Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Round-Up

Team orders meant my tips came undone this week...

I had two near misses on potential big wins this week as my tips for the Malaysian Grand Prix were undone by team orders; on one occasion by team orders being obeyed and on another occasion by them being disobeyed.

Formula 1 wouldn't be the same without a bit of controversy though, so despite my two near misses (otherwise known as failures), I've totally enjoyed the excitement and entertainment provided so far this season.

Despite making an overall loss, a few tips came up, so this is the summary of how things went...

Pre-Qualifying Tips

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0 - LOSS
As Murray Walker used to say 'if is formula 1 spelt backwards' and if Sebastian Vettel had obeyed team orders this would have been a big winning bet.  However, as Ron Dennis used to say, 'second place is first of the losers' and unfortunately second place for Mark meant this was a losing bet.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 2.25 - WIN 45 points
Mercedes had a strong weekend and in the end Nico was very vocal in expressing his disappointment at not being allowed to pass his team-mate Lewis (who was short fuelled and therefore cruising to the end) for a podium finish.  Nico still brought his car home in 4th though, to ensure this was a winning bet.

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.  At the Australian Grand Prix my pre-qualifying tips came out on top so I'll see if I can do better with my post-qualifying tips this time.

According to the weather forecast there's a 60% chance of rain for tomorrow's race (at the time of writing) with the chance of a storm being mentioned by some forecasters, so the uncertainty introduces a bigger element of randomness than we could usually expect before a race.  I'm therefore going to take a gamble on a wet race and stay away from the favourites and instead edge towards some of the longer priced drivers with my tips for tomorrow's race.

Race Winner:
10 points on Felipe Massa at 9.0
Felipe is on an upward curve at the moment and has now out-qualified his team-mate Alonso for the fourth successive Grand Prix.  Fernando has consistently shown that he has the upper hand during races, however, so you can understand why the bookies price him much shorter than Massa for the victory, but I'm nevertheless tempted by a small speculative bet on Felipe Massa at odds of 9.0.

Podium:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 5.5
Nico Rosberg was confident that he was looking at a chance of pole position if the rain hadn't came, and the Mercedes' pace in the dry looks impressive.  This is a tip which could be affected by the unpredictability of a wet race but Mercedes have shown solid form so far this weekend, so odds of 5.5 for Nico to take a podium seem like reasonable value.

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.

My pre-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix sneaked a small profit so I'll see if I can make that a bigger profit for the Malaysian Grand Prix...

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0
Given the variety of race winners we had in 2012, the winning driver market was the trickiest betting market to make a profit from last season.  I'm therefore cautious about going for the favourites at this early stage of the season.  The form of the Red Bulls so far this weekend has looked potentially good enough for a victory with Mark Webber going fastest in first practise.  Admittedly that doesn't mean a great deal, but Mark nevertheless looks reasonable value for a small speculative bet at odds of 13.0.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 1.67
In 2012 Alonso Fernando was an excellent bet in the Podium Finish market and he seems to have started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place in Melbourne.  Despite his short odds therefore I'm going to go for Fernando Alonso for another podium finish at odds of 1.67.