The Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Spanish Grand Prix

Yesterday I rounded up the most profitable bets and also the safest bets so far this season in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Formula 1 wouldn't be as fun if you reduced it to nothing more than a list of statistics though, so as usual I'm going to be making a set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Spanish Grand Prix and then see how I get on compared to the form guide.

To do things slightly different this time out, first of all I'm going to highlight my favourite 'safe' bets and then follow this with a selection of 'risky' bets.  Then as the season progresses I should be able to analyse whether it's generally better to go for short priced favourites or longer priced outsiders.  Obviously there's no such thing as a totally safe bet and all bets have an element of risk attached, so more appropriate names might perhaps be 'Shorter Priced Bets' and 'Longer Priced Bets'.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Spanish Grand Prix split into two categories...

Spanish Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I usually make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  However, as we had a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I also decided to analyse the performance of the drivers so far this season to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular betting markets.

You can find the full results in my previous posts over the last week but to summarise, going on the statistics from the first four Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 2: Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

To help me cope with my formula 1 withdrawal symptoms during the three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, a few days ago I analysed the Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting markets to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets so far this season.

Not surprisingly, Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen have been two of the safest drivers to bet on so far, but if you want to see the full Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting profit charts then you can find them at the following link:

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Today I move onto the Top Six betting market and just to explain once again, the following chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver for a top six finish at every Grand Prix:

Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos Tips Round-Up

An unbelievably exciting finish to an absolutely classic season.

Before I move onto my tips I just want to say how much I've absolutely loved the 2012 formula 1 season.  I first got into formula 1 during the days of Michael Schumacher, Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve, Mika Hakkinen, etc, and although those first few few seasons as a formula 1 fan got me completely hooked, I think it's fair to say that in terms of excitement and entertainment the bar just keeps getting higher.

Credit to the drivers for some of the amazing races we've witnessed this season and credit also to all the teams for the current atmosphere of co-operation which has allowed rivalries to be put aside for the greater good of the sport.  Today's race has to go down as another brilliantly dramatic finale to a formula 1 season and I'm already looking forward to 2013.

Anyway, this is how my post-qualifying tips performed...

Race Winner:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.38 - LOSS
Things were looking good for Lewis Hamilton until lap 54 when Nico Hulkenberg slid into him at the first corner and put him out of the race.

Race Winner (Eachway):
10 points on Felipe Massa at 34.0 (5 points on the win - LOSS, 5 points eachway - WIN 33 points)*
Felipe Massa rounded off his strong finish to the season with a podium at his home Grand Prix, ensuring a return of 33 points from this bet.

* On an eachway bet, SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first three places.

Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Brazilian Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:
Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos Pre-Qualifying Tips

Before I make my post-qualifying tips, once again I would add a note of caution to anyone placing a bet on tomorrow's Grand Prix, as the current weather forecast predicts a high possibility of a wet race which will of course add a degree of unpredictability to things making all betting markets harder to predict.  So bearing that in mind, here are my post-qualifying tips... 

Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos Pre-Quaifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Brazilian Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

I would add a note of caution to keep an eye on the weather forecast for Sunday's race, as a wet race will of course add a degree of unpredictability to things making all betting markets harder to predict.  Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips...

Race Winner:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.75
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel looked to be the class of the field in the US, so you have to fancy them to contest things again in Brazil.  Lewis just had the edge on Sunday and with Vettel being focussed on the championship he'll be primarily concerned with finishing ahead of Alonso and therefore unlikely to want to take too many risks battling for the lead.  I'm therefore edging slightly towards Lewis Hamilton at odds of 3.75.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 3.5
A poor qualifying session hindered his chances at the US Grand Prix, but Ricciardo has nevertheless managed 5 top ten finishes from the last 8 Grand Prix and therefore looks decent value for a points scoring finish at Interlagos at odds of 3.5.

United States Grand Prix: Austin Tips Round-Up

An exciting Grand Prix, but an average performance from my formula 1 tips...

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Both sets of tips performed quite averagely this week, although once again my post-qualifying tips just managed to outperform my pre-qualifying tips, so the way things are developing it’s looking like waiting until after qualifying before placing your formula 1 bets is definitely a wise strategy.

This is how my post-qualifying tips performed…

To Finish On The Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.5 – WIN 35 points
Fernando is becoming the master at qualifying on the 3rd or 4th row of the grid and then making up a few places during the race to finish up on the podium and he did it once again at the United States Grand Prix.  He was arguably helped by Ferrari’s clever and sneaky tactic of forcing a five grid sot penalty for Felipe Massa by breaking the seal on his gear box, but I think there’s a strong case that even without this pre-race tactic Fernando would very probably have still made the podium.  Anyway, if he qualifies in a similar position at Brazil then he’s worth considering once again for another podium finish.

Top Six Finish:
15 points on Kimi Raikkonen at odds of 1.33 – WIN 20 points
Kimi has been the model of consistency in the Top Six market, and has now made it 12 top six finishes from the last 13 Grand Prix.

The Indian Grand Prix: New Delhi Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Indian Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:

The Indian Grand Prix: New Delhi Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips... 

To Win Outright: 
15 points on Lewis Hamilton at 8.0 
On current form you can understand why Sebastian Vettel is the 1.4 odds on favourite but at odds like that there’s not much money to be made.  In Lewis Hamilton's post-qualifying interviews, he seemed to think that McLaren have the pace to give the Red Bulls a fight in tomorrow's race so I'm going to go for a small bet on Lewis Hamilton for the win at odds of 8.0. 

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish): 
20 points on Bruno Senna at 3.0 
Both the Williams drivers of Pastor Maldonado and Bruno Senna seemed to think they could have got more out of qualifying.  Added to this, Senna tends to race better than he qualifies so although he’s been out of sorts in recent Grand Prix, starting from 13th tomorrow he has to be considered for a points finish.

The Korean Grand Prix: Yeongam Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Korean Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from OLBG.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

To Win Outright: 
25 points on Lewis Hamilton at 4.5
Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular looked very strong at Suzuka, but given the unpredictable nature of the season so far, Vettel's odds of 2.62 look a little short.  Lewis Hamilton had a bad day at the office in Suzuka but a lot of that was down to Lewis going in the wrong direction with car set-up, so he'll be aiming to bounce back to form in Korea.  Admittedly, the reliability of the McLaren hasn't been too great in recent races but before Japan, Lewis had won the last two races that he managed finished, so at odds of 4.5 for the victory he looks a slightly more attractive bet than Sebastian Vettel. 

To Finish On The Podium:
15 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5
Excluding retirements (neither of which were Fernando's or Ferrari's fault), Alonso has finished on the podium at all but two of the last eleven Grand Prix.  His consistency therefore makes him an attractive bet for the podium at odds of 2.5.