The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Post-Qualifying Tips

"It's a little bit of an understatement to say that we have mixed emotions after qualifying." ...Ross Brawn

Once again it was a battle between Mercedes and Red Bull for pole, but the higher temperatures seemed to suit Lotus and Ferrari who weren't too far off the pace and overall things looks well balanced for an exciting race.

Fernando Alonso commented, "It is about the pace tomorrow - not the tyres or the strategy," but if we get a few cars closely matched for pace then strategy could still be the deciding factor.  I personally think Ferrari's strategy of qualifying on the medium tyres could prove to be a shrewd move, but it remains to be seen just how things will play out.

Here are my post-qualifying tips for the German Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 (BetFred)
Ferrari took a bit of a gamble in qualifying by running medium tyres in Q3 and as a result they qualified 7th and 8th.  However, grid position isn't as crucial in modern formula 1 as it was in years gone by and you don't win any points on a Saturday, so it may ultimately prove to be a wise decision by Ferrari to focus on the race.  Alonso goes into this race with three podiums from the last four Grand Prix and on each of those occasions he started 5th, 6th and 9th and has proven to be a driver who consistently makes up places during the races.

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The German Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed some of the most profitable formula 1 bets of the 2013 season, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

As usual I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and also a selection of longer priced more risky bets.

Since I started splitting my tips I've had mixed fortunes, with decent returns at Spain and Monaco but poor results at Canada and Silverstone.  If you prefer to pay more attention to the form guide than my own predictions (which may be wise on current form!) then you can find the formula 1 betting form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Anyway, here are my predictions for the German Grand Prix... 

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.44 (SkyBet)
Given that Lewis has qualified on the front row for the last four Grand Prix now, you can understand why the bookies price him so short.  Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg is priced similarly short (at odds of 1.53) and with four front row finishes from the last five qualifying sessions he's also worth considering, but Lewis is the driver I'm going for.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on 0.15 Seconds Or More at 1.67 (SkyBet)
It's fairly competitive at the front of the field between Mercedes and Red Bull right now, but the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 has been 0.39 and only two qualifying sessions this season have seen a front row separated by less than 0.15 seconds.

German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As there's only one week between the British and German Grand Prix, I haven't had a chance to provide the usual detailed driver by driver analysis of each formula 1 betting market, so instead I'm just going to post an overall summary showing details of the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

Based on the statistics from the first eight Grand Prix of the season, as we head to the Nurburgring the best bets so far have been...

The British Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"I don't know if Lewis found a short cut or he just found something special here. It was a phenomenal lap." ...Sebastian Vettel

Once again Mercedes demonstrated their exceptional one lap pace but a big question mark still remains as to whether they can maintain that pace in the race, with the bookies making Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular the favourites.

Onto my tips and as usual I've split my predictions into shorter priced bets and also a selection of higher priced riskier bets.  My formula 1 tips made a decent return at Spain and Monaco, but Canada was a disappointing weekend as my form hit a rough patch, so treat the following tips with caution.

Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 2.3 (Sporting Bet)
Lewis Hamilton's lap for pole was described by Vettel as phenomenal but when it comes to race pace most of the experts are still expecting Red Bull to have the edge.  Sebastian Vettel may therefore find that the biggest threat to him for the victory comes from his team-mate Mark Webber.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Mark Webber at 2.1 (32Red)
Mark always goes well at Silverstone and was less than a hundredth of a second behind his team-mate Sebastian Vettel in qualifying, so he looks a decent bet to have a strong race tomorrow and if, as you'd expect, the Red Bull manages its tyres better than the Mercedes then you would have to fancy Webber to achieve his third podium of the season.

The British Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The British Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from recent Grand Prix, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last time out at Canada I gambled on a wet race and as a result my tips performed poorly, so treat the following predictions with caution!

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.8 (SkyBet)
At odds of 1.8 Lewis looks to be priced too short to attract much interest, but he's on a strong run of qualifying form at the moment with four front row starts from the last five Grand Prix, so despite the short odds I'm still going to go for a punt on Lewis Hamilton to make it another front row qualifying position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.53 (SkyBet)
Although the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 is 0.33 seconds, recent races have seen much closely contested qualifying sessions with 0.09 and 0.1 seconds separating the front row of the grid at Monaco and Canada.  Given the current closely matched one lap competitiveness of Mercedes and Red Bull, there looks to be a reasonable chance of this trend continuing.

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As there's a three week gap between Montreal and Silverstone that's meant more time for me to analyse some of the various formula 1 betting markets, and therefore today I'm going to take a look at some of the betting markets I don't always get a chance to cover, such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

As you'll see, it's worth looking beyond the Winning Driver market as there are profits to be made in some of the other formula 1 betting markets...

