Thursday, 13 September 2012

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Round-Up

My pre-qualifying and post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix performed as follows:

Post-Qualifying Tips:
To finish in the points (top ten finish):
30 points on Bruno Senna at 3.5 – WIN – 105 point return
Bruno Senna is always a solid bet for the top ten and at Monza he took his record for the season to 7 top ten finishes from 13 Grand Prix.

To Win Outright (Eachway):
30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75 – LOSS
This bet looked to be heading for an eachway return (which would have meant a loss of -1.3 points) until Jenson’s car failure towards the end.  If it had been Lewis who hit car trouble though, then things could have been different.

To Win Outright:
5 points on Paul Di Resta at 67.0 - LOSS
On reflection this was an overly optimistic bet, especially given that Paul had a five grid place penalty, but given the unpredictable season we’re having I figured there was no harm in having a small 5 point bet.

To finish on the podium:
25 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 4.0 – LOSS
Despite his strong run of form previous to Monza which included four podiums out of the previous five races, Kimi and Lotus weren't quite as strong at Monza and so sadly another loss.

Fastest Lap:
10 points on Paul Di Resta at 26.0 - LOSS
Fastest lap is always a bit of a gamble and it was Nico Rosberg who won the honour at Monza.

Overall return of 105 points from 100 points making a 5 point profit.

Pre-Qualifying Tips:
To win outright (eachway):
30 points on Mark Webber at 21.0 - LOSS
The Red Bulls were never really on the pace all weekend so even before Mark’s retirement this bet was looking doomed.

To finish on the podium:
30 points on Kimi Raikonnen at 2.75 - LOSS
See post-qualifying tips above.

To finish in the points (top ten finish):
30 points on Nico Hulkenberg at 2.38 - LOSS
Starting from the back of the grid the odds were against Nico and he was eventually classified as a non-finisher.

Fastest Lap:
10 points on Paul Di Resta at 41.0 - LOSS
See post-qualifying tips above.

Before qualifying I said that my usual strategy was to wait until after qualifying when you know the starting grid, and the varying performance of my pre and post qualifying tips would support the wisdom of this strategy.

Going forward, the Merecdes cars once again seemed much stronger at the end of the race compared to their early race pace, so that’s something to bear in mind when considering the fastest lap market for future Grand Prix (fastest lap is always set during the closing laps when the cars are light on fuel).

Missed betting opportunities include Sergio Perez for the podium.  While Sauber don’t have the consistency to be regarded as a front running team, they have occasionally shown strong form, particularly from Perez.  I wouldn’t consider Perez for a win just yet, but he has once again proved he’s worth considering for the podium market, especially given that the fluctuation in his race results mean you can generally get a decent price for him.

Another point worth noting was the dominant performance of the McLarens.  Lewis has now won at both Monza and the Hungoraring, two very different types of tracks, and when you add in Jenson’s dominant win at Spa, McLaren undoubtedly look the team to beat in Singapore.

I’ll post another set of tips before Singapore and once again I’ll be making my predictions both before and after qualifying to see how the two sets of tips compare, so check back before Singapore to see who I go for.

. . . . . . . .

As previously mentioned, betting can be a risky business so please be aware that these tips are just a bit of fun to see how my predictions do and also to analyse whether my theory of waiting until after qualifying is the right way to go.  A small bet can add to the excitement of the race but given the unpredictable nature of formula 1 a bit bet is just stupid.  Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

The safest way to bet is with points rather than cash, so for anyone who’d like the chance to bet with points for the chance to win cash prizes I recommend checking out a cool website called  They award prizes every month in several sporting categories for the best performers of the month and it’s completely free to play, so if you want to discover more than check out the following link:

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