Thursday, 11 April 2013

The Chinese Grand Prix: Shanghai Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Chinese Grand Prix

Before every Grand Prix I place a few hypothetical pre and post qualifying bets using the odds available from and then compare which set of tips perform best.

So far this season my pre-qualifying tips have out-performed my post-qualifying tips, so I'll see if I can continue that trend at the Chinese Grand Prix...

Race Winner (eachway): 
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Mark Webber at 9.0
Mark is currently second in the championship and Red Bull have the fastest car on the grid, so Webber looks like a reasonable eachway bet at odds of 9.0 for the race victory.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places for eachway bets.

Podium Finish:
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Price Boost)
Mercedes have performed better than expected so far this season, and Lewis has a consistent record at Shanghai (3rd, 1st and 2nd over the last 3 years), so I'm tempted by SkyBet's price boost from 2.88 to 3.0 for Hamilton to finish on the podium.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 1.83
Odds of 1.83 for Rosberg to register a top six finish seem quite generous considering Mercedes' strong start to the season and the fact that Rosberg tends to go well at China (1st, 5th and 3rd over the last 3 years).

Fastest Qualifier:
15 points on Sebastian Vettel at 2.0
Vettel has been on pole for both Grand Prix so far this season and has shown throughout his career that if you give him the fastest car then more often than not he puts it on pole.

Qualifying Margin:
10 points on 0.2 Seconds Or More at 1.91
Vettel's poles in Australia and Malaysia were by decent sized margins, so although rain played its part in previous qualifying sessions, I fancy Vettel to produce a decent qualifying margin once again.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Sergio Perez at 1.73
McLaren haven't had the best of starts to the season, but a top ten finish doesn't look out of the question for Sergio Perez.

. . . . . . . .

One other bet to look out for is Massa to outqualify Alonso in the qualifying match bet market.  At the time of writing odds weren't currently available (SkyBet generally open this market closer to the qualifying session), but as Felipe has outqualified Alonso for 4 straight races now he's worth considering if the bookies once again price Alonso as the heavy odds on favourite.

As I've stressed on more than one occasion, early in the season it's always hard to predict how things will turn out so treat the above predictions with caution.  As usual I'll be making another set of tips after qualifying, and then comparing how the two sets of tips perform.

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Other recent posts:
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Formula 1 Betting Markets: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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