Brazilian Grand Prix: The Top Interlagos Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Sebastian Vettel made it eight consecutive victories at the United States Grand Prix, so it's no surprise to see him installed as the odds on favourite for Brazil with the bookies offering prices between 1.25 and 1.37 for Vettel to make it nine in a row.

However, Interlagos does have a tendency to produce unpredictable races with rain and safety car periods featuring more often than at some other circuits on the calendar, so it may be worth proceeding with caution (and maybe waiting for the weather forecast) before backing Vettel for victory number nine.

Here are the statistics for the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Brazilian Grand Prix ,with the most profitable bets listed first and the safest bets shown below:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.90 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£4.40 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Paul di Resta  (£17.33 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Valtteri Bottas  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£4.58 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.06 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£0.43 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Fernando Alonso  (£10.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£13.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil**  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£6.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.65 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  1 retirement (£5.75 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More***  (£0.36 profit rating)

Japanese Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£19.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.91 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.48 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.92 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.24 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.63 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£19.83 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  Yes  (-£0.12 profit rating - Both 'yes' and 'no' have recorded a slight loss)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.93 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.50 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	2.50	1
Sebastian Vettel	1.01	5
Fernando Alonso	0.49	4
Mark Webber	0.21	2
Lewis Hamilton	-0.23	3

Kimi Raikkonen	-0.42	2
Nico Rosberg	-2.33	1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.
Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	3.61	4
Lewis Hamilton	1.50	1
Nico Rosberg	0.17	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.  Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent results.

The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix throughout 2013 for a top six finish...

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

A few days ago I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver market and today I'm going to look at the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of the form in recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the profit you'd have made from a £1 bet if you'd backed the same driver for a podium at each Grand Prix of 2013...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Podium Finish:

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	5.00	1
Kimi Raikkonen	1.42	4
Lewis Hamilton	1.20	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.61	5
Mark Webber	-0.25	2

Fernando Alonso	-0.30	4
Felipe Massa	-2.00	1

Nico Rosberg

-4.80

1

Rest Of The Field

-7.00

0

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

Canadian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Canadian Grand Prix.

As I mentioned in my previous post, the bet in play odds during the Canadian Grand Prix weren't particularly surprising given that Sebastian Vettel always looked in control, but here's the bet in play chart anyway just in case anyone's interested:

Canada Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during Canada qualifying.

At Canada, at various intervals throughout each qualifying session I recorded the odds available from SkyBet for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before I make my tips for the Canadian Grand Prix, I'm going to sneak in one more post analysing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market and following the trend with my previous two posts, once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts.  The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of 2013 for a top six finish...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Top Six Finish:

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Lewis Hamilton	1.52	5
Sebastian Vettel	1.51	6
Felipe Massa	1.26	4
Mark Webber	0.49	4
Nico Rosberg	-0.18	4
Romain Grosjean	-0.37	1
Kimi Raikkonen	-0.70	4
Sergio Perez	-1.00	1
Jenson Button	-1.42	2
Fernando Alonso	-2.16	3
Paul Di Resta	-2.25	1
Adrian Sutil	-3.25	1

Rest Of The Field

-6.00

0

The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Monaco Grand Prix

Yesterday I posted the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  As usual, as we approach Sunday's race I'm also going to make a set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Monaco Grand Prix and then see how I get on compared to the form guide.

Following the pattern I started for Spain, I'm going to start with a series of shorter priced bets and then follow this with a selection of higher priced risky bets.  Bear in mind also that last time out my post-qualifying tips resoundly outperformed my pre-qualifying tips, so it may be wiser to wait until the form of the teams becomes more apparent later in the weekend before placing any bets.

Also bear in mind that I'm making these tips before first practise, and practise at Monaco takes place a day earlier than usual on the Thursday, so the odds may well change once the bookies get a chance to analyse the practise times.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix split into two categories...

Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Spanish Grand Prix.

Usually when I have a bet on formula 1, I generally prefer to wait until after qualifying as by this stage of the weekend the form of the various teams is starting to emerge and it's therefore possible to make a more educated guess as to how things will turn out.  It's quite rare therefore that I'll have a bet before qualifying and even rarer again that I'll ever bother with 'bet in play'.

However, just for a change, during the Spanish Grand Prix I monitored the 'bet in play' odds every few laps to see how the bookies resasessed their opinion of the potential winner as the Grand Prix progressed.  This is a graph of the odds:

The Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Spanish Grand Prix

Yesterday I rounded up the most profitable bets and also the safest bets so far this season in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Formula 1 wouldn't be as fun if you reduced it to nothing more than a list of statistics though, so as usual I'm going to be making a set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Spanish Grand Prix and then see how I get on compared to the form guide.

To do things slightly different this time out, first of all I'm going to highlight my favourite 'safe' bets and then follow this with a selection of 'risky' bets.  Then as the season progresses I should be able to analyse whether it's generally better to go for short priced favourites or longer priced outsiders.  Obviously there's no such thing as a totally safe bet and all bets have an element of risk attached, so more appropriate names might perhaps be 'Shorter Priced Bets' and 'Longer Priced Bets'.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Spanish Grand Prix split into two categories...

Spanish Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I usually make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  However, as we had a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I also decided to analyse the performance of the drivers so far this season to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular betting markets.

You can find the full results in my previous posts over the last week but to summarise, going on the statistics from the first four Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As the formula 1 calendar has a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I thought I would make use of the time to analyse the season so far from a betting point of view and compare which drivers have been the most profitable bets in each of the most popular betting markets.

