Sunday, 29 September 2013

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

As usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel1.225
Kimi Raikkonen1.173
Fernando Alonso1.064
Romain Grosjean0.501
Mark Webber-0.682
Lewis Hamilton-1.252
Nico Rosberg-2.921
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

There's not much in it between the front three of Vettel, Raikkonen and Alonso, but it's worth mentioning that the above returns are based on each driver's odds when the market opened.  After Kimi qualified 13th at Singapore his podium odds drifted out considerably, so you could therefore be looking at a much bigger return if you'd timed your bet just right.  Alonso is another driver where timing is key as he generally qualifies a few grid slots back then consistently makes up places during the race.

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The second chart shows the 'Betting Profit' returns for the entire season...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Entire Season):

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean11.002
Kimi Raikkonen3.427
Sebastian Vettel1.6610
Fernando Alonso0.448
Lewis Hamilton-0.865
Mark Webber-0.874
Nico Rosberg-7.302
Felipe Massa-8.001
Rest Of The Field-13.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

The best speculative podium bet this season has been Romain Grosjean, the safest bet has been Sebastian Vettel and if you're looking for a bet somewhere in the middle then Kimi Raikkonen is probably the driver to go for.

. . . . . . . .

Still to come in my round-up of the formula 1 form guide are Top Six Finish, Top Ten Finish and Miscellaneous Bets.

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Related posts:
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets
Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

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