Canadian Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of pre and post qualifying tips and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For recent races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can see the detailed results in my previous posts, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first six Grand Prix of the season, as we head to Canada the best bets so far have been...

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver - Kimi Raikkonen (50% profit / £9 return from £6 staked)
Podium Finish - Romain Grosjean (100% profit / £12 return from £6 staked)
Top Six Finish - Lewis Hamilton (25.3% profit / £7.52 return from £6 staked)
Top Ten Finish - Paul Di Resta (41% profit / £8.46 return from £6 staked)

N.B. The above figures are based on the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of the season based on the odds when the market first opened, i.e. before practise and qualifying.

Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during Monaco qualifying.

At the Spanish Grand Prix I compiled a graph of how the bet in play odds changed during the Grand Prix, so this time out I decided to vary things slightly and monitor the bet in play odds during Monaco qualifying.

At various intervals throughout each qualifying session I recorded the odds available from SkyBet for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the graph below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is my home.  I've grown up here all my life and it's really special." ...Nico Rosberg

In the first few laps after the pitstops, Vettel's race engineer reported to Vettel on the radio that his tyres from the first stint had been marginal.  Rosberg's engineer on the other hand revealed that the tyres from his first stint had held up well (still at 60%), and while you never know how much of radio transmissions are intended for the driver and how much are for the benefit of rival teams, from that point on it looked like it was Rosberg's race.

At the Spanish Grand Prix my post-qualifying tips did pretty well with my 'Playing It Safe' tips returning 263 points from 100 points, and although my return wasn't quite as impressive this week, things nevertheless still went reasonably well with a return of 126 points.

However, my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips were the bets that really performed strongly this time out with an excellent return of 324 points from 100 points, which I have to admit was a lot better than I was expecting!  I suppose it shows that if you're going to go for a risky longer priced bet then before qualifying is the time to do it (especially at Monaco), as once the grid is decided then the bookies are obviously going to shorten the odds of any driver with a realistic chance of doing well, and longer priced bets worth considering are going to be harder to find.

This is the detailed report on how my tips got on starting with my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips...

The Monaco Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"We know that race pace has been our weakness.  We'll have to wait until tomorrow to find out if this will be enough.” ...Nico Rosberg

After the end of P3, I was feeling reasonably satisfied with how my tips were looking.  However, the rain at the start of Q1 served as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of formula 1 and it looked initially like qualifying might potentially throw up a few surprises.

In the end though, it was more or less business as usual with Nico Rosberg claiming his third consecutive pole and team-mate Lewis Hamilton lining up behind him to make it another front row lock out for Mercedes.

Last time out at Spain it was my post qualifying tips which recorded the best performance so I'm under pressure to repeat that form...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Winning Driver:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 5.0 (Bet365 enhanced odds)
Each of the last four Monaco Grand Prix have been won by the driver who started on pole, so you can understand why the bookies have Nico Rosberg as the favourite.  However, Fernando Alonso showed at the Spanish Grand Prix that modern formula 1 doesn't necessarily follow the trend of the history books.  Monaco is a different matter again of course, but Sebastian Vettel was only a tenth of a second off Nico Rosberg's pole lap time so I'm therefore sticking with my pre-weekend prediction of Sebastian Vettel for the victory.

The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Monaco Grand Prix

Yesterday I posted the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  As usual, as we approach Sunday's race I'm also going to make a set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Monaco Grand Prix and then see how I get on compared to the form guide.

Following the pattern I started for Spain, I'm going to start with a series of shorter priced bets and then follow this with a selection of higher priced risky bets.  Bear in mind also that last time out my post-qualifying tips resoundly outperformed my pre-qualifying tips, so it may be wiser to wait until the form of the teams becomes more apparent later in the weekend before placing any bets.

Also bear in mind that I'm making these tips before first practise, and practise at Monaco takes place a day earlier than usual on the Thursday, so the odds may well change once the bookies get a chance to analyse the practise times.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix split into two categories...

Monaco Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For the last two races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can check out more detailed results in some of my posts over the last week, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first five Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...