I've therefore looked at the pre-qualifying odds offered by SkyBet at each Grand Prix of the season and then compiled a few charts showing which drivers would have returned the biggest profit in various markets if you'd bet on them at every race.

As we've only had three different race winners so far, the Winning Driver chart is fairly straight forward:

Driver Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season

An analysis of the most popular formula 1 betting market for 2013.

A couple of months ago I took a look at the odds for the 2013 formula 1 drivers' championship, so with the new season now only a week away I thought it would be interesting to look at how those odds have changed since the bookies first started taking bets on the forthcoming season.

In my original post I grouped the drivers into three categories; the favourites, the outside contenders and the longshots, so once again I'll look at the odds for these three groups.

The favourites:

	Early Odds	Current Odds
Sebastian Vettel	2.25	2.5
Fernando Alonso	3.25	4.0

It's no surprise that the bookies make Vettel and Alonso the favourites, but it's interesting that the odds for both Vettel and Alonso have drifted out slightly since the market opened.  Given the fact that the relative performances of the teams at the start of the season always contains an element of the unknown, my own personal view is that anyone wanting to place a bet on Vettel or Alonso for the championship would maybe be wise to wait until after the Australia Grand Prix, as whatever the result in Melbourne their odds are unlikely to shorten dramatically.

Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos Tips Round-Up

An unbelievably exciting finish to an absolutely classic season.

Before I move onto my tips I just want to say how much I've absolutely loved the 2012 formula 1 season.  I first got into formula 1 during the days of Michael Schumacher, Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve, Mika Hakkinen, etc, and although those first few few seasons as a formula 1 fan got me completely hooked, I think it's fair to say that in terms of excitement and entertainment the bar just keeps getting higher.

Credit to the drivers for some of the amazing races we've witnessed this season and credit also to all the teams for the current atmosphere of co-operation which has allowed rivalries to be put aside for the greater good of the sport.  Today's race has to go down as another brilliantly dramatic finale to a formula 1 season and I'm already looking forward to 2013.

Anyway, this is how my post-qualifying tips performed...

Race Winner:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.38 - LOSS
Things were looking good for Lewis Hamilton until lap 54 when Nico Hulkenberg slid into him at the first corner and put him out of the race.

Race Winner (Eachway):
10 points on Felipe Massa at 34.0 (5 points on the win - LOSS, 5 points eachway - WIN 33 points)*
Felipe Massa rounded off his strong finish to the season with a podium at his home Grand Prix, ensuring a return of 33 points from this bet.

* On an eachway bet, SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first three places.

United States Grand Prix: Austin Tips Round-Up

An exciting Grand Prix, but an average performance from my formula 1 tips...

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Both sets of tips performed quite averagely this week, although once again my post-qualifying tips just managed to outperform my pre-qualifying tips, so the way things are developing it’s looking like waiting until after qualifying before placing your formula 1 bets is definitely a wise strategy.

This is how my post-qualifying tips performed…

To Finish On The Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.5 – WIN 35 points
Fernando is becoming the master at qualifying on the 3rd or 4th row of the grid and then making up a few places during the race to finish up on the podium and he did it once again at the United States Grand Prix.  He was arguably helped by Ferrari’s clever and sneaky tactic of forcing a five grid sot penalty for Felipe Massa by breaking the seal on his gear box, but I think there’s a strong case that even without this pre-race tactic Fernando would very probably have still made the podium.  Anyway, if he qualifies in a similar position at Brazil then he’s worth considering once again for another podium finish.

Top Six Finish:
15 points on Kimi Raikkonen at odds of 1.33 – WIN 20 points
Kimi has been the model of consistency in the Top Six market, and has now made it 12 top six finishes from the last 13 Grand Prix.

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips... 

Lap 1 Leader:
10 points on Mark Webber at 6.0
Lewis Hamilton's starts haven't been that great in recent races, so although Mark Webber admittedly hasn't always been an amazing starter himself, odds of 6.0 look a little generous and therefore I'm going to go for a small punt on Mark Webber in the Lap 1 Leader market.

To Finish On The Podium:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.63
Kimi was talking up his chances of a strong race in his post-qualifying interviews and seems confident that he has the pace to fight the Red Bulls (meaning Mark Webber now that Vettel is starting from the pit-lane).  There's no escaping the fact that the Lotus' lack of straight-line speed has meant that Kimi hasn't been a great over-taker this season, but nevertheless starting from fourth a podium finish looks within Kimi's capabilities.

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best. 

GP Winning Margin:
20 points on 6 Seconds Or More at 1.73
All of Sebastian Vettel's four recent victories have been won by more than 6 seconds.  Maybe part of the reason for this is that Vettel, being the competitive racer he is, likes to put in fast laps in the closing stages of a Grand Prix in an attempt to get the fastest lap of the race.  Whatever the reason, we haven't seen a really close finish for a while now so a winning margin of more than 6 seconds would seem to be the bet to go for.

To Win Outright:
10 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.73
The unpredictability of the start of the season now feels a long time ago after Sebastian Vettel's domination in recent Grand Prix.  Vettel now has four straight victories so you can understand why the bookes have him as the odds on favourite as he looks unstoppable at the moment.  At odds of 1.73 though, there's too much risk for not enough reward so I'm going to limit myself to a small 10 point bet on Sebastian Vettel to continue his run and then go for an additional eachway bet on one of the chasing pack...