The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Tips

"The car feels really good so his [Vettel's] car must feel incredible! " ...Lewis Hamilton

Last time out at Spa I correctly predicted Lewis Hamilton for pole position, but other than that my pre-qualifying tips had a disappointing weekend.  It may therefore be wiser to pay closer attention to the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets this weekend.

It's a crucial weekend for the championship, and the likes of Lewis, Fernando and Kimi really have to start beating Sebastion sooner rather than later if we're going to have a close championship battle, but so far this weekend Red Bull are looking very strong as usual.

It's worth mentioning that the weather forecast is predicting 'scattered thunderstorms over the weekend', so it may be wiser to wait until Sunday morning (when a more accurate idea of the possibility of a wet race should be available) before placing your formula 1 bets this weekend.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.0 (Boylesports)
Lewis has had a mixed weekend so far, with the fastest time in P1 and a less impressive P2, but he arrives at Monza on the back of two podium finishes and he won here last year.  Monza is generally also kinder to tyres than some tracks, which should suit Mercedes, so the odds of 2.0 offered by Boylesports for a Lewis Hamilton podium seem reasonable.

Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at Spa.

The Belgian Grand Prix was far from beng a classic, but qualifying provided dramatic entertainment right up to the final seconds.

So to tell the story of qualifying from a betting point of view, I've recorded the 'bet in play' odds for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

The Bet In Play odds for qualifying at the Belgian Grand Prix.

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso

Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability.  It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent with his contract negotiations for next season!).  Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've so far analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Jean-Eric Vergne	5.00	1
Jenson Button	1.46	2
Lewis Hamilton	0.91	5
Romain Grosjean	0.70	2
Fernando Alonso	0.39	5
Mark Webber	0.37	5
Kimi Raikkonen	0.31	4
Sebastian Vettel	-0.04	5
Nico Rosberg	-0.94	4
Felipe Massa	-2.09	2
Adrian Sutil	-2.58	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first weighted in favour of recent races (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	6.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	4.00	1
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	2
Fernando Alonso	-2.88	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Hungarian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the leading contenders during the Hungarian Grand Prix

In the end it all seemed relatively straight forward for Lewis Hamilton, but for the first 17 laps of the race it was Sebastian Vettel (and very briefly Romain Grosjean) who were regarded as the favourites by the bookies.

This is the chart which shows the bet in play odds throughout the race:

Hungarian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at the Hungaroring.

At Hungary throughout each qualifying session I recorded the 'bet in play' odds available from SkyBet for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

Hungarian Grand Prix: Round-Up

"If we can be quick here in a race with these track temperatures, then I'm very hopeful that we can be competitive everywhere else."  ...Lewis Hamilton

After qualifying Lewis Hamilton was declaring that it would be a miracle if he won the race, which just shows that you should never pay much attention to what drivers say!  Tyres never looked to be an issue at all, which is an encouraging sign for Mercedes as we head into the second half of the season.

When it came to my tips, it was a case of too many near misses costing me on too many occasions.  As previously mentioned, I'm going to be keeping a running tally of how my tips perform, so here's the report on how things turned out...

Pre Qualifying Tips

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet) - LOSS
Around about lap 20, Alonso's 'bet in play' odds to win the race came down to 9.0 and he was looking in the mix for a podium.   However, by the midway stage of the race it was clear that Alonso was losing ground and he eventually finished in 5th position, 19 seconds behind Vettel's podium time.

Qualifying Match Bets:
10 point accumulator on:  (Bet365) - WIN 19 points
Lewis Hamilton V Nico Rosberg - Lewis Hamilton at 1.57
Sebastian Vettel V Mark Webber - Sebastian Vettel at 1.2

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The German Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed some of the most profitable formula 1 bets of the 2013 season, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

As usual I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and also a selection of longer priced more risky bets.

Since I started splitting my tips I've had mixed fortunes, with decent returns at Spain and Monaco but poor results at Canada and Silverstone.  If you prefer to pay more attention to the form guide than my own predictions (which may be wise on current form!) then you can find the formula 1 betting form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Anyway, here are my predictions for the German Grand Prix... 

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.44 (SkyBet)
Given that Lewis has qualified on the front row for the last four Grand Prix now, you can understand why the bookies price him so short.  Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg is priced similarly short (at odds of 1.53) and with four front row finishes from the last five qualifying sessions he's also worth considering, but Lewis is the driver I'm going for.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on 0.15 Seconds Or More at 1.67 (SkyBet)
It's fairly competitive at the front of the field between Mercedes and Red Bull right now, but the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 has been 0.39 and only two qualifying sessions this season have seen a front row separated by less than 0.15 seconds.

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.  Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent results.

The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix throughout 2013 for a top six finish...