Fastest Lap:

First of all, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap market:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Esteban Gutierrez	94.00	1
Sergio Perez	14.00	1
Sebastian Vettel	5.08	3
Mark Webber	5.00	1
Kimi Raikkonen	3.00	1

Rest Of The Field

-7.00

0

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Canadian Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  As we have a three week gap between Montreal and Silverstone, I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets over the next few days such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

Once again I've produced two form charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

The Canadian Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"Of course I am happy but there are no points given in qualifying." ...Valtteri Bottas 

At the Monaco Grand Prix, it was my longer priced pre-qualifying tips which performed strongly with a return of 326 points from an initial 100 points.  However, my shorter priced post-qualifying tips still did reasonably okay making a slight profit of 26 points, so I'll see how I get on this time out.

Due to the possibility of a wet race, in general I've stayed away from heavy favourites when making these predictions, but if we get a dry race then that may prove to be an unwise strategy, so it's probably advisable to wait until closer to the Grand Prix and then assessing the weather before deciding on your bets.

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 4.5 (William Hill)
Earlier in the season Mercedes went through a pattern of falling away during the races, but they seemed to have made improvements in that respect at Monaco, and the cooler temperatures may also help them to stretch the life of their tyres.  If that proves to be the case then odds of 4.5 for a Nico Rosberg podium seem quite tempting given that he starts from 4th.

The Canadian Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Canadian Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from the last two races, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last time at Monaco thanks to bets such as 'Double Red Bull podium', 'Romain Grosjean not to be classified' and 'Nico Rosberg to be fastest qualifier' my longer priced tips performed extremely well making a return of 324 points from an initial 100 points and therefore an overall profit of 224 points.  My supposedly 'safer bets' however performed disappointingly, returning only 38 points from 100 points, so bear in mind that there's no such thing as a safe bet.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Canadian Grand Prix split into two categories...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Qualifier:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 3.5 (Ladbrokes)
Mercedes are the team in form when it comes to qualifying pace and Nico Rosberg currently has the upper hand over Lewis Hamilton with a run of three consecutive pole positions.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.83 (SkyBet)
Kimi Raikkonen had a result to forget at Monaco, but he's generally been a solid podium bet with four podiums from six Grand Prix in 2013.

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before I make my tips for the Canadian Grand Prix, I'm going to sneak in one more post analysing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market and following the trend with my previous two posts, once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts.  The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of 2013 for a top six finish...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Top Six Finish:

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Lewis Hamilton	1.52	5
Sebastian Vettel	1.51	6
Felipe Massa	1.26	4
Mark Webber	0.49	4
Nico Rosberg	-0.18	4
Romain Grosjean	-0.37	1
Kimi Raikkonen	-0.70	4
Sergio Perez	-1.00	1
Jenson Button	-1.42	2
Fernando Alonso	-2.16	3
Paul Di Resta	-2.25	1
Adrian Sutil	-3.25	1

Rest Of The Field

-6.00

0

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In my last post I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver market and this time it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts, with the first showing the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver for a podium at each Grand Prix of 2013...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Podium Finish:

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	6.00	1
Kimi Raikkonen	2.42	4
Mark Webber	0.75	2
Sebastian Vettel	0.11	4
Lewis Hamilton	0.00	2

Fernando Alonso	-0.83	3
Felipe Massa	-1.00	1

Nico Rosberg

-3.80

1

Rest Of The Field

-6.00

0

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Monaco Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  My schedule over the next week means I won't be covering quite as many betting markets this time around, but I'll start things off today with the Winning Driver market.

However, obviously in formula 1 as in all sports, recent form has more relevance than the results earlier in the season, so this time out I've produced two charts.

The first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is my home.  I've grown up here all my life and it's really special." ...Nico Rosberg

In the first few laps after the pitstops, Vettel's race engineer reported to Vettel on the radio that his tyres from the first stint had been marginal.  Rosberg's engineer on the other hand revealed that the tyres from his first stint had held up well (still at 60%), and while you never know how much of radio transmissions are intended for the driver and how much are for the benefit of rival teams, from that point on it looked like it was Rosberg's race.

At the Spanish Grand Prix my post-qualifying tips did pretty well with my 'Playing It Safe' tips returning 263 points from 100 points, and although my return wasn't quite as impressive this week, things nevertheless still went reasonably well with a return of 126 points.

However, my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips were the bets that really performed strongly this time out with an excellent return of 324 points from 100 points, which I have to admit was a lot better than I was expecting!  I suppose it shows that if you're going to go for a risky longer priced bet then before qualifying is the time to do it (especially at Monaco), as once the grid is decided then the bookies are obviously going to shorten the odds of any driver with a realistic chance of doing well, and longer priced bets worth considering are going to be harder to find.

