The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	3.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	2.75	1
Sebastian Vettel	2.42	3
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first weighted in favour of recent races (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	6.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	4.00	1
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	2
Fernando Alonso	-2.88	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Following the German Grand Prix, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Post-Qualifying Tips

"It's a little bit of an understatement to say that we have mixed emotions after qualifying." ...Ross Brawn

Once again it was a battle between Mercedes and Red Bull for pole, but the higher temperatures seemed to suit Lotus and Ferrari who weren't too far off the pace and overall things looks well balanced for an exciting race.

Fernando Alonso commented, "It is about the pace tomorrow - not the tyres or the strategy," but if we get a few cars closely matched for pace then strategy could still be the deciding factor.  I personally think Ferrari's strategy of qualifying on the medium tyres could prove to be a shrewd move, but it remains to be seen just how things will play out.

Here are my post-qualifying tips for the German Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 (BetFred)
Ferrari took a bit of a gamble in qualifying by running medium tyres in Q3 and as a result they qualified 7th and 8th.  However, grid position isn't as crucial in modern formula 1 as it was in years gone by and you don't win any points on a Saturday, so it may ultimately prove to be a wise decision by Ferrari to focus on the race.  Alonso goes into this race with three podiums from the last four Grand Prix and on each of those occasions he started 5th, 6th and 9th and has proven to be a driver who consistently makes up places during the races.

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The German Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed some of the most profitable formula 1 bets of the 2013 season, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

As usual I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and also a selection of longer priced more risky bets.

Since I started splitting my tips I've had mixed fortunes, with decent returns at Spain and Monaco but poor results at Canada and Silverstone.  If you prefer to pay more attention to the form guide than my own predictions (which may be wise on current form!) then you can find the formula 1 betting form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Anyway, here are my predictions for the German Grand Prix... 

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.44 (SkyBet)
Given that Lewis has qualified on the front row for the last four Grand Prix now, you can understand why the bookies price him so short.  Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg is priced similarly short (at odds of 1.53) and with four front row finishes from the last five qualifying sessions he's also worth considering, but Lewis is the driver I'm going for.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on 0.15 Seconds Or More at 1.67 (SkyBet)
It's fairly competitive at the front of the field between Mercedes and Red Bull right now, but the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 has been 0.39 and only two qualifying sessions this season have seen a front row separated by less than 0.15 seconds.

German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As there's only one week between the British and German Grand Prix, I haven't had a chance to provide the usual detailed driver by driver analysis of each formula 1 betting market, so instead I'm just going to post an overall summary showing details of the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

Based on the statistics from the first eight Grand Prix of the season, as we head to the Nurburgring the best bets so far have been...

The Canadian Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"Of course I am happy but there are no points given in qualifying." ...Valtteri Bottas 

At the Monaco Grand Prix, it was my longer priced pre-qualifying tips which performed strongly with a return of 326 points from an initial 100 points.  However, my shorter priced post-qualifying tips still did reasonably okay making a slight profit of 26 points, so I'll see how I get on this time out.

Due to the possibility of a wet race, in general I've stayed away from heavy favourites when making these predictions, but if we get a dry race then that may prove to be an unwise strategy, so it's probably advisable to wait until closer to the Grand Prix and then assessing the weather before deciding on your bets.

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 4.5 (William Hill)
Earlier in the season Mercedes went through a pattern of falling away during the races, but they seemed to have made improvements in that respect at Monaco, and the cooler temperatures may also help them to stretch the life of their tyres.  If that proves to be the case then odds of 4.5 for a Nico Rosberg podium seem quite tempting given that he starts from 4th.

The Canadian Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Canadian Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from the last two races, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last time at Monaco thanks to bets such as 'Double Red Bull podium', 'Romain Grosjean not to be classified' and 'Nico Rosberg to be fastest qualifier' my longer priced tips performed extremely well making a return of 324 points from an initial 100 points and therefore an overall profit of 224 points.  My supposedly 'safer bets' however performed disappointingly, returning only 38 points from 100 points, so bear in mind that there's no such thing as a safe bet.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Canadian Grand Prix split into two categories...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Qualifier:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 3.5 (Ladbrokes)
Mercedes are the team in form when it comes to qualifying pace and Nico Rosberg currently has the upper hand over Lewis Hamilton with a run of three consecutive pole positions.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.83 (SkyBet)
Kimi Raikkonen had a result to forget at Monaco, but he's generally been a solid podium bet with four podiums from six Grand Prix in 2013.

Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during Monaco qualifying.

At the Spanish Grand Prix I compiled a graph of how the bet in play odds changed during the Grand Prix, so this time out I decided to vary things slightly and monitor the bet in play odds during Monaco qualifying.

At various intervals throughout each qualifying session I recorded the odds available from SkyBet for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the graph below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is my home.  I've grown up here all my life and it's really special." ...Nico Rosberg

In the first few laps after the pitstops, Vettel's race engineer reported to Vettel on the radio that his tyres from the first stint had been marginal.  Rosberg's engineer on the other hand revealed that the tyres from his first stint had held up well (still at 60%), and while you never know how much of radio transmissions are intended for the driver and how much are for the benefit of rival teams, from that point on it looked like it was Rosberg's race.

At the Spanish Grand Prix my post-qualifying tips did pretty well with my 'Playing It Safe' tips returning 263 points from 100 points, and although my return wasn't quite as impressive this week, things nevertheless still went reasonably well with a return of 126 points.

However, my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips were the bets that really performed strongly this time out with an excellent return of 324 points from 100 points, which I have to admit was a lot better than I was expecting!  I suppose it shows that if you're going to go for a risky longer priced bet then before qualifying is the time to do it (especially at Monaco), as once the grid is decided then the bookies are obviously going to shorten the odds of any driver with a realistic chance of doing well, and longer priced bets worth considering are going to be harder to find.

This is the detailed report on how my tips got on starting with my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips...