Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Indian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Blog Update: I love formula 1 and I love formula 1 statistics, so I've totally enjoyed running this blog over the last year or so.  However, it does require a regular commitment out of my schedule to prepare the betting statistics and upload the various betting tables and charts before every Grand Prix.

For the next few months I'll be away backpacking around the world, and although as a big formula 1 fan I'm trying to fit my travel plans around each Grand Prix wherever possible, the reality is that I won't be able to dedicate as much time to running this blog.

For the rest of the season it's probable therefore that my updates will be limited to a round-up before each Grand Prix of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting categories.

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.48 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.33 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.08 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.66 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£3.50 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.48 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.17 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£2.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£30.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£15.00 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£8.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.89 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£4.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More*  (£0.31 profit rating)

* SkyBet went with 7 seconds as the dividing line for the Winning Margin betting market at the Japanese Grand Prix, as opposed to their previous cut-off of 6 seconds.

For once Sebastian Vettel doesn't dominate the form guide as the best bet in multiple markets.  However, that's largely due to his odds in pretty much every category of betting becoming increasingly short with every additional race he wins.

If you're looking to minimise your risk, rather than gambling on a large return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish:  Fernando Alonso  (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish:  Jenson Button  (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (5 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (6 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (4 from 6 GP)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (2 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (3 from 6 GP)
Safety Car:  No  (4 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (4 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (4 from 6 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have recorded the biggest profit rating.  Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.

When the form guide ignores odds and is based purely on results, Sebastian Vettel once again dominates the form charts and crops up in numerous categories.  Unsurprisingly, Vettel is the safest bet in six betting markets, but of course any potential return will be minimal due to Vettel's increasingly narrow odds.  As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!

As previously mentioned, I'm away backpacking for the next few months and therefore I won't be able to make my usual set of tips for the Indian Grand Prix, but if anyone else wants to make any predictions of their own then feel free to leave a comment.

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