British Grand Prix: Round-Up

"What a day! I don't think any of us expected it to unfold like this." ...Mark Webber

The British Grand Prix provided dramatic and sometimes spectacular viewing, but not always for the right reasons.  The tyre failures have been well documented but let's not take anything away from some of the brilliant drives we saw from too many drivers to list.  It was a race which gave us excitement and great racing, particularly in the closing laps, so although urgent action is needed to sort out the tyre situation, there still remains a lot to be positive about in current formula 1.

For the second race running my tips had a bad day at the office with the Sebastian Vettel's gearbox problems and Lewis Hamilton's tyre failure causing me a couple of losses and also having a knock on effect with other bets such as Highest Scoring Team and Safety Car.

Also for the second race running, my longer priced riskier bets were especially poor with my eachway bet on Mark Webber being the only bet to make a profit (with an eachway return of 26 points).  This is how my shorter priced bets got on:

Pre-Qualifying - Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.8 - WIN 36 points
Lewis hadn't been happy with his car all throughout practise but when it actually mattered in Q3 he was able to produce a stunning qualifying lap to claim his second pole position of the season.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.53 - LOSS
Lewis Hamilton's phenomenal qualifying lap meant that he qualified on pole by a clear 0.452 of a second ahead of Nico Rosberg.

The British Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"I don't know if Lewis found a short cut or he just found something special here. It was a phenomenal lap." ...Sebastian Vettel

Once again Mercedes demonstrated their exceptional one lap pace but a big question mark still remains as to whether they can maintain that pace in the race, with the bookies making Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular the favourites.

Onto my tips and as usual I've split my predictions into shorter priced bets and also a selection of higher priced riskier bets.  My formula 1 tips made a decent return at Spain and Monaco, but Canada was a disappointing weekend as my form hit a rough patch, so treat the following tips with caution.

Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 2.3 (Sporting Bet)
Lewis Hamilton's lap for pole was described by Vettel as phenomenal but when it comes to race pace most of the experts are still expecting Red Bull to have the edge.  Sebastian Vettel may therefore find that the biggest threat to him for the victory comes from his team-mate Mark Webber.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Mark Webber at 2.1 (32Red)
Mark always goes well at Silverstone and was less than a hundredth of a second behind his team-mate Sebastian Vettel in qualifying, so he looks a decent bet to have a strong race tomorrow and if, as you'd expect, the Red Bull manages its tyres better than the Mercedes then you would have to fancy Webber to achieve his third podium of the season.

The British Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The British Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from recent Grand Prix, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last time out at Canada I gambled on a wet race and as a result my tips performed poorly, so treat the following predictions with caution!

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.8 (SkyBet)
At odds of 1.8 Lewis looks to be priced too short to attract much interest, but he's on a strong run of qualifying form at the moment with four front row starts from the last five Grand Prix, so despite the short odds I'm still going to go for a punt on Lewis Hamilton to make it another front row qualifying position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.53 (SkyBet)
Although the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 is 0.33 seconds, recent races have seen much closely contested qualifying sessions with 0.09 and 0.1 seconds separating the front row of the grid at Monaco and Canada.  Given the current closely matched one lap competitiveness of Mercedes and Red Bull, there looks to be a reasonable chance of this trend continuing.

British Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of pre and post qualifying tips and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For recent Grand Prix, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can see the detailed results in my previous posts, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first seven Grand Prix of the season, as we head to Silverstone the best bets so far have been...

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver - Sebastian Vettel (43.6% profit / £10.05 return from £7 staked)
Podium Finish - Romain Grosjean (71.4% profit / £12 return from £7 staked)
Top Six Finish - Jean-Eric Vergne (142.9% profit / £17 return from £7 staked)
Top Ten Finish - Jean-Eric Vergne (50% profit / £10.50 return from £7 staked)

N.B. The above figures are based on the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of the season based on the odds when the market first opened, i.e. before practise and qualifying.

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.  Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent results.

The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix throughout 2013 for a top six finish...

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

A few days ago I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver market and today I'm going to look at the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of the form in recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the profit you'd have made from a £1 bet if you'd backed the same driver for a podium at each Grand Prix of 2013...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Podium Finish:

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	5.00	1
Kimi Raikkonen	1.42	4
Lewis Hamilton	1.20	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.61	5
Mark Webber	-0.25	2

Fernando Alonso	-0.30	4
Felipe Massa	-2.00	1

Nico Rosberg

-4.80

1

Rest Of The Field

-7.00

0

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Canadian Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  As we have a three week gap between Montreal and Silverstone, I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets over the next few days such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

Once again I've produced two form charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...