Saturday, 23 March 2013

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from and see which set of tips perform best.  At the Australian Grand Prix my pre-qualifying tips came out on top so I'll see if I can do better with my post-qualifying tips this time.

According to the weather forecast there's a 60% chance of rain for tomorrow's race (at the time of writing) with the chance of a storm being mentioned by some forecasters, so the uncertainty introduces a bigger element of randomness than we could usually expect before a race.  I'm therefore going to take a gamble on a wet race and stay away from the favourites and instead edge towards some of the longer priced drivers with my tips for tomorrow's race.

Race Winner:
10 points on Felipe Massa at 9.0
Felipe is on an upward curve at the moment and has now out-qualified his team-mate Alonso for the fourth successive Grand Prix.  Fernando has consistently shown that he has the upper hand during races, however, so you can understand why the bookies price him much shorter than Massa for the victory, but I'm nevertheless tempted by a small speculative bet on Felipe Massa at odds of 9.0.

20 points on Nico Rosberg at 5.5
Nico Rosberg was confident that he was looking at a chance of pole position if the rain hadn't came, and the Mercedes' pace in the dry looks impressive.  This is a tip which could be affected by the unpredictability of a wet race but Mercedes have shown solid form so far this weekend, so odds of 5.5 for Nico to take a podium seem like reasonable value.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Sergio Perez at 4.0
Given McLaren's current pace, Sergio Perez needs a wet race to have a realistic chance of making the top six, but if we do get rain then Perez proved last year that he loves the Sepang track and is more than capable of putting in an impressive performance in the wet.

Top Ten Finish:

20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 2.88
Although Ricciardo retired from the Australian Grand Prix, he nevertheless had a strong end to 2012, finishing in the points at 5 of the last 9 Grand Prix of the season.  The long straights and wide track at the Sepang International Circuit mean overtaking is less of a challenge than at most races and therefore grid position is less important than usual, so starting outside the top ten isn't a major issue.  Starting from 13th, Ricciardo therefore is in with a decent shot of a points finish and looks reasonably positioned to capitalise if any of the drivers ahead of him on the grid struggle during the race.

Race Match Bet - Nico Rosberg V Jenson Button:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 1.73
There are more variables to consider than usual, such as the potential for a wet race and the question of whether Rosberg will have better reliability this time out, but the Mercedes currently looks a faster car than the McLaren, so I'm going to have a punt on Nico Rosberg to finish ahead of Jenson Button in tomorrow's Grand Prix.

Lap 1 Leader:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 5.5
Sebastian Vettel is rightly the odds on favourite in the Lap 1 Leader market, so this is another speculative bet.  Admittedly, Vettel is pretty solid right from the moment the lights go green but Alonso generally makes up places during the race and a wet race tomorrow could lead to more place swapping than usual on the first lap.

I've gone pretty much out on a limb with the weather so if we do get a dry race tomorrow then that could throw a spanner in the works for my strategy of steering clear of the favourites.  There's therefore a greater degree of risk attached than usual, but I'll check back after the weekend to see how my tips performed.

Other recent posts:
The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Pre-Qualifying Tips
Driver Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season
Formula 1 Betting Markets: Part 1 - Winning Driver
What Are The Most Popular Worldwide Sports Based On Google Searches?

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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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