The Korean Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“There is always some action in this race." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Korean Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided, it's time to make another set of predictions...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (BetFred)
Ferrari have looked to be a bit off the pace so far this weekend but interestingly, Alonso and Massa recorded the two fastest speeds in the speed trap during qualifying, so it looks as if their cars are set up with overtaking in mind during the race.  Alonso started 9th, 5th and 7th at the three previous Grand Prix this season and on each of those occasions ultimately finished in second place.  Fernando has also made up places at each of the three previous Korean Grand Prix, so starting from fifth another podium looks to be within his capabilities.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None' at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This bet has paid out at every Grand Prix except Monza so once again I'm going to go for a punt on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None'.

The Singapore Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“It was a strange feeling when you see the others making their final attempt and there’s nothing you can do. " ...Sebastian Vettel

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix and now that we know the starting grid, it's time to make another set of predictions.

There weren't a lot of bets which stood out as instantly appealing, but I've picked out a few, so here are my post-qualifying predictions for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power)
Alonso has a decent record here, winning in 2008* and 2010 and finishing on the podium at all but one of the five previous Singapore Grand Prix.  He also came from 9th and 5th on the grid to finish 2nd at each of the previous two Grand Prix of 2013, so starting from 7th doesn't necessarily rule him out of another podium.  It's trickier to overtake at Singapore than at Spa and Monza obviously, but strategy can come into play, and the safety car has been deployed at least once at every Singapore Grand Prix, so pitstop timing could be key. 

* Admittedly thanks to a little help from 'Crashgate'.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Tips

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing."  However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather generous.

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Post-Qualifying Tips

"In these conditions, it's more of a lottery and the driver can make more of a difference. " ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

I've pretty much banked on a wet race with several of these tips, but I reckon the wisest strategy is probably to check the weather predictions closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred)
Alonso was unlucky with the timing of the rain in Q3 and as a result ended up 9th on the grid, but he had the pace in Q1 and Q2, and he seems confident for his chances in the race.  Track position isn't as vital at Spa as at certain other tracks, especially if we get a wet race, so although Fernando's podium consistency hasn't been quite as strong this year as it was in 2012, odds of 3.0 are enough to tempt me into a small bet on Alonso to make up places during the race and finish on the podium.

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Hungarian Grand Prix

For previous Grand Prix I've given myself 100 points and then made a selection of pre and post qualifying tips split between shorter and longer priced bets.

However, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category for every Grand Prix to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to decide whether it's better to place your bets before or after qualifying and also make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots.

If I'd followed this format since the Spanish Grand Prix (when I first started splitting my tips into shorter priced and longer priced bets), then my Post-Qualifying Shorter Priced Tips would currently be on a total of 204 points, i.e. a cumulative profit of 104 points.  My Post-Qualifying Longer Priced Tips and Pre-Qualifying Shorter Priced tips on the other hand would both be completely wiped out, suggesting a punt on relatively low-risk bets after qualifying is maybe the safest strategy to follow.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and I'll see how I get on...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet)
Red Bull have grabbed the headlines with a one two in both P1 and P2, and Vettel has reportedly also had the fastest long run pace, but at such short odds he doesn't hold much appeal.  There hasn't been that much in it at the front with the Lotus and Ferrari drivers in the mix behind Red Bull, and in P2 Fernando was less than two tenths of a second behind Vettel.  Alonso also tends to make up places during the race, so if he gets a decent qualifying position then he looks to be a decent podium bet.

Canadian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Canadian Grand Prix.

As I mentioned in my previous post, the bet in play odds during the Canadian Grand Prix weren't particularly surprising given that Sebastian Vettel always looked in control, but here's the bet in play chart anyway just in case anyone's interested:

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 1 - Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

After Bahrain, to help me cope with the three week gap until Spain, I compiled a few charts which analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Once again in the build up to Monaco I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts, starting first of all with the charts for the Winning Driver and Podium Finish markets.

