Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Few people would have been surprised when Sebastian Vettel wrapped up his fourth championship in India and you have to congratulate Vettel, but his dominance in recent races has made for a less than exciting championship battle.  I'm sure I'm not alone therefore in hoping that next year's regulation changes produce a much more closely fought driver's championship in 2014.

Despite the championship now being decided, I can't see Vettel being any less hungry for victories and the bookies seemingly agree as his odds are even shorter for Abu Dhabi.  As a result of Vettel's short odds, the most profitable bets have not always been the driver that you would expect.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.10 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£6.47 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£11.67 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£1.43 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£2.33 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.18 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£2.19 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£15.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£24.83 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Giedo van der Garde  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (£5.08 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.76 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£3.17 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.05 profit rating)

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Round-Up

Once again my post-qualifying tips outperformed my pre-qualifying tips

In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and then place a few hypothetical bets both before and after qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com.  I then analyse their performance and see which set of tips do best.

Once again my post-qualifying tips outperformed my pre-qualifying tips, making a modest profit for the second week running, so the way things are developing it’s looking like after qualifying is definitely the best time to place your formula 1 bets…

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Lap 1 Leader:

10 points on Mark Webber at 6.0 - LOSS

Webber made a very poor start and wasted his strong qualifying, so this bet was already looking doomed by the first corner.

To Finish On The Podium:

20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.63 – WIN 53 points

With the benefit of hindsight, I was too conservative with this bet but nevertheless Kimi justified his pre-race confidence with a strong controlled performance.  He made an excellent getaway from the grid which meant he was perfectly placed to capitalise when Lewis suffered more mechanical woes.

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.

You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips... 

Lap 1 Leader:
10 points on Mark Webber at 6.0
Lewis Hamilton's starts haven't been that great in recent races, so although Mark Webber admittedly hasn't always been an amazing starter himself, odds of 6.0 look a little generous and therefore I'm going to go for a small punt on Mark Webber in the Lap 1 Leader market.

To Finish On The Podium:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.63
Kimi was talking up his chances of a strong race in his post-qualifying interviews and seems confident that he has the pace to fight the Red Bulls (meaning Mark Webber now that Vettel is starting from the pit-lane).  There's no escaping the fact that the Lotus' lack of straight-line speed has meant that Kimi hasn't been a great over-taker this season, but nevertheless starting from fourth a podium finish looks within Kimi's capabilities.

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best. 

GP Winning Margin:
20 points on 6 Seconds Or More at 1.73
All of Sebastian Vettel's four recent victories have been won by more than 6 seconds.  Maybe part of the reason for this is that Vettel, being the competitive racer he is, likes to put in fast laps in the closing stages of a Grand Prix in an attempt to get the fastest lap of the race.  Whatever the reason, we haven't seen a really close finish for a while now so a winning margin of more than 6 seconds would seem to be the bet to go for.

To Win Outright:
10 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.73
The unpredictability of the start of the season now feels a long time ago after Sebastian Vettel's domination in recent Grand Prix.  Vettel now has four straight victories so you can understand why the bookes have him as the odds on favourite as he looks unstoppable at the moment.  At odds of 1.73 though, there's too much risk for not enough reward so I'm going to limit myself to a small 10 point bet on Sebastian Vettel to continue his run and then go for an additional eachway bet on one of the chasing pack...