Italian Grand Prix: Round Up

"I had a big flat spot and I wasn't sure if the tyre would survive." ...Sebastian Vettel

I have to admit that although I have had my favourite drivers over the years, in general I'm a fan of exciting championship battles more than I'm a fan of any specific driver.  However, after Sebastian Vettel claimed his 6th victory of the season, the chances of a dramatic finish to the season are looking extremely slim.

There are still seven races to go, but Sebastian Vettel now has a 53 point lead over nearest rival Fernando Alonso, and the bookies have Vettel priced at between 1.02 to 1.04 to retain the formula 1 driver's championship.

Here's a quick round-up of how my Monza bets got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel were both on the podium, ensuring Red Bull's 10th double points scoring finish of the season.

Top Six Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.7 (William Hill) - LOSS
Lewis had a slow puncture early in the race, as well as radio problems, and eventually came home in 9th position.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Tips

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing."  However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather generous.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Tips

"The car feels really good so his [Vettel's] car must feel incredible! " ...Lewis Hamilton

Last time out at Spa I correctly predicted Lewis Hamilton for pole position, but other than that my pre-qualifying tips had a disappointing weekend.  It may therefore be wiser to pay closer attention to the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets this weekend.

It's a crucial weekend for the championship, and the likes of Lewis, Fernando and Kimi really have to start beating Sebastion sooner rather than later if we're going to have a close championship battle, but so far this weekend Red Bull are looking very strong as usual.

It's worth mentioning that the weather forecast is predicting 'scattered thunderstorms over the weekend', so it may be wiser to wait until Sunday morning (when a more accurate idea of the possibility of a wet race should be available) before placing your formula 1 bets this weekend.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.0 (Boylesports)
Lewis has had a mixed weekend so far, with the fastest time in P1 and a less impressive P2, but he arrives at Monza on the back of two podium finishes and he won here last year.  Monza is generally also kinder to tyres than some tracks, which should suit Mercedes, so the odds of 2.0 offered by Boylesports for a Lewis Hamilton podium seem reasonable.

Italian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Mark Webber	10.33	3
Fernando Alonso	3.17	1
Sebastian Vettel	0.67	2
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	4.50	1
Lewis Hamilton	0.80	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	5
Kimi Raikkonen	0.50	2
Fernando Alonso	-0.24	3

Nico Rosberg	-1.38	2
Mark Webber	-1.71	2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	3.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	2.75	1
Sebastian Vettel	2.42	3
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Round-Up

My pre-qualifying and post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix performed as follows:

Post-Qualifying Tips:

To finish in the points (top ten finish):

30 points on Bruno Senna at 3.5 – WIN – 105 point return

Bruno Senna is always a solid bet for the top ten and at Monza he took his record for the season to 7 top ten finishes from 13 Grand Prix.

To Win Outright (Eachway):

30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75 – LOSS

This bet looked to be heading for an eachway return (which would have meant a loss of -1.3 points) until Jenson’s car failure towards the end.  If it had been Lewis who hit car trouble though, then things could have been different.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Predictions

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1.  It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else.  If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I made a few tips earlier today before qualifying and now I'm going to make another set of tips to see which set of tips do best.  I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright:
5 points on Paul Di Resta at 67.0.
Paul Di Resta has looked quietly impressive so far this weekend and another first corner incident like that at Spa could potentially take out some of his front running competitors and give him a surprise chance at victory.  Given that Monza has a history of first corner incidents I'm therefore going to go for a speculative 5 point bet on Paul Di Resta for the victory.

To Win Outright (Eachway):
30 points on Jenson Button at 3.75.
Lewis Hamilton has to be favourite for the win but at odds of 1.9 he doesn't hold much appeal.  Jenson on the other hand has been heading back to form in recent events and therefore starting from second on the grid his odds of 3.75 are more tempting.  I'm therefore going to go for a cagey eachway bet on Jenson Button.  My 30 point bet will return 55 points if he wins, and if he comes second I suffer a loss of -1.3 points which I can live with.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Predictions

Formula 1 Tips For The Italian Grand Prix

Please note, this blog is just a bit of fun to test myself and see how well I really know formula 1.  It's simply for my own benefit to keep a record of how well my predictions do, and not intended as advice to be taken by anyone else.  If other formula 1 fans want to view my tips out of curiosity then that's fine, but I'm in no way proclaiming myself to be an amazing formula 1 expert.

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not I'm going to make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.  I'll give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.

To Win Outright (Eachway):
30 points on Mark Webber at 21.0.
For whatever reason, there always seem to be more generous odds available on Mark Webber than the other top drivers, despite the fact that his form compared to team-mate Vettel is a lot closer than the bookies seem to realise.  The Red Bulls haven't been on the top of their game during practise, however, but at odds of 21.0, Mark Webber looks a decent eachway bet for the win.