Sunday, 28 April 2013

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As the formula 1 calendar has a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I thought I would make use of the time to analyse the season so far from a betting point of view and compare which drivers have been the most profitable bets in each of the most popular betting markets.

I've therefore looked at the pre-qualifying odds offered by SkyBet at each Grand Prix of the season and then compiled a few charts showing which drivers would have returned the biggest profit in various markets if you'd bet on them at every race.

As we've only had three different race winners so far, the Winning Driver chart is fairly straight forward:

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Bahrain Grand Prix: Sakhir Round-Up

"The pace was phenomenal, the car was great.  I could push every single lap and look after the tyres." ...Sebastian Vettel

We had an exciting first few opening laps as Vettel battled with Alonso and Rosberg, but once Alonso encoutered DRS problems it became a fairly straight forward victory for Vettel and he found himself in the happy position during his final stint of being told by his team he could take it easy.

Onto my tips and I had more losses than wins this race.  This is how my tips got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Nico Rosberg at 8.0 - LOSS
Nico fought hard during the opening laps to keep Sebastian Vettel behind him, but it was clear that there was only going to be one inevitable conclusion.  Once Vettel made his way past, Rosberg was unable to make his rear tyres last as well as other drivers and quickly fell back down the running order and eventually finished in 9th position.

20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.44 - WIN 29 points
I proved to be too conservative with this bet as after some exciting battles with Alonso and Rosberg on the opening laps, Vettel then took the lead and made it look easy as he cruised to his second victory of the season with a comfortable 9.1 second margin.

Saturday, 20 April 2013

The Bahrain Grand Prix: Sakhir Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Bahrain Grand Prix

Qualifying threw up a few surprises with Nico Rosberg taking pole by over quarter of a second.  Vettel and Alonso line up behind him with Raikkonen and Hamilton back in 8th and 9th, so it promises to be another interesting Grand Prix tomorrow.

Here are my tips...

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Nico Rosberg at 8.0
At each of the previous five Bahrain Grand Prix, Nico has finished the race in the position he's started from so he'll be hoping to continue that trend in tomorrow's race.  Although Nico's results so far this season haven't been quite what he would have hoped, that's largely been down to reliability issues (and team orders) rather than a lack of pace.  His impressive qualifying lap suggests the potential is there, but the Mercedes' race pace wasn't quite a match for it's one lap speed at China, so with Vettel and Alonso behind Rosberg on the grid I'm going to minimise the risk by making this an eachway bet.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places.

20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.44
Considering that Lewis Hamilton was the fourth fastest driver during qualifying I was tempted to go for a speculative bet on Lewis at odds of 8.0 to make up places during the race and record his third consecutive podium.  In the end though, given the fact that he doesn't appear to be overly happy with his car, I think a podium might just be a bit too much to ask for Lewis, so I've decided to play it cautious and go for a fairly safe bet on Sebastian Vettel.

Thursday, 18 April 2013

The Bahrain Grand Prix: Sakhir Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Bahrain Grand Prix

There's been a lot of talk about the Pirelli tyres so far this season and some criticism of the fact that the current tyres don't allow the drivers to push 100% for the entire race, and that somehow that devalues the racing.  However, at the Chinese Grand Prix the top five places were Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Vettel and Button ... all former world champions.

This season the opening three Grand Prix have been won by Kimi Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso.  I think it's fair to say that those victories owed more to the fact that Raikkonen, Vettel and Alonso are all brilliant drivers, rather than any random lottery caused by the tyres.  You're never going to produce a tyre which keeps everyone on the grid happy, but the results so far this season would suggest that whatever the tyres, the cream will always rise to the top.

Anyway, onto my pre-qualifying tips for the Bahrain Grand Prix...

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Lewis Hamilton at 11.0 (Price Boost)
Mercedes and Hamilton in particular have been close but not quite there all season.  A race victory in Bahrain might just be beyond them just yet, but with two podiums behind him Lewis nevertheless looks a decent eachway bet.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places.

