Friday, 22 March 2013

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from and see which set of tips perform best.

My pre-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix sneaked a small profit so I'll see if I can make that a bigger profit for the Malaysian Grand Prix...

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0
Given the variety of race winners we had in 2012, the winning driver market was the trickiest betting market to make a profit from last season.  I'm therefore cautious about going for the favourites at this early stage of the season.  The form of the Red Bulls so far this weekend has looked potentially good enough for a victory with Mark Webber going fastest in first practise.  Admittedly that doesn't mean a great deal, but Mark nevertheless looks reasonable value for a small speculative bet at odds of 13.0.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 1.67
In 2012 Alonso Fernando was an excellent bet in the Podium Finish market and he seems to have started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place in Melbourne.  Despite his short odds therefore I'm going to go for Fernando Alonso for another podium finish at odds of 1.67.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 2.25
Nico Rosberg looked like a contender for the top six at Melbourne before his retirement on lap 26, so if he experiences better reliability this weekend then you would expect him to be fighting for a top six finish once again.

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To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Paul Di Resta at 1.62
It's early days, but Force India look like they've made a step since last season.  Paul Di Resta went well in Australia and felt he could have got 7th if not for team orders towards the end of the race, and the Force Indias have also looked solid in practise so far at Malaysia.  I usually prefer to go for a reasonably long priced driver in the Top Ten Finish market but for once I'm going to break that trend with a small bet on Paul Di Resta for a points finish at odds of 1.62.

Safety Car:

10 points on Safety Car - Yes at 1.5

I've visited Kuala Lumpar several times and love the city, but I know from my own experiences in Malaysia that late afternoon can be prone to some extreme rain showers.  Since the start time for the Malaysian Grand Prix was pushed back a couple of seasons ago for the benefit of European TV audiences, the later race time therefore increases the chances of another rain affected race on Sunday which could increase the chances of a safety car.  The bookies are probably right therefore to make 'Yes' the odds on favourite option in the Safety Car market.

Qualifying Match Bet:
10 points on Felipe Massa To Outqualify Fernando Alonso at 2.75
For the majority of 2012 this would have been a foolish or even crazy bet, but Felipe turned his form around at the end of last season and also narrowly outqualified Fernando at Melbourne, so at odds of 2.75 I'm tempted to go for a small bet that Felipe manages to outqualify Alonso once again.

As Kimi's victory in Australia showed, early in the season it's always hard to predict how things will turn out at the first few Grand Prix of the year.  Once again I would therefore suggest that perhaps it may be wise to wait until after qualifying before making any bets, so as usual I'll be making another set of tips after qualifying, and then seeing how my predictions compare.

Other recent posts:
Driver Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season
Formula 1 Betting Markets: Part 1 - Winning Driver
What Are The Most Popular Worldwide Sports Based On Google Searches?

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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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