  Yes  (-£0.12 profit rating - Both 'yes' and 'no' have recorded a slight loss)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.93 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.50 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.

Sunday, 6 October 2013

Korean Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is super performance and they (Red Bull) deserve it.  They are winning everything and we have to do better." " ...Fernando Alonso


It was another uneventful race at the front and the championship looks to be a mathematical formality now.  Further down the field though, there was some exciting racing with Nico Hulkenberg in particular putting in a notable performance.

On the betting front it was an excellent week all round for my tips with all four of my sets of tips making a profit and my 'Longer Priced Bets' in particular producing a pleasing return...

Pre Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel's domination of qualifying continued with his third consectuive pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 - WIN 16 points
Sebastian Vettel took pole from Lewis Hamilton by 0.218 seconds.

Saturday, 5 October 2013

The Korean Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“There is always some action in this race." ...Fernando Alonso


Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Korean Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided, it's time to make another set of predictions...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (BetFred)
Ferrari have looked to be a bit off the pace so far this weekend but interestingly, Alonso and Massa recorded the two fastest speeds in the speed trap during qualifying, so it looks as if their cars are set up with overtaking in mind during the race.  Alonso started 9th, 5th and 7th at the three previous Grand Prix this season and on each of those occasions ultimately finished in second place.  Fernando has also made up places at each of the three previous Korean Grand Prix, so starting from fifth another podium looks to be within his capabilities.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None' at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This bet has paid out at every Grand Prix except Monza so once again I'm going to go for a punt on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None'.

Friday, 4 October 2013

The Korean Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"I definitely feel like I have a better foundation this weekend." ...Lewis Hamilton


In recent weeks we've seen some uneventful races, but the signs so far this weekend are more promising.  Less than two tenths of a second separated the fastest four drivers in P2, so hopefully we may be in for a more exciting Korean Grand Prix.

There's also the weather to consider and although a possible typhoon was predicted earlier in the week, recent forecasts suggest that's now looking unlikely.   The latest weather forecast is nevertheless predicting a 60% chance of rain for Sunday's race, so that's another factor which could potentially lead to more excitement.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Coral, BetFred)
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have had a duopoly on pole position over the last seven Grand Prix and there looks to be a reasonable chance of that trend continuing, with a Hamilton Vettel one two in both practise sessions so far.  Of the two, Lewis Hamilton is available at the better odds and Mercedes have a knack for improving between P1 and qualifying, so Lewis is my choice for pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 (SkyBet)
All three of the previous three Korean Grand Prix have seen the front two drivers on the grid separated by less than a quarter of a second with the average gap being 0.12 seconds.  The pace of the front-runners has once again been close so far this weekend with less than two tenths of a second separating the four fastest drivers in P2.

Thursday, 3 October 2013

Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


If you want to beat the bookies at formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, so over the last few days I've analysed the statistics to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.22 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£14.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.23 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.62 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.72 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.70 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Daniel Ricciardo  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£9.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.23 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.72 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (£0.20 profit rating)

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a few miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts are based on the last six races with the statistics weighted in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.


Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel1.832
Lewis Hamilton1.501
Mark Webber1.332
Fernando Alonso-0.171
Rest Of The Field-3.500



Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


As the Korean Grand Prix approaches I've analysed the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I look at Top Ten Finish betting and once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

Monday, 30 September 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


So far in the run-up to Korea, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I move on to the Top Six betting market.

As usual I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):


Top 6 FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg14.001
Felipe Massa0.973
Fernando Alonso0.806
Sebastian Vettel0.455
Nico Rosberg0.404
Jenson Button-0.102
Lewis Hamilton-0.155
Mark Webber-0.534
Kimi Raikkonen-0.764
Romain Grosjean-1.632
Rest Of The Field-3.500

*
Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.


Sunday, 29 September 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

As usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):


Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel1.225
Kimi Raikkonen1.173
Fernando Alonso1.064
Romain Grosjean0.501
Mark Webber-0.682
Lewis Hamilton-1.252
Nico Rosberg-2.921
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Saturday, 28 September 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


In the build-up to the Korean Grand Prix I've analysed the latest formula 1 results to produce various form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):


Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel3.974
Lewis Hamilton0.251
Nico Rosberg-1.671
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Monday, 23 September 2013

Singapore Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"We want to fight for the championship but we have a 60 point deficit and we need to be very, very lucky." ...Fernando Alonso


With seven laps to go my post qualifying tips were looking at a clean sweep of seven out of seven successful winning bets.  However, late troubles in the race for Paul Di Resta and Mark Webber put paid to a perfect set of tips, but overall I was still fairly pleased with five out of seven winning tips.

On the championship front Sebastian Vettel is looking ever more dominant thanks to his fifth victory in seven races, and unless he suffers at least a couple of DNFs in the final 6 Grand Prix of 2013 then the championship battle is pretty much over.  The best price you can get now on Vettel to claim his fourth successive title is 1.01 from Ladbrokes and Bwin, and I think that says it all really.

