Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you want to beat the bookies at formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, so over the last few days I've analysed the statistics to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.22 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£14.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.23 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.62 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.72 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.70 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Daniel Ricciardo  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£9.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.23 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.72 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (£0.20 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Sebastian Vettel dominates the form guide and has been the most profitable bet in five betting categories, with Nico Hulkenberg the other driver of note thanks to his performances in recent races having earned him the biggest Top Six and Top Ten profit.

If you're looking for a relatively safe bet, rather than gambling on a large return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (4 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish:  Fernando Alonso  (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish:  Fernando Alonso  (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lewis Hamilton  (4 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (4 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (2 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (4 from 6 GP)
First To Retire:  Daniel Ricciardo  (1 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (2 from 6 GP)
Safety Car:  No  (3 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (5 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (3 from 6 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have returned the biggest profit.  Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.

Once again Sebastian Vettel's name crops up in five categories, but of course this will be reflected in his odds.  As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!


If you'd like to check out more detailed form guide charts then you can find them at the following links:
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

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