Friday, 4 October 2013

The Korean Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"I definitely feel like I have a better foundation this weekend." ...Lewis Hamilton

In recent weeks we've seen some uneventful races, but the signs so far this weekend are more promising.  Less than two tenths of a second separated the fastest four drivers in P2, so hopefully we may be in for a more exciting Korean Grand Prix.

There's also the weather to consider and although a possible typhoon was predicted earlier in the week, recent forecasts suggest that's now looking unlikely.   The latest weather forecast is nevertheless predicting a 60% chance of rain for Sunday's race, so that's another factor which could potentially lead to more excitement.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Coral, BetFred)
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have had a duopoly on pole position over the last seven Grand Prix and there looks to be a reasonable chance of that trend continuing, with a Hamilton Vettel one two in both practise sessions so far.  Of the two, Lewis Hamilton is available at the better odds and Mercedes have a knack for improving between P1 and qualifying, so Lewis is my choice for pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 (SkyBet)
All three of the previous three Korean Grand Prix have seen the front two drivers on the grid separated by less than a quarter of a second with the average gap being 0.12 seconds.  The pace of the front-runners has once again been close so far this weekend with less than two tenths of a second separating the four fastest drivers in P2.

Top Ten Finish:
10 points on Nico Hulkenberg at 1.91 (Coral, Bet Victor)
Nico Hulkenberg has been a decent Top Ten bet recently and as a result his odds have shortened slightly for Korea, but with four points scoring finishes from the last six Grand Prix he still looks a reasonable bet.

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Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* on Mark Webber at 51.0 (SkyBet)
Mark has a ten place grid penalty to contend with, so this bet is a big gamble and Mark may need a wet race to give himself a realistic chance of making the top three.  You also have to consider that some bookies only pay out on the first 2 places for an eachway bet (at 1/3 the odds).  Given Mark's ten place grid penalty it therefore makes sense to go with a bookmaker that pays out on the top 3 places, so I'm going for a small eachway punt with SkyBet.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first 3 places.

Podium Finish:
10 points on Romain Grosjean at 7.5 (SkyBet, Bet 365, William Hill)
With a potential wet race on the cards there's an extra element of risk attached with backing the favourites, so this weekend is as good a time as any to go for a speculative bet on an outsider.  Grosjean is an up and down sort of driver but he does tend to achieve the occasional podium and has two so far this season.

Qualifying Match Bets:
10 points accumulator:  (Paddy Power)

Romain Grosjean V Kimi Raikkonen - Romain Grosjean at 1.8
Sergio Perez V Nico Hulkenberg - Sergio Perez at 2.1

Jules Bianchi V Max Chilton - Jules Bianchi at 1.14

Given the uncertainty over the weather it may be wise to wait until closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets, so as usual I'll make another set of tips once the grid is settled.

. . . . . . . .

If you prefer to consult the statistics before placing your formula 1 bets then you can find the recent form guide at the following link:
Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Finally, you can find a more detailed analysis of the current form in various formula 1 betting markets at the following links:
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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