This is the detailed report on how my tips got on starting with my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips...

The Monaco Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"We know that race pace has been our weakness.  We'll have to wait until tomorrow to find out if this will be enough.” ...Nico Rosberg

After the end of P3, I was feeling reasonably satisfied with how my tips were looking.  However, the rain at the start of Q1 served as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of formula 1 and it looked initially like qualifying might potentially throw up a few surprises.

In the end though, it was more or less business as usual with Nico Rosberg claiming his third consecutive pole and team-mate Lewis Hamilton lining up behind him to make it another front row lock out for Mercedes.

Last time out at Spain it was my post qualifying tips which recorded the best performance so I'm under pressure to repeat that form...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Winning Driver:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 5.0 (Bet365 enhanced odds)
Each of the last four Monaco Grand Prix have been won by the driver who started on pole, so you can understand why the bookies have Nico Rosberg as the favourite.  However, Fernando Alonso showed at the Spanish Grand Prix that modern formula 1 doesn't necessarily follow the trend of the history books.  Monaco is a different matter again of course, but Sebastian Vettel was only a tenth of a second off Nico Rosberg's pole lap time so I'm therefore sticking with my pre-weekend prediction of Sebastian Vettel for the victory.

The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Monaco Grand Prix

Yesterday I posted the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  As usual, as we approach Sunday's race I'm also going to make a set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Monaco Grand Prix and then see how I get on compared to the form guide.

Following the pattern I started for Spain, I'm going to start with a series of shorter priced bets and then follow this with a selection of higher priced risky bets.  Bear in mind also that last time out my post-qualifying tips resoundly outperformed my pre-qualifying tips, so it may be wiser to wait until the form of the teams becomes more apparent later in the weekend before placing any bets.

Also bear in mind that I'm making these tips before first practise, and practise at Monaco takes place a day earlier than usual on the Thursday, so the odds may well change once the bookies get a chance to analyse the practise times.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix split into two categories...

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 4 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in the most popular formula 1 betting markets, and today I'm going to feature one final round-up covering a variety of bets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier and a few other of the less popular formula 1 bets.

As you'll see, it's worth keeping an eye of some of the following betting markets as there are profits to be made...

Fastest Lap:

To start things off, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap market:

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 3 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the formula 1 'Betting Profit' charts so far this season for the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets, and today it's the turn of the Top Ten Finish market.

For the benefit of anyone new to this blog, the following 'Betting Proft' chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver for a top ten finish at every Grand Prix during 2013:

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 2 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the build up to the Spanish Grand Prix, I went over the most profitable bets and the safest bets so far this season, and so as Monaco approaches I'm once again featuring a series of posts analysing the best bets so far this season in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

Yesterday I posted the 'Betting Profit' charts for the Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting markets, which you can find at the following link:
The Form Guide After Spain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Today it's the turn of the Top Six Finish betting market and for the benefit of anyone new to this blog, the following chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver for a top six finish at every Grand Prix during 2013:

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 1 - Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

After Bahrain, to help me cope with the three week gap until Spain, I compiled a few charts which analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Once again in the build up to Monaco I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts, starting first of all with the charts for the Winning Driver and Podium Finish markets.

Fernando Alonso's victory in front of his home crowd at Spain means we've still only had three winners so far this season...

Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Round-Up

"You feel the support from everyone and it helped." ...Fernando Alonso.

During the opening ten laps or so, the in-play betting had Vettel priced as the slight favourite over Alonso for victory at the Spanish Grand Prix.  However, once the strategies began to emerge it soon became clear that Alonso had the edge, and in fact in the end it proved to a reasonably comfortable victory for Fernando, with Vettel eventually slipping back to 4th place, and Kimi Raikkonen proving to be Alonso's closest challenger.

Before the race I split my tips into two categories, 'Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets' and 'Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets', and on the basis of Spain the results would suggest that it's wiser to stay away from the long-shots and stick to drivers from the group of favourites.  Five of my six 'Playing It Safe' tips were winning bets, recording an overall return of 263 points from a 100 point initial outlay.

Here's the detailed report on how my tips got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 5.0 - WIN 100 points
The Circuit de Catalunya had never previously hosted a Grand Prix where the winner had started from fifth on the grid, but modern formula 1 with its DRS, KERS and 'racey' tyres allowed Fernando Alonso's brilliance to earn the victory that the home fans were hoping for.

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.57 - WIN 16 points
Kimi continued his impressive consistent run of form to record his fourth podium of the season.