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Chinese Grand Prix: Shanghai Round-Up

"It's very close to call and a very open championship." ...Fernando Alonso

Before the Grand Prix things were looking perfectly set up for a closely fought race, but in the end Alonso made the victory look easy.  During the closing stages as he cruised away from the chasing pack he even had to be told by his team not to push, to which Fernando replied, rather ominously for his championship rivals, "I'm not pushing."

Onto my tips, and retirements were my undoing this week, as Nico Rosberg and Mark Webber's DNFs meant losses straight away for a big chunk of my tips.  Of my remaining tips a few of them did okay, but not enough to record a profit.

Here's the round-up of exactly how things turned out...

Pre-Qualifying Tips:

Race Winner (eachway): 
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Mark Webber at 9.0 - LOSS
Fuel problems during qualifying meant that Webber's car was unable to provide the required FIA fuel sample and he therefore started from the back of the grid, effectively ruining any chance he had of victory.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places for eachway bets.

Podium Finish:
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Price Boost) - WIN 45 points
It was touch and go there at the end, and you could hear the panic in Lewis' voice as he cut through the traffic and shouted over the radio, "Blue flag!" but in the end he just managed to hang on to the final podium position by 0.203 of a second.

Saturday, 13 April 2013

The Chinese Grand Prix: Shanghai Post-Qualifying Tips

" should be interesting for the fans." ...Jenson Button

With the grid for tomorrow's race settled, my selection of pre-qualifying tips are standing in varying degrees of potential.  Lewis Hamilton for a podium and Nico Rosberg for a top six finish are looking particularly strong, but Mark Webber's fuel problems in qualifying mean his chances of an eachway victory look to be seriously diminished.

An interesting qualifying approach by Sebastian Vettel and Jenson Button means we'll see a mix of strategies in tomorrow's Grand Prix, which should make for an intriguing race.  It also makes for an interesting spread of bets in the race winner market with SkyBet's odds suggesting any number of drivers are in with a shot of the race victory.

There are a lot of ifs and buts to consider, but I'll see how I go with my post-qualifying tips...

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Kimi Raikkonen at 4.5

The odds suggest that the Chinese Grand Prix is looking very open and you could make a case for a number of drivers' chances.  Hamilton, Alonso, Raikkonen and Vettel are all priced as realistic possibilities for the race victory, while Nico Rosberg's odds of 15.0 also make him an appealing bet.

Overall though, I'm torn between Lewis and Kimi, and although in the post qualifying press conference Kimi was playing down the Lotus' pace, he showed in Melbourne that the Lotus can manage its tyres well if we get cooler conditions.  It's a tricky one to predict, and temperature and tyres could be a factor, so I'm going to go for Kimi Raikkonen but with so many contenders and variables, I'm going to make it an eachway bet to minimise my risk.

Thursday, 11 April 2013

The Chinese Grand Prix: Shanghai Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Chinese Grand Prix

Before every Grand Prix I place a few hypothetical pre and post qualifying bets using the odds available from and then compare which set of tips perform best.

So far this season my pre-qualifying tips have out-performed my post-qualifying tips, so I'll see if I can continue that trend at the Chinese Grand Prix...

Race Winner (eachway): 
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Mark Webber at 9.0
Mark is currently second in the championship and Red Bull have the fastest car on the grid, so Webber looks like a reasonable eachway bet at odds of 9.0 for the race victory.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places for eachway bets.

Podium Finish:
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Price Boost)
Mercedes have performed better than expected so far this season, and Lewis has a consistent record at Shanghai (3rd, 1st and 2nd over the last 3 years), so I'm tempted by SkyBet's price boost from 2.88 to 3.0 for Hamilton to finish on the podium.

Thursday, 4 April 2013

How The Odds For The 2013 Drivers' Championship Have Changed Since Pre-Season

Early season movers in the betting market...

Before the Australian Grand Prix I took a look at how the odds for the 2013 Drivers' Championship had changed since the market first opened.

Although it's still too early to have a categoric idea of the pecking order for the season just yet, the last two races have at least given us a reasonable idea of the general form of the teams.  To help me cope with the three week gap between the Malaysian Grand Prix and the Chinese Grand Prix, I've therefore decided to track the latest odds again to see how things have changed since pre-season and see if any trends are emerging.