Sunday, 25 November 2012

Brazilian Grand Prix: Interlagos Tips Round-Up

An unbelievably exciting finish to an absolutely classic season.

Before I move onto my tips I just want to say how much I've absolutely loved the 2012 formula 1 season.  I first got into formula 1 during the days of Michael Schumacher, Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve, Mika Hakkinen, etc, and although those first few few seasons as a formula 1 fan got me completely hooked, I think it's fair to say that in terms of excitement and entertainment the bar just keeps getting higher.

Credit to the drivers for some of the amazing races we've witnessed this season and credit also to all the teams for the current atmosphere of co-operation which has allowed rivalries to be put aside for the greater good of the sport.  Today's race has to go down as another brilliantly dramatic finale to a formula 1 season and I'm already looking forward to 2013.

Anyway, this is how my post-qualifying tips performed...

Race Winner:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.38 - LOSS
Things were looking good for Lewis Hamilton until lap 54 when Nico Hulkenberg slid into him at the first corner and put him out of the race.

Race Winner (Eachway):
10 points on Felipe Massa at 34.0 (5 points on the win - LOSS, 5 points eachway - WIN 33 points)*
Felipe Massa rounded off his strong finish to the season with a podium at his home Grand Prix, ensuring a return of 33 points from this bet.

* On an eachway bet, SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first three places.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Bruno Senna at 2.0 - LOSS
5 points on Heikki Kovalainen at 23.0 - LOSS
5 points on Vitaly Petrov at 26.0 - LOSS
Bruno Senna's race was over on the first lap thanks to a coming together with Sebastian Vettel.  My bets on the Caterhams were admittedly speculative and despite a determined drive to 11th position from Vitaly Petrov which earned Caterham an important 10th spot in the Constructor's Championship, he wasn't quite able to do enough to make it into the points scoring positions.

Safety Car:
30 points on Safety Car - Yes at 1.33 - WIN 40 points
The predicted wet race, combined with the enclosed nature of the Interlagos start finish straight, meant that a safety car period looked a strong probability, and so it proved to be as debris on the track fairly early on and Di Resta's late crash meant that the safety car was required on two occasions during this exciting climax to the season.

Total Classified Finishers
10 points on Under 19.5 Finishers at 1.67 - WIN 17 points
The difficult conditions meant an above average attrition rate and with only 19 classified finishers this proved to be a winning bet.

Not To Be Classified:
10 points on Romain Grosjean at 3.75 - WIN 38 points
When a wet Grand Prix is predicted you can sometimes find decent value in the Not To Be Classified market and when Romain Grosjean crashed out on the 6th lap, this proved to be another winning bet.

Making an overall return of 128 points from 100 points and therefore an overall profit of 28 points.

Wet conditions add an element of unpredictability to any Grand Prix, so although I made my post-qualifying tips with a wet race in mind, there was still nevertheless a strong degree of luck in the fact that I made a profit.  My pre-qualifying tips didn't quite have that same slice of luck...

To Qualify On The Front Row:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.67 - WIN 17 points

Race Winner:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.75 - LOSS

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 3.5 - LOSS

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.4 - LOSS

To Finish On The Podium:
20 points on Mark Webber at 3.0 - LOSS

Grand Prix Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 6 Seconds at 2.0 - WIN 20 points
Jenson Button had a comfortable twenty second margin until the late safety car period closed the field up and made this a winning bet.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.73 - WIN 17 points

Making an overall return of 54 points and therefore an overall loss of 46 points.

I started this blog to analyse whether it's better to wait until after qualifying before placing your formula 1 bets, and since I started making predictions a few races ago, the head to head running totals between my pre and post qualifying tips now stand at:

Pre-qualifying tips - 1.5
Post-qualifying tips - 6.5

So I think it's fair to share that waiting until the grid is decided would appear to be the wisest strategy when betting on formula 1.

That's it for now until next season, but I'll probably publish the occasional post over the Winter break covering some of the odds available on the forthcoming 2013 championship.  I'll maybe also feature a few posts analysing the statistics of the 2012 season, so follow F1TipsBlog on twitter to stay up-to-date with any blog updates:

Anyway, it's been a great season so let's hope 2013 season is just as exciting and entertaining.

Disclaimer:  A small bet can make a formula 1 race more exciting but gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with a free bet, so if you'd like the chance to claim a totally free £10 bet then sign up to SkyBet today using the banner link below:

Footnote: All odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

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