Saturday, 8 September 2012

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Predictions

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1.  It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else.  If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I made a few tips earlier today before qualifying and now I'm going to make another set of tips to see which set of tips do best.  I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from and see how I do.

To Win Outright:
5 points on Paul Di Resta at 67.0.
Paul Di Resta has looked quietly impressive so far this weekend and another first corner incident like that at Spa could potentially take out some of his front running competitors and give him a surprise chance at victory.  Given that Monza has a history of first corner incidents I'm therefore going to go for a speculative 5 point bet on Paul Di Resta for the victory.

To Win Outright (Eachway):
30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75.
Lewis Hamilton has to be favourite for the win but at odds of 1.9 he doesn't hold much appeal.  Jenson on the other hand has been heading back to form in recent events and therefore starting from second on the grid his odds of 3.75 are more tempting.  I'm therefore going to go for a cagey eachway bet on Jenson Button.  My 30 point bet will return 55 points if he wins, and if he comes second I suffer a loss of -1.3 points which I can live with.

To Finish On The Podium:
25 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 4.0.
Although Kimi only qualified 8th, he has finished on the podium at four of the last five races so his recent consistency make him a decent bet for the podium at odds of 4.0.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
30 points on Bruno Senna at 3.5.
Bruno Senna more often than not seems to race better than he qualifies and has in fact finished in the points on 6 out of 12 occasions so far this season.  This has been achieved from an average grip position of 14th (or 14.08th to be precise), so from a starting position of 14th tomorrow he looks good value for a points finish at odds of 3.5.

Fastest Lap:
10 points on Paul Di Resta at 26.0.
Before qualifying Paul Di Resta was available at one stage at odds of 81.0 for fastest lap.  Following his strong qualifying performance those odds are now down to 26.0 but in a market which has a degree of randomness to it and is therefore alway a bit of a gamble (previous fastest lap winners this year have included the likes of Kamui Kobayashi, Sergio Perez and Bruno Senna) Paul's odds are still tempting enough to have small speculative punt and therefore I'm going for a 10 point bet on Paul Di Resta at 26.0.

As already mentioned, I also placed a few hypothetical points bets before qualfying so I'll see how both sets of bets compare in tomorrow's race.

Disclaimer:  A small bet can make a formula 1 race more exciting but the unpredicatability of the sport mean that having a large bet is just stupid.  Gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with points rather than pounds, so if you'd like the chance to gamble risk-free with points for the chance to win cash prizes then a website worth visiting is  It's free to sign up and they offer cash prizes for the most successful punters in various sporting categories.  If you'd like to check it out then click on the link below:
Bet with points for the chance to win cash prizes at

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