Thursday, 16 May 2013

Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Spanish Grand Prix.

Usually when I have a bet on formula 1, I generally prefer to wait until after qualifying as by this stage of the weekend the form of the various teams is starting to emerge and it's therefore possible to make a more educated guess as to how things will turn out.  It's quite rare therefore that I'll have a bet before qualifying and even rarer again that I'll ever bother with 'bet in play'.

However, just for a change, during the Spanish Grand Prix I monitored the 'bet in play' odds every few laps to see how the bookies resasessed their opinion of the potential winner as the Grand Prix progressed.  This is a graph of the odds:

As you can see Sebastian Vettel remained the favourite until lap ten, however, between laps fifteen to twenty five his odds drifted out quite sharply.  During the same period of the race Kimi Raikkonen came down in price quite rapidly, but this was only a brief trend and by the midway point the odds were already starting to suggest that it was Alonso's race.

Odds were also available for several other drivers, most notably Rosberg, Hamilton, Grosjean, Webber, Massa and Perez, but their odds were never really short enough to suggest they were serious contenders and in fact very early on in the race their odds all drifted out to massive prices.  Even Felipe Massa, who was generally the shortest priced of the rest of the field, never dropped below odds of 29.0.

I've therefore limited the graph to the top three drivers and also only included their odds while they remained priced at 10/1 or less.

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Other recent posts:
Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Round-Up
The Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Post Qualifying Tips

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