Wednesday, 13 November 2013

United States Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

The championship was already wrapped up at India but that made little difference to Sebastian Vettel at Abu Dhabi as he strolled to his seventh straight victory, recording his second most comfortable winning margin of the season (second only to Singapore) in the process.

There's little reason to suggest things will be any different at Austin, and the bookies already have Vettel priced shorter than ever, with 1.33 currently being the best price available for another Vettel victory.

There's no denyng that Vettel is a great driver but his dominance makes for poor entertainment, so the sooner this season is over and we can move onto 2014 the better.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the United States Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.41 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Nico Rosberg  (£4.58 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£21.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£3.08 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£6.67 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.52 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£1.04 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£13.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£19.17 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£30.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Lotus  (£6.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£2.01 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement / 2 retirements (joint equal profit rating of £1.83)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.54 profit rating)

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.
** SkyBet have gone with 6 seconds as the cut-off for the Winning Margin betting market for the majority of the season.  However, in recent races they have used a higher time margin.

A wide variety of names show up in the various betting categories, with nobody really dominant in multiple betting markets.  One massive change in odds over the course of the season has been the Force India drivers for a Top Six finish.  When Paul di Resta achieved a top six finish at Bahrain (where he finished 4th) his odds at the start of the Grand Prix weekend were 3.75.  At the start of the Abu Dhabi weekend, however, Paul was available at the generous odds of 25.0, which perhaps reflects the fact that Force India were hit harder than most by the mid season changes to the tyres.  Di Resta's generous Top Six odds at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix means that thanks to his sixth place finish he replaces Nico Hulkenberg as the current most profitable Top Six bet.

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If you're looking for a relatively safe bet then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish:  Felipe Massa  (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (4 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (6 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (2 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 from 6 GP)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (2 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (2 from 6 GP)
Safety Car:  No  (4 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (3 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More  (4 from 6 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have recorded the biggest profit rating.  Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.

Just as a further reference point, the average winning margin over the course of the season has been 8.35 seconds, with the average winning margin in the last six Grand Prix a much higher 18.32 seconds, thanks to some recent dominant peformances from Sebastian Vettel.  The average qualifying winning margin over the season has been 0.22 seconds, with the average qualifying winning margin at the last six Grand Prix fairly similar at 0.26 seconds.

As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!

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