The Canadian Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Canadian Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from the last two races, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last time at Monaco thanks to bets such as 'Double Red Bull podium', 'Romain Grosjean not to be classified' and 'Nico Rosberg to be fastest qualifier' my longer priced tips performed extremely well making a return of 324 points from an initial 100 points and therefore an overall profit of 224 points.  My supposedly 'safer bets' however performed disappointingly, returning only 38 points from 100 points, so bear in mind that there's no such thing as a safe bet.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Canadian Grand Prix split into two categories...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Qualifier:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 3.5 (Ladbrokes)
Mercedes are the team in form when it comes to qualifying pace and Nico Rosberg currently has the upper hand over Lewis Hamilton with a run of three consecutive pole positions.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.83 (SkyBet)
Kimi Raikkonen had a result to forget at Monaco, but he's generally been a solid podium bet with four podiums from six Grand Prix in 2013.

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before I make my tips for the Canadian Grand Prix, I'm going to sneak in one more post analysing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market and following the trend with my previous two posts, once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts.  The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of 2013 for a top six finish...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Top Six Finish:

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Lewis Hamilton	1.52	5
Sebastian Vettel	1.51	6
Felipe Massa	1.26	4
Mark Webber	0.49	4
Nico Rosberg	-0.18	4
Romain Grosjean	-0.37	1
Kimi Raikkonen	-0.70	4
Sergio Perez	-1.00	1
Jenson Button	-1.42	2
Fernando Alonso	-2.16	3
Paul Di Resta	-2.25	1
Adrian Sutil	-3.25	1

Rest Of The Field

-6.00

0

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 2: Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

To help me cope with my formula 1 withdrawal symptoms during the three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, a few days ago I analysed the Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting markets to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets so far this season.

Not surprisingly, Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen have been two of the safest drivers to bet on so far, but if you want to see the full Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting profit charts then you can find them at the following link:

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Today I move onto the Top Six betting market and just to explain once again, the following chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver for a top six finish at every Grand Prix:

The Bahrain Grand Prix: Sakhir Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Bahrain Grand Prix

Qualifying threw up a few surprises with Nico Rosberg taking pole by over quarter of a second.  Vettel and Alonso line up behind him with Raikkonen and Hamilton back in 8th and 9th, so it promises to be another interesting Grand Prix tomorrow.

Here are my tips...

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Nico Rosberg at 8.0
At each of the previous five Bahrain Grand Prix, Nico has finished the race in the position he's started from so he'll be hoping to continue that trend in tomorrow's race.  Although Nico's results so far this season haven't been quite what he would have hoped, that's largely been down to reliability issues (and team orders) rather than a lack of pace.  His impressive qualifying lap suggests the potential is there, but the Mercedes' race pace wasn't quite a match for it's one lap speed at China, so with Vettel and Alonso behind Rosberg on the grid I'm going to minimise the risk by making this an eachway bet.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places.

Podium: 
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.44
Considering that Lewis Hamilton was the fourth fastest driver during qualifying I was tempted to go for a speculative bet on Lewis at odds of 8.0 to make up places during the race and record his third consecutive podium.  In the end though, given the fact that he doesn't appear to be overly happy with his car, I think a podium might just be a bit too much to ask for Lewis, so I've decided to play it cautious and go for a fairly safe bet on Sebastian Vettel.

The Bahrain Grand Prix: Sakhir Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Bahrain Grand Prix

There's been a lot of talk about the Pirelli tyres so far this season and some criticism of the fact that the current tyres don't allow the drivers to push 100% for the entire race, and that somehow that devalues the racing.  However, at the Chinese Grand Prix the top five places were Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Vettel and Button ... all former world champions.

This season the opening three Grand Prix have been won by Kimi Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso.  I think it's fair to say that those victories owed more to the fact that Raikkonen, Vettel and Alonso are all brilliant drivers, rather than any random lottery caused by the tyres.  You're never going to produce a tyre which keeps everyone on the grid happy, but the results so far this season would suggest that whatever the tyres, the cream will always rise to the top.

Anyway, onto my pre-qualifying tips for the Bahrain Grand Prix...

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Lewis Hamilton at 11.0 (Price Boost)
Mercedes and Hamilton in particular have been close but not quite there all season.  A race victory in Bahrain might just be beyond them just yet, but with two podiums behind him Lewis nevertheless looks a decent eachway bet.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places.

The Chinese Grand Prix: Shanghai Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Chinese Grand Prix

Before every Grand Prix I place a few hypothetical pre and post qualifying bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and then compare which set of tips perform best.

So far this season my pre-qualifying tips have out-performed my post-qualifying tips, so I'll see if I can continue that trend at the Chinese Grand Prix...

Race Winner (eachway): 
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Mark Webber at 9.0
Mark is currently second in the championship and Red Bull have the fastest car on the grid, so Webber looks like a reasonable eachway bet at odds of 9.0 for the race victory.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places for eachway bets.

Podium Finish:
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Price Boost)
Mercedes have performed better than expected so far this season, and Lewis has a consistent record at Shanghai (3rd, 1st and 2nd over the last 3 years), so I'm tempted by SkyBet's price boost from 2.88 to 3.0 for Hamilton to finish on the podium.