The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Tips

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing."  However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather generous.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	4.50	1
Lewis Hamilton	0.80	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	5
Kimi Raikkonen	0.50	2
Fernando Alonso	-0.24	3

Nico Rosberg	-1.38	2
Mark Webber	-1.71	2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	3.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	2.75	1
Sebastian Vettel	2.42	3
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Round-Up

My pre-qualifying and post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix performed as follows:

Post-Qualifying Tips:

To finish in the points (top ten finish):

30 points on Bruno Senna at 3.5 – WIN – 105 point return

Bruno Senna is always a solid bet for the top ten and at Monza he took his record for the season to 7 top ten finishes from 13 Grand Prix.

To Win Outright (Eachway):

30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75 – LOSS

This bet looked to be heading for an eachway return (which would have meant a loss of -1.3 points) until Jenson’s car failure towards the end.  If it had been Lewis who hit car trouble though, then things could have been different.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Predictions

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1.  It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else.  If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I made a few tips earlier today before qualifying and now I'm going to make another set of tips to see which set of tips do best.  I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright:
5 points on Paul Di Resta at 67.0.
Paul Di Resta has looked quietly impressive so far this weekend and another first corner incident like that at Spa could potentially take out some of his front running competitors and give him a surprise chance at victory.  Given that Monza has a history of first corner incidents I'm therefore going to go for a speculative 5 point bet on Paul Di Resta for the victory.

To Win Outright (Eachway):
30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75.
Lewis Hamilton has to be favourite for the win but at odds of 1.9 he doesn't hold much appeal.  Jenson on the other hand has been heading back to form in recent events and therefore starting from second on the grid his odds of 3.75 are more tempting.  I'm therefore going to go for a cagey eachway bet on Jenson Button.  My 30 point bet will return 55 points if he wins, and if he comes second I suffer a loss of -1.3 points which I can live with.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Predictions

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1.  It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else.  If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I'm going to make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.  I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright (Eachway):
30 points on Mark Webber at 21.0.
For whatever reason, there always seem to be more generous odds available on Mark Webber than the other top drivers, despite the fact that his form compared to team-mate Vettel is a lot closer than the bookies seem to realise.  The Red Bulls haven't been on the top of their game during practise, however, but at odds of 21.0, Mark Webber looks a decent eachway bet for the win.