Tuesday, 20 November 2012

United States Grand Prix: Austin Tips Round-Up

An exciting Grand Prix, but an average performance from my formula 1 tips...

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Both sets of tips performed quite averagely this week, although once again my post-qualifying tips just managed to outperform my pre-qualifying tips, so the way things are developing it’s looking like waiting until after qualifying before placing your formula 1 bets is definitely a wise strategy.

This is how my post-qualifying tips performed…

To Finish On The Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.5 – WIN 35 points
Fernando is becoming the master at qualifying on the 3rd or 4th row of the grid and then making up a few places during the race to finish up on the podium and he did it once again at the United States Grand Prix.  He was arguably helped by Ferrari’s clever and sneaky tactic of forcing a five grid sot penalty for Felipe Massa by breaking the seal on his gear box, but I think there’s a strong case that even without this pre-race tactic Fernando would very probably have still made the podium.  Anyway, if he qualifies in a similar position at Brazil then he’s worth considering once again for another podium finish.

Top Six Finish:
15 points on Kimi Raikkonen at odds of 1.33 – WIN 20 points
Kimi has been the model of consistency in the Top Six market, and has now made it 12 top six finishes from the last 13 Grand Prix.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
10 points on Bruno Senna at 2.25 – WIN 23 points
For the tenth time this season, Senna managed to sneak into the lower end of the points scoring positions, ensuring this was a winning bet in the process.

Safety Car:
10 points on Safety Car - Yes at 1.73 - LOSS
The pre-race predictions of first corner mayhem never materialized and a safety car was never called upon during the United States Grand Prix.

Lap 1 Retirements:
5 points on Exactly 3 at 19.00 - LOSS
This was another bet based on the pre-race predictions and therefore another losing bet.

Total Classified Finishers:
10 points on Under 19.5 Finishers at 1.83 - LOSS
With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps I would have been better to stick to tipping bets based on driver performance rather than attempting to predict results based on potential accidents.

Not To Be Classified:
10 points on Nico Rosberg at 5.0 - LOSS

Kovalainen V Petrov:
10 points on Heikki Kovalainen at 1.91 - LOSS

Ricciardo V Vergne:
10 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 2.0 – WIN 20 points

Maldonado V Senna:
10 points on Bruno Senna at 2.25 - LOSS

Making an overall return of 98 points and therefore an overall loss of 2 points.

This is how my pre-qualifying tips performed…

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 5.0 - LOSS
At one stage Ricciardo was running as high as 6th but this was largely due to the effects of the pitstops and ultimately Ricciardo couldn’t quite make it into the top ten.

To Qualify On The Front Row:
20 points on Mark Webber to Qualify On The Front Row at 1.91 - LOSS
Mark Webber’s run of four consecutive front row starts came to an end as he qualified in third place.
Top Six Finish:
20 points on Felipe Massa at 2.38 – WIN 48 points
Felipe’s poor early season form now looks a distant memory as despite his selfless pre-race grid penalty he still managed to make his way up to fourth to record his 6th top six finish in 8 Grand Prix. 

Race Winner: 
10 points on Sebastian Vettel at 2.25
Vettel complained that Lewis Hamilton’s move to take the lead was helped by backmarker Narain Karthikeyan holding him up, but even without this incident Lewis was right on Vettel’s tail and may have got past him at some stage anyway.

Qualifying Winning Margin: 
10 points on Under 0.15 Seconds at 2.0 – WIN 20 points
After first practice it looked like Sebstian Vettel could potentially be dominant in qualifying, but Lewis pushed him hard and in the end there was only a tenth between the two front row drivers.

Grand Prix Winning Margin: 
10 points on Under 6 Seconds at 2.0 – WIN 20 points
The battle at the front was closely thought and so despite Lewis managing to get past Vettel he was unable to pull away and in the end only 0.6 seconds separated the two drivers as they crossed the line at the end of the race.

Retire On The First Lap: 
5 points on Romain Grosjean at 23.0 - LOSS
Since I started tipping this bet, Romain Grosjean seems to have sorted out his previously dodgy starts and that was the case once again at the US Grand Prix.. 

5 points on Sergio Perez at 23.0 - LOSS

Making an overall return of 88 points from 100 points and therefore an overall loss of 12 points.

Since I started this blog, my post-qualifying tips have tended to have the edge over my pre-qualifying tips and the running totals in the head to head between the two sets of tips now stands at:

Pre-qualifying tips – 5.5
Post-qualifying tips – 1.5

With thirteen points separating Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso in the championship battle, we're set for an exciting finale to the season in Brazil, so I’ll be making my final set of pre-qualifying tips for the season on Thursday.

Disclaimer:  A small bet can make a formula 1 race more exciting but gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with a free bet, so if you'd like the chance to claim a totally free £10 bet then sign up to SkyBet today using the banner link below:


Footnote: All odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

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