Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Brazilian Grand Prix: The Top Interlagos Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Sebastian Vettel made it eight consecutive victories at the United States Grand Prix, so it's no surprise to see him installed as the odds on favourite for Brazil with the bookies offering prices between 1.25 and 1.37 for Vettel to make it nine in a row.

However, Interlagos does have a tendency to produce unpredictable races with rain and safety car periods featuring more often than at some other circuits on the calendar, so it may be worth proceeding with caution (and maybe waiting for the weather forecast) before backing Vettel for victory number nine.

Here are the statistics for the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Brazilian Grand Prix ,with the most profitable bets listed first and the safest bets shown below:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.90 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£4.40 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£17.33 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Valtteri Bottas  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£4.58 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.06 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£0.43 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£10.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£13.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil**  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£6.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.65 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement (£5.75 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More***  (£0.36 profit rating)

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.
** Kimi Raikkonen has a higher profit rating but isn't racing at Brazil.
*** SkyBet have gone with 6 seconds as the cut-off for the Winning Margin betting market for the majority of the season.  However, in recent races they have used a higher time margin.

One formula 1 bet for Brazil which is worth highlighting is the 'Safety Car' betting market.  At the time of writing the following Safety Car odds are currently available:

'Safety Car - Yes' at 2.75 (PaddyPower)
'Safety Car - No' at 2.62 (Bet365).

If you wanted to play it safe then you could cover both options, but historically 'Safety Car - Yes' has been the better of the two options over the last ten years.

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For anyone looking for a relatively safe bet, here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Rosberg  (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (4 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (6 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 from 6 GP)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil  (1 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (2 from 6 GP)
Safety Car:  No  (3 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (3 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More  (4 from 6 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have recorded the biggest profit rating.  Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.

Just to throw a few more statistics at you, the average winning margin over the course of the season has been 7.89 seconds, with the average winning margin in the last six Grand Prix a much higher 18.45 seconds, due to Vettel's recent dominant peformances.  The average qualifying winning margin over the season has been 0.22 seconds, with the average qualifying winning margin at the last six Grand Prix fairly similar at 0.24 seconds.

As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!

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