Sunday, 17 March 2013

The Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Australian Grand Prix

Rain meant we had to wait longer than expected to discover the starting grid positions, but once things were finally decided it was clear that the pace Red Bull showed during practise was no fluke and therefore as you would expect the Red Bull drivers feature heavily in my post-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix.

It's always more of a risk betting on the first Grand Prix of the season, but I'll see how I go...

To Win Outright:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.67

The Red Bull's strong form so far this weekend and Vettel's pole mean that the bookies make him the odds on favourite and I can't really disagree.  I don't usually like betting on an odds on favourite in formula 1 but when you also consider that three of the last five Australian Grand Prix have been won from pole you have to conclude that Vettel seems like the sensible bet.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Mark Webber at 1.73
Mark Webber hasn't always gone well at the Australian Grand Prix in the past, but the Red Bulls look to be the class of the field, so starting from second Mark looks a fairly decent bet (barring mechanical problems) to start the season with a podium.

Top Six Finish:
10 points on Nico Rosberg at 1.73
Mercedes look to have made a step forward since last season and of the drivers behind Rosberg on the grid, Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver who I think will put pressure on Nico for a top six position during the race.

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To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
10 points on Paul Di Resta at 1.91
When you consider that Jenson Button was over a second behind Paul Di Resta during Q3, I can't see Di Resta facing too much pressure from Jenson during the race.  A bigger threat may come from Nico Hulkenberg or Adrian Sutil, but qualifying ninth I would expect Paul Di Resta to hold onto his top ten qualifying position and register a points scoring start to the season.

Button's Finishing Position:
30 points on Jenson Button to finish 7th or worse at 1.67

Given his record at Melbourne I fancied Jenson for another win earlier in the week but from first practise it became immediately clear that the McLaren was way off the pace.  Jenson qualified almost three seconds behind Sebastian Vettel and given that it looks like we can expect a dry race you would have to conclude that the chances of Jenson making it into the top six seem slim and therefore odds of 1.67 for him to finish 7th or worse seem quite generous.

Lap One Leader:
10 points on Mark Webber at 7.0
Sebastian Vettel is rightly the odds on favourite to be leading at the end of lap one, but at odds of 7.0 it's worth a small speculative bet on Mark Webber leading his team-mate at the end of lap one.

At the start of a new season it's always hard to predict how things will turn out at the first Grand Prix of the year so treat these predictions with caution!

Other recent posts:
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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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