Formula 1 Betting By Numbers
Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...
* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.
Most Profitable Bets:
Winning Driver: Sebastian Vettel (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish: Romain Grosjean (£5.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish: Nico Hulkenberg (£19.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish: Nico Hulkenberg (£2.91 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier: Sebastian Vettel (£2.48 profit rating)
Winning Team: Red Bull (£2.92 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row: Sebastian Vettel (£1.24 profit rating)
Fastest Lap: Sebastian Vettel (£3.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader: Sebastian Vettel (£3.63 profit rating)
First To Retire: Paul di Resta (£19.83 profit rating)
First Team To Retire: Force India (£13.50 profit rating)
Safety Car: Yes (-£0.12 profit rating - Both 'yes' and 'no' have recorded a slight loss)
Lap 1 Retirements: None (£0.93 profit rating)
Winning Margin: Under 6 Seconds (£0.50 profit rating)
N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.
Sebastian Vettel continues to dominate the form guide, with Nico Hulkenberg and Romain Grosjean the only other drivers to feature as a best bet in a betting category (with the exception of 'First Driver To Retire').
If you're after a relatively safe bet, rather than gambling on a large return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:
Winning Driver: Sebastian Vettel (5 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel (6 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish: Fernando Alonso (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish: Jenson Button (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier: Sebastian Vettel (3 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team: Red Bull (5 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row: Sebastian Vettel (6 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap: Sebastian Vettel (3 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader: Sebastian Vettel (5 from 6 GP)
First To Retire: Paul di Resta (2 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire: Force India (3 from 6 GP)
Safety Car: Yes (3 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements: None (5 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin: Under 6 Seconds (3 from 6 GP)
N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have recorded the biggest profit rating. Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.
Sebastian Vettel's name crops up in six categories, so it's no surprise that his odds have narrowed in pretty much every betting category as the season has progressed. As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!
I'll be doing a lot of travelling over the next few days and therefore unfortunately I won't be able to make my usual set of tips for the Japanese Grand Prix, but if anyone else wants to make any Suzuka predictions of their own then feel free to leave a comment.
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