Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Round-Up

Team orders meant my tips came undone this week...

I had two near misses on potential big wins this week as my tips for the Malaysian Grand Prix were undone by team orders; on one occasion by team orders being obeyed and on another occasion by them being disobeyed.

Formula 1 wouldn't be the same without a bit of controversy though, so despite my two near misses (otherwise known as failures), I've totally enjoyed the excitement and entertainment provided so far this season.

Despite making an overall loss, a few tips came up, so this is the summary of how things went...

Pre-Qualifying Tips

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0 - LOSS
As Murray Walker used to say 'if is formula 1 spelt backwards' and if Sebastian Vettel had obeyed team orders this would have been a big winning bet.  However, as Ron Dennis used to say, 'second place is first of the losers' and unfortunately second place for Mark meant this was a losing bet.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 2.25 - WIN 45 points
Mercedes had a strong weekend and in the end Nico was very vocal in expressing his disappointment at not being allowed to pass his team-mate Lewis (who was short fuelled and therefore cruising to the end) for a podium finish.  Nico still brought his car home in 4th though, to ensure this was a winning bet.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 1.67 - LOSS
A nudge with Sebastian Vettel on the opening sequence of corners caused damage to Fernando's front wing leading to a front wing failure at the start of the next lap which brought an early end to Alonso's race.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Paul Di Resta at 1.62 - LOSS
Force India looked to have decent pace in Malaysia but wheel nut issues (probably caused by the heat) meant an early end to the Grand Prix for both their drivers.

Safety Car:
10 points on Safety Car - Yes at 1.5 - LOSS
I'd banked on a wet race when making this tip but it turned out that all but the first few laps were raced in dry conditions.  The race still proved to be eventful for many reasons but the safety car was never needed.

Qualifying Match Bet:
10 points on Felipe Massa To Outqualify Fernando Alonso at 2.75 - WIN 28 points
Massa has now outqualified Alonso at the last four Grand Prix so if the bookies price Massa as generously at the Chinese Grand Prix then this is a bet worth keeping an eye on.

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Race Winner:
10 points on Felipe Massa at 9.0 - LOSS
Despite a strong qualifying, Felipe lost several places on the opening lap and never really recovered any ground until the closing laps.

Podium:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 5.5 - LOSS
Unfortunately, rather than let Rosberg have a go at chasing down the Red Bulls, Ross Brawn instead ordered Nico to hold position behind Hamilton and on this occasion team orders were obeyed, denying Nico Rosberg the podium that even Lewis Hamilton acknowledged he deserved.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Sergio Perez at 4.0 - LOSS
Despite recording the fastest lap of the race, Sergio was only able to bring his car home in 9th position.

Top Ten Finish:
20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 2.88 - LOSS
Although he made it to within five laps of the finish and was therefore technically classified, exhaust problems brought an end to Ricciardo's race on lap 51.

Race Match Bet - Nico Rosberg V Jenson Button:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 1.73 - WIN 35 points
McLaren and particularly Jenson's pace looked much improved from Australia but they still appear to have ground to make up before they can match Mercedes.

Lap 1 Leader:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 5.5 - LOSS
As I suspected there was quite a bit of place swapping at the start of the race, but it didn't go in Alonso's favour.





Going against the form of last season, my pre-qualifying tips have so far had more success than my post-qualifying tips at both Grand Prix this season:

Pre-qualifying tips - 2
Post-qualifying tips - 0

Although the early season form of the teams is becoming slightly clearer now, it's nevertheless still early days and therefore I would recommend restrained betting until a few races further into the season, but I'll be making another set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Chinese Grand Prix in a couple of weeks time.


Other recent posts:
Driver Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season 
Formula 1 Betting Markets: Part 1 - Winning Driver
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Which Formula 1 Driver Is The Most Popular In His Home Country?


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