Sunday, 28 April 2013

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As the formula 1 calendar has a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I thought I would make use of the time to analyse the season so far from a betting point of view and compare which drivers have been the most profitable bets in each of the most popular betting markets.

I've therefore looked at the pre-qualifying odds offered by SkyBet at each Grand Prix of the season and then compiled a few charts showing which drivers would have returned the biggest profit in various markets if you'd bet on them at every race.

As we've only had three different race winners so far, the Winning Driver chart is fairly straight forward:

Winning Driver Profit* Winning Bet
Kimi Raikkonen 5.00 1
Sebastian Vettel 2.30 2
Fernando Alonso 0.50 1
Rest Of The Field -4.00 0

* The 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix of the season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

Before the season started Kimi Raikkonen was available at odds of 8.0 for the victory in Melbourne, and after his opening victory it quickly became apparent that Kimi looks to be a serious contender this season.  His odds since Australia therefore haven't been quite so generous, so bear this in mind when considering the above figures.

As we're only four races into the season, the chart for Winning Driver is fairly basic at this stage of the season, and it's not really until later in the year that the statistics will start to be of greater interest.  At this early stage I've pretty much just compiled it out of minor curiosity, rather than to highlight an in depth analysis of which drivers have produced the greatest profit.

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Next up is the Podium Finish market and as we've had 6 podium finishers so far this season, the podium chart is a bit more detailed:

Podium Finish Profit Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean 8.00 1
Kimi Raikkonen 2.75 3
Lewis Hamilton 2.00 2
Sebastian Vettel 0.54 3
Mark Webber -0.50 1
Fernando Alonso -0.27 2
Rest Of The Field -4.00 0

Early last week before the Bahrain Grand Prix weekend started, Romain Grosjean was available at odds of 11.0 for a podium, so he's maybe worth keeping an eye on for future Grand Prix as Grosjean is generally priced a lot more generously than team-mate Kimi Raikkonen and yet he still tends to achieve the occasional strong result (last season he was on the podium 3 tmes).  Of course Grosjean lacks the consistency of the likes of Raikkonen and Vettel so he's much more of a gamble, but if you fancy a speculative bet then he's perhaps one driver worth considering.

If you're looking for a safe bet though, then Kimi Raikkonen would have to be the top choice in the podium market based on results so far this season.  Sebastian Vettel is the only other driver to match Kimi's three podiums but Vettel's odds have generally tended to be slightly shorter than Kimi's.

That's the Winning Driver and Podium Finish markets covered. Over the next few days I'll be posting the 'betting profit' charts for the Top Six Finish and Top Ten Finish markets and once again analysing which drivers have been the best bets so far this season.

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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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