The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Post-Qualifying Tips

"In these conditions, it's more of a lottery and the driver can make more of a difference. " ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

I've pretty much banked on a wet race with several of these tips, but I reckon the wisest strategy is probably to check the weather predictions closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred)
Alonso was unlucky with the timing of the rain in Q3 and as a result ended up 9th on the grid, but he had the pace in Q1 and Q2, and he seems confident for his chances in the race.  Track position isn't as vital at Spa as at certain other tracks, especially if we get a wet race, so although Fernando's podium consistency hasn't been quite as strong this year as it was in 2012, odds of 3.0 are enough to tempt me into a small bet on Alonso to make up places during the race and finish on the podium.

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Post-Qualifying Tips

"It's a little bit of an understatement to say that we have mixed emotions after qualifying." ...Ross Brawn

Once again it was a battle between Mercedes and Red Bull for pole, but the higher temperatures seemed to suit Lotus and Ferrari who weren't too far off the pace and overall things looks well balanced for an exciting race.

Fernando Alonso commented, "It is about the pace tomorrow - not the tyres or the strategy," but if we get a few cars closely matched for pace then strategy could still be the deciding factor.  I personally think Ferrari's strategy of qualifying on the medium tyres could prove to be a shrewd move, but it remains to be seen just how things will play out.

Here are my post-qualifying tips for the German Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 (BetFred)
Ferrari took a bit of a gamble in qualifying by running medium tyres in Q3 and as a result they qualified 7th and 8th.  However, grid position isn't as crucial in modern formula 1 as it was in years gone by and you don't win any points on a Saturday, so it may ultimately prove to be a wise decision by Ferrari to focus on the race.  Alonso goes into this race with three podiums from the last four Grand Prix and on each of those occasions he started 5th, 6th and 9th and has proven to be a driver who consistently makes up places during the races.

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The German Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed some of the most profitable formula 1 bets of the 2013 season, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

As usual I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and also a selection of longer priced more risky bets.

Since I started splitting my tips I've had mixed fortunes, with decent returns at Spain and Monaco but poor results at Canada and Silverstone.  If you prefer to pay more attention to the form guide than my own predictions (which may be wise on current form!) then you can find the formula 1 betting form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Anyway, here are my predictions for the German Grand Prix... 

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.44 (SkyBet)
Given that Lewis has qualified on the front row for the last four Grand Prix now, you can understand why the bookies price him so short.  Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg is priced similarly short (at odds of 1.53) and with four front row finishes from the last five qualifying sessions he's also worth considering, but Lewis is the driver I'm going for.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on 0.15 Seconds Or More at 1.67 (SkyBet)
It's fairly competitive at the front of the field between Mercedes and Red Bull right now, but the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 has been 0.39 and only two qualifying sessions this season have seen a front row separated by less than 0.15 seconds.

The Chinese Grand Prix: Shanghai Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Chinese Grand Prix

Before every Grand Prix I place a few hypothetical pre and post qualifying bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and then compare which set of tips perform best.

So far this season my pre-qualifying tips have out-performed my post-qualifying tips, so I'll see if I can continue that trend at the Chinese Grand Prix...

Race Winner (eachway): 
10 points eachway* (20 points total) on Mark Webber at 9.0
Mark is currently second in the championship and Red Bull have the fastest car on the grid, so Webber looks like a reasonable eachway bet at odds of 9.0 for the race victory.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for first 3 places for eachway bets.

Podium Finish:
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Price Boost)
Mercedes have performed better than expected so far this season, and Lewis has a consistent record at Shanghai (3rd, 1st and 2nd over the last 3 years), so I'm tempted by SkyBet's price boost from 2.88 to 3.0 for Hamilton to finish on the podium.

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.

My pre-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix sneaked a small profit so I'll see if I can make that a bigger profit for the Malaysian Grand Prix...

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0
Given the variety of race winners we had in 2012, the winning driver market was the trickiest betting market to make a profit from last season.  I'm therefore cautious about going for the favourites at this early stage of the season.  The form of the Red Bulls so far this weekend has looked potentially good enough for a victory with Mark Webber going fastest in first practise.  Admittedly that doesn't mean a great deal, but Mark nevertheless looks reasonable value for a small speculative bet at odds of 13.0.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 1.67
In 2012 Alonso Fernando was an excellent bet in the Podium Finish market and he seems to have started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place in Melbourne.  Despite his short odds therefore I'm going to go for Fernando Alonso for another podium finish at odds of 1.67.

The Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Australian Grand Prix

Rain meant we had to wait longer than expected to discover the starting grid positions, but once things were finally decided it was clear that the pace Red Bull showed during practise was no fluke and therefore as you would expect the Red Bull drivers feature heavily in my post-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix.

It's always more of a risk betting on the first Grand Prix of the season, but I'll see how I go...

To Win Outright:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.67
The Red Bull's strong form so far this weekend and Vettel's pole mean that the bookies make him the odds on favourite and I can't really disagree.  I don't usually like betting on an odds on favourite in formula 1 but when you also consider that three of the last five Australian Grand Prix have been won from pole you have to conclude that Vettel seems like the sensible bet.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Mark Webber at 1.73
Mark Webber hasn't always gone well at the Australian Grand Prix in the past, but the Red Bulls look to be the class of the field, so starting from second Mark looks a fairly decent bet (barring mechanical problems) to start the season with a podium.

Early Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season

An analysis of the formula 1 odds for 2013.

It's only a few weeks since the 2012 formula 1 season ended and I'm already getting withdrawal symptoms.  So to help me cope with the close season I thought I would have a look at the early odds for the 2013 driver's formula 1 championship.

Looking at the odds available from SkyBet, you can pretty much divide the field into three groups of drivers; the favourites, the outside contenders and the longshots.

The favourites:
Perhaps not surprisingly, SkyBet's odds seem to suggest that we're in for another two way battle between Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, with the pair of them the clear favourites in the current betting:

Sebastian Vettel - 2.25
Fernando Alonso - 3.25