Fernando Alonso's victory in front of his home crowd at Spain means we've still only had three winners so far this season...

Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Spanish Grand Prix.

Usually when I have a bet on formula 1, I generally prefer to wait until after qualifying as by this stage of the weekend the form of the various teams is starting to emerge and it's therefore possible to make a more educated guess as to how things will turn out.  It's quite rare therefore that I'll have a bet before qualifying and even rarer again that I'll ever bother with 'bet in play'.

However, just for a change, during the Spanish Grand Prix I monitored the 'bet in play' odds every few laps to see how the bookies resasessed their opinion of the potential winner as the Grand Prix progressed.  This is a graph of the odds:

Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Round-Up

"You feel the support from everyone and it helped." ...Fernando Alonso.

During the opening ten laps or so, the in-play betting had Vettel priced as the slight favourite over Alonso for victory at the Spanish Grand Prix.  However, once the strategies began to emerge it soon became clear that Alonso had the edge, and in fact in the end it proved to a reasonably comfortable victory for Fernando, with Vettel eventually slipping back to 4th place, and Kimi Raikkonen proving to be Alonso's closest challenger.

Before the race I split my tips into two categories, 'Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets' and 'Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets', and on the basis of Spain the results would suggest that it's wiser to stay away from the long-shots and stick to drivers from the group of favourites.  Five of my six 'Playing It Safe' tips were winning bets, recording an overall return of 263 points from a 100 point initial outlay.

Here's the detailed report on how my tips got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 5.0 - WIN 100 points
The Circuit de Catalunya had never previously hosted a Grand Prix where the winner had started from fifth on the grid, but modern formula 1 with its DRS, KERS and 'racey' tyres allowed Fernando Alonso's brilliance to earn the victory that the home fans were hoping for.

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.57 - WIN 16 points
Kimi continued his impressive consistent run of form to record his fourth podium of the season.

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.

My pre-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix sneaked a small profit so I'll see if I can make that a bigger profit for the Malaysian Grand Prix...

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0
Given the variety of race winners we had in 2012, the winning driver market was the trickiest betting market to make a profit from last season.  I'm therefore cautious about going for the favourites at this early stage of the season.  The form of the Red Bulls so far this weekend has looked potentially good enough for a victory with Mark Webber going fastest in first practise.  Admittedly that doesn't mean a great deal, but Mark nevertheless looks reasonable value for a small speculative bet at odds of 13.0.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 1.67
In 2012 Alonso Fernando was an excellent bet in the Podium Finish market and he seems to have started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place in Melbourne.  Despite his short odds therefore I'm going to go for Fernando Alonso for another podium finish at odds of 1.67.

Driver Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season

An analysis of the most popular formula 1 betting market for 2013.

A couple of months ago I took a look at the odds for the 2013 formula 1 drivers' championship, so with the new season now only a week away I thought it would be interesting to look at how those odds have changed since the bookies first started taking bets on the forthcoming season.

In my original post I grouped the drivers into three categories; the favourites, the outside contenders and the longshots, so once again I'll look at the odds for these three groups.

The favourites:

	Early Odds	Current Odds
Sebastian Vettel	2.25	2.5
Fernando Alonso	3.25	4.0

It's no surprise that the bookies make Vettel and Alonso the favourites, but it's interesting that the odds for both Vettel and Alonso have drifted out slightly since the market opened.  Given the fact that the relative performances of the teams at the start of the season always contains an element of the unknown, my own personal view is that anyone wanting to place a bet on Vettel or Alonso for the championship would maybe be wise to wait until after the Australia Grand Prix, as whatever the result in Melbourne their odds are unlikely to shorten dramatically.

Which Formula 1 Driver Is The Most Popular In His Home Country?

How popular are formula 1 drivers in their own countries based on number of Google searches?

In my previous post, The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion, I compiled a list of the formula 1 drivers who took part in the 2012 formula 1 championship ranked in order of who gets the most searches on Google.  You can check out the results here:

The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion!

