The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso

Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability.  It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent with his contract negotiations for next season!).  Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	6.50	1
Kimi Raikkonen	1.70	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.31	4
Lewis Hamilton	-0.15	2
Nico Rosberg	-0.43	2

Mark Webber	-0.75	2
Fernando Alonso	-1.50	3

Felipe Massa

-2.67

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

The Canadian Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Canadian Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from the last two races, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last time at Monaco thanks to bets such as 'Double Red Bull podium', 'Romain Grosjean not to be classified' and 'Nico Rosberg to be fastest qualifier' my longer priced tips performed extremely well making a return of 324 points from an initial 100 points and therefore an overall profit of 224 points.  My supposedly 'safer bets' however performed disappointingly, returning only 38 points from 100 points, so bear in mind that there's no such thing as a safe bet.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Canadian Grand Prix split into two categories...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Qualifier:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 3.5 (Ladbrokes)
Mercedes are the team in form when it comes to qualifying pace and Nico Rosberg currently has the upper hand over Lewis Hamilton with a run of three consecutive pole positions.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.83 (SkyBet)
Kimi Raikkonen had a result to forget at Monaco, but he's generally been a solid podium bet with four podiums from six Grand Prix in 2013.

Canadian Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of pre and post qualifying tips and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For recent races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can see the detailed results in my previous posts, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first six Grand Prix of the season, as we head to Canada the best bets so far have been...

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver - Kimi Raikkonen (50% profit / £9 return from £6 staked)
Podium Finish - Romain Grosjean (100% profit / £12 return from £6 staked)
Top Six Finish - Lewis Hamilton (25.3% profit / £7.52 return from £6 staked)
Top Ten Finish - Paul Di Resta (41% profit / £8.46 return from £6 staked)

N.B. The above figures are based on the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of the season based on the odds when the market first opened, i.e. before practise and qualifying.

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Monaco Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  My schedule over the next week means I won't be covering quite as many betting markets this time around, but I'll start things off today with the Winning Driver market.

However, obviously in formula 1 as in all sports, recent form has more relevance than the results earlier in the season, so this time out I've produced two charts.

The first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

Monaco Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For the last two races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can check out more detailed results in some of my posts over the last week, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first five Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...

Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Spanish Grand Prix.

Usually when I have a bet on formula 1, I generally prefer to wait until after qualifying as by this stage of the weekend the form of the various teams is starting to emerge and it's therefore possible to make a more educated guess as to how things will turn out.  It's quite rare therefore that I'll have a bet before qualifying and even rarer again that I'll ever bother with 'bet in play'.

However, just for a change, during the Spanish Grand Prix I monitored the 'bet in play' odds every few laps to see how the bookies resasessed their opinion of the potential winner as the Grand Prix progressed.  This is a graph of the odds:

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As the formula 1 calendar has a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I thought I would make use of the time to analyse the season so far from a betting point of view and compare which drivers have been the most profitable bets in each of the most popular betting markets.

I've therefore looked at the pre-qualifying odds offered by SkyBet at each Grand Prix of the season and then compiled a few charts showing which drivers would have returned the biggest profit in various markets if you'd bet on them at every race.

As we've only had three different race winners so far, the Winning Driver chart is fairly straight forward:

How The Odds For The 2013 Drivers' Championship Have Changed Since Pre-Season

Early season movers in the betting market...

Before the Australian Grand Prix I took a look at how the odds for the 2013 Drivers' Championship had changed since the market first opened.

Although it's still too early to have a categoric idea of the pecking order for the season just yet, the last two races have at least given us a reasonable idea of the general form of the teams.  To help me cope with the three week gap between the Malaysian Grand Prix and the Chinese Grand Prix, I've therefore decided to track the latest odds again to see how things have changed since pre-season and see if any trends are emerging.

Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Round-Up

A great weekend for Kimi Raikkonen but mixed results for my Australian Grand Prix formula 1 tips...

Last season my post-qualifying tips generally out-performed my pre-qualifying tips, but at the Australian Grand Prix it was a reversal of form as my pre-qualifying tips had the upper hand and just sneaked a slight profit...

Pre-Qualifying Tips:

To Win Outright:
20 points on Jenson Button at 6.0 - LOSS
From the first practise session it was already looking obvious that McLaren were way off the pace, so Jenson never had a chance of continuing his impressive run of victories at Albert Park.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 - WIN 60 points
Last year Fernando was by far the most attractive bet in the Podium Finish market and he started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place.

The Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Australian Grand Prix

The wait is over and the new season is finally here!

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.  In 2012 my post-qualifying tips generally outperformed my pre-qualifying tips so I'll see if that's how things turn out once again.

It's always a bit of a step into the unknown at the start of a new season when making predictions, but I'll see how I go...

To Win Outright:
20 points on Jenson Button at 6.0
Jenson Button wasn't overly pleased with the way things went for McLaren at the recent Barcelona test, but he clearly likes the Albert Park track and has won three of the last four Australian Grand Prix.  At odds of 6.0 he therefore looks worth a small bet for another Australian victory.

Which Formula 1 Driver Is The Most Popular In His Home Country?

How popular are formula 1 drivers in their own countries based on number of Google searches?

In my previous post, The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion, I compiled a list of the formula 1 drivers who took part in the 2012 formula 1 championship ranked in order of who gets the most searches on Google.  You can check out the results here:

The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion!

To quickly recap, the figures were based on the average number of worldwide searches per month on Google for each driver.  To investigate things further I decided to also look up the number of Google searches that each driver gets in their home country and see what effect that had on the rankings.  However, countries like Finland obviously have a smaller population than the likes of Germany, Spain and the UK, so the figures wouldn’t really mean much if I simply left things like that.

To ensure a level playing field, I therefore then adjusted the figures to produce the number of annual Google searches per 1,000 of the population in each driver’s home country.

Here are the results: