Formula 1 Tips For The Brazilian Grand Prix
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.38
If we were looking at a dry race tomorrow then my money would be firmly on Lewis Hamilton at odds of 2.38 to make it two wins in a row. However, whenever there's a wet race the favourites are generally underpriced and their odds don't really take into account the unpredictability that rain adds to a Grand Prix. With a wet race predicted for tomorrow I'm therefore going to limit myself to only 10 points on Lewis Hamilton and back this up with 10 points eachway on Felipe Massa.
Race Winner (Eachway):
10 points on Felipe Massa at 34.0 (5 points on the win, 5 points eachway)*
Felipe Massa has been in much improved form during the final third of the season and for the second weekend running has out-qualified team-mate Alonso. There remains the possibility of team orders rearing its head at some stage, but Massa won his home Grand Prix back in 2006 and 2008 (driving an excellent race in the wet in 2008) so at odds of 34.0 he looks worth a small bet in the eachway market.
* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first three places.
To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Bruno Senna at 2.0
5 points on Heikki Kovalainen at 23.0
5 points on Vitaly Petrov at 26.0
The rain can be a bit of a leveller in formula 1, negating to some degree the aerodynamical advantage of the front running cars. In wet conditions the Top Ten market therefore has increased appeal due to the unpredictability creating a greater chance for the midfield drivers and backmarkers to finish higher up the order than you'd usually expect, so I'm going to go for a range of bets in this market. Bruno Senna has a decent record this year for sneaking into the lower end of the points scoring positions with 10 top ten finishes from 19 Grand Prix (and a points scoring finish at each of the last three Grand Prix). It's also worth noting that he recorded his best finish of the season in the changeable conditions at Malaysia earlier this year when he brought his car home in 6th position. Usually a bet on the Caterhams of Kovalainen and Petrov to finish in the top ten would be pretty accurately described as throwing money away, but with a high probabiity of a wet race I've been tempted into a couple of small speculative bets.
30 points on Safety Car - Yes at 1.33
Even in dry races, the enclosed nature of the start finish straight at Interlagos means an increased chance of the need for a safety car, so with a wet race predicted for tomorrow's race, the short odds on a safety car period still don't deter me from a bet on the safety car making an appearance at some stage in tomorrow's race.
Total Classified Finishers
10 points on Under 19.5 Finishers at 1.67
I got this market wildly wrong at the United States Grand Prix last Sunday but with wet conditions predicted there's an increased chance of incidents and accidents, so I'm going to risk another bet in this market by going once again for under 19.5 finishers in tomorrow's Brazilian Grand Prix.
Not To Be Classified:
10 points on Romain Grosjean at 3.75*
Since I started tipping this bet, Grosjean has for the most part cut down on his first lap incidents, but with 6 retirements from 19 Grand Prix I'm nevertheless going to have one last bet on Grosjean not to be classified in tomorrow's race.
* If a driver retires within five laps of the finish they would still be classified.
As you can see I've based by bets very heavily on the weather forecast and as weather forecasting is never an exact science that does leave me potentially open to unexpected race conditions, so we'll see how I go.
As already mentioned, I also placed a few hypothetical points bets before qualifying so I'll report back after the race and see how the two sets of bets compare.
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Footnote: All odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.
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