To quickly recap, the figures were based on the average number of worldwide searches per month on Google for each driver.  To investigate things further I decided to also look up the number of Google searches that each driver gets in their home country and see what effect that had on the rankings.  However, countries like Finland obviously have a smaller population than the likes of Germany, Spain and the UK, so the figures wouldn’t really mean much if I simply left things like that.

To ensure a level playing field, I therefore then adjusted the figures to produce the number of annual Google searches per 1,000 of the population in each driver’s home country.

Here are the results:

The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion!

Which formula 1 driver is the most searched for on Google...

During the winter break I always get formula 1 withdrawal symptoms, so to help me pass the time until the new season begins, I decided to do some research and investigate which of the current drivers are the most popular with fans.  There isn’t really a scientific way of doing this without asking every formula 1 fan in the world, but I thought the next best thing would be to check the number of searches each driver gets on Google every month and then list the drivers in order of Google popularity.

For those who don’t know already, as well as their famous search engine, Google also have a cool feature called Google Keywords Tool which allows you to look up how many searches a particular search term gets on average per month.

Anyway, at the end of 2012 I did a check for each of the 25 drivers who took part in the 2012 formula 1 driver’s championship and then ranked them in order to see how closely the Google table compares with the actual final standings of the 2012 driver’s championship.

So in keeping with tradition, here is the list of formula 1 drivers ranked by monthly Google searches in reverse order…

Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos Tips Round-Up

An unbelievably exciting finish to an absolutely classic season.

Before I move onto my tips I just want to say how much I've absolutely loved the 2012 formula 1 season.  I first got into formula 1 during the days of Michael Schumacher, Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve, Mika Hakkinen, etc, and although those first few few seasons as a formula 1 fan got me completely hooked, I think it's fair to say that in terms of excitement and entertainment the bar just keeps getting higher.

Credit to the drivers for some of the amazing races we've witnessed this season and credit also to all the teams for the current atmosphere of co-operation which has allowed rivalries to be put aside for the greater good of the sport.  Today's race has to go down as another brilliantly dramatic finale to a formula 1 season and I'm already looking forward to 2013.

Anyway, this is how my post-qualifying tips performed...

Race Winner:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.38 - LOSS
Things were looking good for Lewis Hamilton until lap 54 when Nico Hulkenberg slid into him at the first corner and put him out of the race.

Race Winner (Eachway):
10 points on Felipe Massa at 34.0 (5 points on the win - LOSS, 5 points eachway - WIN 33 points)*
Felipe Massa rounded off his strong finish to the season with a podium at his home Grand Prix, ensuring a return of 33 points from this bet.

* On an eachway bet, SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first three places.

United States Grand Prix: Austin Tips Round-Up

An exciting Grand Prix, but an average performance from my formula 1 tips...

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Both sets of tips performed quite averagely this week, although once again my post-qualifying tips just managed to outperform my pre-qualifying tips, so the way things are developing it’s looking like waiting until after qualifying before placing your formula 1 bets is definitely a wise strategy.

This is how my post-qualifying tips performed…

To Finish On The Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.5 – WIN 35 points
Fernando is becoming the master at qualifying on the 3rd or 4th row of the grid and then making up a few places during the race to finish up on the podium and he did it once again at the United States Grand Prix.  He was arguably helped by Ferrari’s clever and sneaky tactic of forcing a five grid sot penalty for Felipe Massa by breaking the seal on his gear box, but I think there’s a strong case that even without this pre-race tactic Fernando would very probably have still made the podium.  Anyway, if he qualifies in a similar position at Brazil then he’s worth considering once again for another podium finish.

Top Six Finish:
15 points on Kimi Raikkonen at odds of 1.33 – WIN 20 points
Kimi has been the model of consistency in the Top Six market, and has now made it 12 top six finishes from the last 13 Grand Prix.

