Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Few people would have been surprised when Sebastian Vettel wrapped up his fourth championship in India and you have to congratulate Vettel, but his dominance in recent races has made for a less than exciting championship battle.  I'm sure I'm not alone therefore in hoping that next year's regulation changes produce a much more closely fought driver's championship in 2014.

Despite the championship now being decided, I can't see Vettel being any less hungry for victories and the bookies seemingly agree as his odds are even shorter for Abu Dhabi.  As a result of Vettel's short odds, the most profitable bets have not always been the driver that you would expect.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.10 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£6.47 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£11.67 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£1.43 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£2.33 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.18 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£2.19 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£15.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£24.83 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Giedo van der Garde  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (£5.08 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.76 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£3.17 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.05 profit rating)

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.
** SkyBet have gone with 6 seconds as the cut-off for the Winning Margin betting market for the majority of the season.  However,  at the Japanese Grand Prix they went with 7 seconds and at India they went with 8 seconds.

Despite winning the last six races, Sebastian Vettel only tops the form guide in the Winning Driver betting market because obviously his odds in pretty much every betting category have become increasingly short with every successive win that he racks up.

If you're looking to minimise your risk, rather than gambling on a large return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish:  Felipe Massa  (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (4 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (6 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 from 6 GP)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (2 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (2 from 6 GP)
Safety Car:  No  (4 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (4 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More  (4 from 6 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have recorded the biggest profit rating.  Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.

Sebastian Vettel's dominance has meant there have been a lot of safe bets in recent races, but Felipe Massa for a points scoring finish has also been a dependable bet.  As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!

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