Anyway, here's a round-up of how my tips got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Fernando continues to be a strong podium bet, with his third successive second place finish.  His three latest podiums have been achieved from 9th, 5th and 7th on the grid, suggesting that after qualifying (when Alonso's podium odds generally drift out slightly) is the best time to back Alonso for a top three finish.

Total Classified Finishers:
10 points on Over 17.5 at 2.1 (William Hill) - WIN 18 points
This was a winning bet but also a missed opportunity as if I'd gone for 'Total Classified Finishers - Over 18.5' which was available from SkyBet, I could have increased my winning odds to 2.75.  For the record, that's now seven consecutive Grand Prix where SkyBet's 'Total Classified Finishers - Over/Under' market has produce a winning 'Over' result.

Saturday, 21 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“It was a strange feeling when you see the others making their final attempt and there’s nothing you can do. " ...Sebastian Vettel


Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix and now that we know the starting grid, it's time to make another set of predictions.

There weren't a lot of bets which stood out as instantly appealing, but I've picked out a few, so here are my post-qualifying predictions for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power)
Alonso has a decent record here, winning in 2008* and 2010 and finishing on the podium at all but one of the five previous Singapore Grand Prix.  He also came from 9th and 5th on the grid to finish 2nd at each of the previous two Grand Prix of 2013, so starting from 7th doesn't necessarily rule him out of another podium.  It's trickier to overtake at Singapore than at Spa and Monza obviously, but strategy can come into play, and the safety car has been deployed at least once at every Singapore Grand Prix, so pitstop timing could be key. 

* Admittedly thanks to a little help from 'Crashgate'.

Friday, 20 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"You want to qualify as high up as possible and, of course, aim for the front row, but that will be tough." ...Lewis Hamilton


As I mentioned after Monza, some bookies now have Sebastian Vettel priced as low as 1.02 to take his fourth consecutive driver's championship, and judging by his dominant form in P2 it would be a brave man to bet against him.

The bookies have Lewis Hamilton priced as the driver with the biggest chance of denying Vettel pole position this weekend.  However, Lewis is predicting that even the front row will be tough, so it doesn't look good for Vettel's championship rivals.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
10 points on Red Bull at 1.44 (Paddy Power)
From twelve Grand Prix in 2013, Red Bull have only failed to record a double points scoring finish on two occasions.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Over 0.25 Seconds at 1.91 (SkyBet)
The average qualifying margin separating the front row of the grid at Singapore has been 0.367 seconds, and given that Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular looked in ominous form in P2, we may be in for a similarly comfortable margin in Saturday's qualifying session.

Thursday, 19 September 2013

Singapore Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.61 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£2.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lewis Hamilton  (£3.44 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Mercedes  (£2.83 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£2.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£5.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel (£3.30 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.54 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  One  (£1.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.37 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Wednesday, 18 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.


Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Mark Webber 5.833
Lewis Hamilton2.501
Fernando Alonso1.501
Sebastian Vettel-0.581
Rest Of The Field-3.500



Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Tuesday, 17 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

Monday, 16 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


So far in the run-up to Singapore, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):


Top 6 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg 17.50 1
Jenson Button 1.17 2
Fernando Alonso 0.83 6
Mark Webber 0.65 5
Sebastian Vettel 0.25 5
Nico Rosberg -0.02 4
Felipe Massa -0.30 2
Lewis Hamilton -0.32 5
Jean-Eric Vergne -0.67 1
Romain Grosjean -0.85 2
Kimi Raikkonen -1.34 3
Rest Of The Field -3.50 0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Sunday, 15 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):


Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean2.501
Sebastian Vettel1.015
Fernando Alonso0.494
Mark Webber0.212
Lewis Hamilton-0.233
Kimi Raikkonen-0.422
Nico Rosberg-2.331
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Saturday, 14 September 2013

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


As usual I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.
Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):


Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel3.614
Lewis Hamilton1.501
Nico Rosberg0.171
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Monday, 9 September 2013

Italian Grand Prix: Round Up

"I had a big flat spot and I wasn't sure if the tyre would survive." ...Sebastian Vettel


I have to admit that although I have had my favourite drivers over the years, in general I'm a fan of exciting championship battles more than I'm a fan of any specific driver.  However, after Sebastian Vettel claimed his 6th victory of the season, the chances of a dramatic finish to the season are looking extremely slim.

There are still seven races to go, but Sebastian Vettel now has a 53 point lead over nearest rival Fernando Alonso, and the bookies have Vettel priced at between 1.02 to 1.04 to retain the formula 1 driver's championship.

Here's a quick round-up of how my Monza bets got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel were both on the podium, ensuring Red Bull's 10th double points scoring finish of the season.