The United States Grand Prix: Austin Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The United States Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:
The United States Grand Prix: Austin Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips...

To Finish On The Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.5
If Vettel wins the race then Alonso needs to finish at least 4th to take the championship battle to the final round of the season in Brazil next week, so you can guarantee that Fernando will be giving it his all to make up as many places as possible.  Alonso had a disappointing qualifying session but that's been the story of his last few Grand Prix weekends and it hasn't stopped him from making the podium in 5 of the last 6 races.  One of Fernando's strengths is that he consistently makes up places during the race, so even starting from 8th on the grid he can't be written off.

Top Six Finish:
15 points on Kimi Raikkonen at odds of 1.33
Kimi has been the model of consistency in this market, notching 11 top six finishes from the last 12 Grand Prix.  On the back of his brilliant drive at Abu Dhabi I'm therefore going to go for a cagey bet on Kimi Raikkonen to record yet another top six finish.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Round-Up

Once again my post-qualifying tips outperformed my pre-qualifying tips

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Once again my post-qualifying tips outperformed my pre-qualifying tips, making a modest profit for the second week running, so the way things are developing it’s looking like after qualifying is definitely the best time to place your formula 1 bets…

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Lap 1 Leader:

10 points on Mark Webber at 6.0 - LOSS

Webber made a very poor start and wasted his strong qualifying, so this bet was already looking doomed by the first corner.

To Finish On The Podium:

20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.63 – WIN 53 points

With the benefit of hindsight, I was too conservative with this bet but nevertheless Kimi justified his pre-race confidence with a strong controlled performance.  He made an excellent getaway from the grid which meant he was perfectly placed to capitalise when Lewis suffered more mechanical woes.

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best. 

GP Winning Margin:
20 points on 6 Seconds Or More at 1.73
All of Sebastian Vettel's four recent victories have been won by more than 6 seconds.  Maybe part of the reason for this is that Vettel, being the competitive racer he is, likes to put in fast laps in the closing stages of a Grand Prix in an attempt to get the fastest lap of the race.  Whatever the reason, we haven't seen a really close finish for a while now so a winning margin of more than 6 seconds would seem to be the bet to go for.

To Win Outright:
10 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.73
The unpredictability of the start of the season now feels a long time ago after Sebastian Vettel's domination in recent Grand Prix.  Vettel now has four straight victories so you can understand why the bookes have him as the odds on favourite as he looks unstoppable at the moment.  At odds of 1.73 though, there's too much risk for not enough reward so I'm going to limit myself to a small 10 point bet on Sebastian Vettel to continue his run and then go for an additional eachway bet on one of the chasing pack...

Indian Grand Prix: New Delhi Round-Up

Post-qualifying bets perform best once again...

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

My pre-qualifying tips were a washout this weekend, but my post-qualifying tips returned a slight overall profit…

To Win Outright: 
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 8.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel justified his extremely short of odds of 1.4 with a very comfortable victory.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish): 
20 points on Bruno Senna at 3.0 – WIN 60 points
Like he has done on several occasions previously this season, Bruno Senna once again just sneaked into the lower end of the points scoring positions.

The Indian Grand Prix: New Delhi Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Indian Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:

The Indian Grand Prix: New Delhi Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips... 

To Win Outright: 
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 8.0 
On current form you can understand why Sebastian Vettel is the 1.4 odds on favourite but at odds like that there’s not much money to be made.  In Lewis Hamilton's post-qualifying interviews, he seemed to think that McLaren have the pace to give the Red Bulls a fight in tomorrow's race so I'm going to go for a small bet on Lewis Hamilton for the win at odds of 8.0. 

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish): 
20 points on Bruno Senna at 3.0 
Both the Williams drivers of Pastor Maldonado and Bruno Senna seemed to think they could have got more out of qualifying.  Added to this, Senna tends to race better than he qualifies so although he’s been out of sorts in recent Grand Prix, starting from 13th tomorrow he has to be considered for a points finish.