The Korean Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"I definitely feel like I have a better foundation this weekend." ...Lewis Hamilton

In recent weeks we've seen some uneventful races, but the signs so far this weekend are more promising.  Less than two tenths of a second separated the fastest four drivers in P2, so hopefully we may be in for a more exciting Korean Grand Prix.

There's also the weather to consider and although a possible typhoon was predicted earlier in the week, recent forecasts suggest that's now looking unlikely.   The latest weather forecast is nevertheless predicting a 60% chance of rain for Sunday's race, so that's another factor which could potentially lead to more excitement.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Coral, BetFred)
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have had a duopoly on pole position over the last seven Grand Prix and there looks to be a reasonable chance of that trend continuing, with a Hamilton Vettel one two in both practise sessions so far.  Of the two, Lewis Hamilton is available at the better odds and Mercedes have a knack for improving between P1 and qualifying, so Lewis is my choice for pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 (SkyBet)
All three of the previous three Korean Grand Prix have seen the front two drivers on the grid separated by less than a quarter of a second with the average gap being 0.12 seconds.  The pace of the front-runners has once again been close so far this weekend with less than two tenths of a second separating the four fastest drivers in P2.

Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you want to beat the bookies at formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, so over the last few days I've analysed the statistics to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.22 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£14.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.23 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.62 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.72 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.70 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Daniel Ricciardo  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£9.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.23 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.72 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (£0.20 profit rating)

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a few miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts are based on the last six races with the statistics weighted in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	1.83	2
Lewis Hamilton	1.50	1
Mark Webber	1.33	2
Fernando Alonso	-0.17	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As the Korean Grand Prix approaches I've analysed the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I look at Top Ten Finish betting and once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Korea, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I move on to the Top Six betting market.

As usual I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg	14.00	1
Felipe Massa	0.97	3
Fernando Alonso	0.80	6
Sebastian Vettel	0.45	5
Nico Rosberg	0.40	4
Jenson Button	-0.10	2
Lewis Hamilton	-0.15	5
Mark Webber	-0.53	4
Kimi Raikkonen	-0.76	4
Romain Grosjean	-1.63	2
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

As usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	1.22	5
Kimi Raikkonen	1.17	3
Fernando Alonso	1.06	4
Romain Grosjean	0.50	1
Mark Webber	-0.68	2
Lewis Hamilton	-1.25	2
Nico Rosberg	-2.92	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the build-up to the Korean Grand Prix I've analysed the latest formula 1 results to produce various form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	3.97	4
Lewis Hamilton	0.25	1
Nico Rosberg	-1.67	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

The Korean Grand Prix: Yeongam Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Korean Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.  You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:

The Korean Grand Prix: Yeongam Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips...

To Win Outright:

25 points on Mark Webber at 4.33

Mark Webber has had a poor spell by his standards recently but he tends to race strongly when he starts from the front row of the grid.  Of course, there’s the potential matter of team orders to consider but Mark is still in with a mathematical shout at the championship and given that he hasn’t taken too kindly to team orders in the past, I’m therefore going to risk 25 points on Webber to win outright at 4.33.

To Finish On The Podium:

20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 5.5

You would have to say that with Webber, Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso starting on the front two rows of the grid, you would probably expect the podium to most likely come from those four drivers.  However, with the driver’s championship balanced the way it is we may see some very competitive opening laps so if there are any incidents then Kimi Raikkonen is well placed starting from fifth to take advantage if any of the front four encounter problems.  He wasn’t too far away from the front row pace during qualifying and therefore given the short odds available on the front four, I’m going to go for a small bet on Kimi for a podium at odds of 5.5.

The Korean Grand Prix: Yeongam Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Korean Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

To Win Outright: 
25 points on Lewis Hamilton at 4.5
Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular looked very strong at Suzuka, but given the unpredictable nature of the season so far, Vettel's odds of 2.62 look a little short.  Lewis Hamilton had a bad day at the office in Suzuka but a lot of that was down to Lewis going in the wrong direction with car set-up, so he'll be aiming to bounce back to form in Korea.  Admittedly, the reliability of the McLaren hasn't been too great in recent races but before Japan, Lewis had won the last two races that he managed finished, so at odds of 4.5 for the victory he looks a slightly more attractive bet than Sebastian Vettel. 

To Finish On The Podium:
15 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5
Excluding retirements (neither of which were Fernando's or Ferrari's fault), Alonso has finished on the podium at all but two of the last eleven Grand Prix.  His consistency therefore makes him an attractive bet for the podium at odds of 2.5.