Top Six Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.7 (William Hill) - LOSS
Lewis had a slow puncture early in the race, as well as radio problems, and eventually came home in 9th position.

Saturday, 7 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Tips

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso


Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing."  However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather generous.

Friday, 6 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Tips

"The car feels really good so his [Vettel's] car must feel incredible! " ...Lewis Hamilton


Last time out at Spa I correctly predicted Lewis Hamilton for pole position, but other than that my pre-qualifying tips had a disappointing weekend.  It may therefore be wiser to pay closer attention to the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets this weekend.

It's a crucial weekend for the championship, and the likes of Lewis, Fernando and Kimi really have to start beating Sebastion sooner rather than later if we're going to have a close championship battle, but so far this weekend Red Bull are looking very strong as usual.

It's worth mentioning that the weather forecast is predicting 'scattered thunderstorms over the weekend', so it may be wiser to wait until Sunday morning (when a more accurate idea of the possibility of a wet race should be available) before placing your formula 1 bets this weekend.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.0 (Boylesports)
Lewis has had a mixed weekend so far, with the fastest time in P1 and a less impressive P2, but he arrives at Monza on the back of two podium finishes and he won here last year.  Monza is generally also kinder to tyres than some tracks, which should suit Mercedes, so the odds of 2.0 offered by Boylesports for a Lewis Hamilton podium seem reasonable.

Thursday, 5 September 2013

Italian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Wednesday, 4 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Mark Webber 10.333
Fernando Alonso3.171
Sebastian Vettel0.672
Rest Of The Field-3.500



Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

Monday, 2 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


So far in the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

Sunday, 1 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):


Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean4.501
Lewis Hamilton0.803
Sebastian Vettel0.785
Kimi Raikkonen0.502
Fernando Alonso-0.243
Nico Rosberg-1.382
Mark Webber-1.712
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Saturday, 31 August 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


In the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):


Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg3.172
Lewis Hamilton2.751
Sebastian Vettel2.423
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Thursday, 29 August 2013

Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at Spa.


The Belgian Grand Prix was far from beng a classic, but qualifying provided dramatic entertainment right up to the final seconds.

So to tell the story of qualifying from a betting point of view, I've recorded the 'bet in play' odds for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.


The Bet In Play odds for qualifying at the Belgian Grand Prix.

Monday, 26 August 2013

Belgian Grand Prix: Round-Up

"It is still open.  We just need to keep trying to improve our performance and try to turn it around." ...Fernando Alonso


Unfortunately, this year's Belgian Grand Prix was far from being a classic and couldn't come anywhere near to reproducing the excitement of qualifying.  Sebastian Vettel quickly strolled into a comfortable lead and then controlled the race from there on in, so hopefuly Monza in a couple of weeks' time will produce better racing.

Overall, it was also a disappointing weekend for my tips as several of my bets were undone by the weather.  A few still came up though, so this is the round-up of how I got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred) - WIN 30 points
Alonso was up to 5th place by the end of the first lap and then made his way up through the field very quickly, so by a very early stage in the race he was already looking good for the podium.

Saturday, 24 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Post-Qualifying Tips

"In these conditions, it's more of a lottery and the driver can make more of a difference. " ...Lewis Hamilton


Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

I've pretty much banked on a wet race with several of these tips, but I reckon the wisest strategy is probably to check the weather predictions closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred)
Alonso was unlucky with the timing of the rain in Q3 and as a result ended up 9th on the grid, but he had the pace in Q1 and Q2, and he seems confident for his chances in the race.  Track position isn't as vital at Spa as at certain other tracks, especially if we get a wet race, so although Fernando's podium consistency hasn't been quite as strong this year as it was in 2012, odds of 3.0 are enough to tempt me into a small bet on Alonso to make up places during the race and finish on the podium.

Friday, 23 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso


Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability.  It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent with his contract negotiations for next season!).  Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

Thursday, 22 August 2013

Belgian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Over the last week or so I've analysed recent results to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, below...

Wednesday, 21 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Today I'm going to round-off my review of the form guide by taking a look at a selection of miscellaneous formula 1 betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Mark Webber 14.833
Esteban Gutierrez13.331
Fernando Alonso4.831
Sebastian Vettel-2.171
Rest Of The Field-3.500



Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Tuesday, 20 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

Monday, 19 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


In the run-up to Spa, I've so far analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):


Top 6 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Jean-Eric Vergne 5.00 1
Jenson Button 1.46 2
Lewis Hamilton 0.91 5
Romain Grosjean 0.70 2
Fernando Alonso 0.39 5
Mark Webber 0.37 5
Kimi Raikkonen 0.31 4
Sebastian Vettel -0.04 5
Nico Rosberg -0.94 4
Felipe Massa -2.09 2
Adrian Sutil -2.58 1
Rest Of The Field -3.50 0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.