Tuesday, 30 October 2012

The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Yas Marina Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I'll make some tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best. 

GP Winning Margin:
20 points on 6 Seconds Or More at 1.73
All of Sebastian Vettel's four recent victories have been won by more than 6 seconds.  Maybe part of the reason for this is that Vettel, being the competitive racer he is, likes to put in fast laps in the closing stages of a Grand Prix in an attempt to get the fastest lap of the race.  Whatever the reason, we haven't seen a really close finish for a while now so a winning margin of more than 6 seconds would seem to be the bet to go for.

To Win Outright:
10 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.73
The unpredictability of the start of the season now feels a long time ago after Sebastian Vettel's domination in recent Grand Prix.  Vettel now has four straight victories so you can understand why the bookes have him as the odds on favourite as he looks unstoppable at the moment.  At odds of 1.73 though, there's too much risk for not enough reward so I'm going to limit myself to a small 10 point bet on Sebastian Vettel to continue his run and then go for an additional eachway bet on one of the chasing pack...

To Win Outright (Eachway Bet): 
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 7.0
After Vettel there's not much to choose between Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton.  As you'd therefore expect, their odds are closely matched but of the three, Lewis Hamilton is offered at the biggest price with odds of 7.0.  The McLarens went well in Abu Dhabi last year with Lewis claiming the victory and Jenson joining him on the podium, so I'm therefore going to go for a small eachway bet on Lewis for the victory.

Top Six Finish:
15 points on Felipe Massa at 1.73
Despite his poor start to the season, Felipe Massa has found a level of consistency in recent Grand Prix and has in fact recorded 5 top six finishes in the last 6 races, so looks reasonably priced at odds of 1.73 for another top six finish in Abu Dhabi.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
10 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 3.5
There aren't too many appealing bets in this market this weekend and the only bet that caught my eye was Daniel Ricciardo.  He's one of those drivers that quietly goes about putting in a solid drive without getting noticed and in fact Ricciardo has recorded 4 top ten finishes in the last 6 Grand Prix.  His odds of 3.5 for a points scoring finish in Abu Dhabi therefore seem like fair value.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on Under 0.150 Seconds at 2.0
This is a difficult market to predict (the last four Grand Prix are split two apiece) but given the tightness of the field at the front of the grid at the moment, I expect a competitive qualifying session and therefore am more inclined to go for a margin of under 0.15 seconds to separate the front row of the grid.

Not To Be Classified:
10 points on Michael Schumacher at 4.5
Michael has had a couple of impressive moments this season but overall it would be fair to say his reliability in terms of finishes has been erratic.  From the 17 Grand Prix so far this season he has recorded 7 official retirements so a bet on Michael Schumacher not to be classfied would seem worth a small punt.

To Retire On First lap:
5 points on Romain Grosjean at 23.0
In recent Grand Prix, Romain Grosjean looks to have moved on from his previously accident prone first laps.  However, odds of 23.0 are generous enough to tempt me into a small bet on Grosjean to retire on the first lap in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

As already mentioned, I'll reassess things after qualifying and offer another selection of tips, and then see how my predictions compare.

Disclaimer:  A small bet can make a formula 1 race more exciting but gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with a free bet, so if you'd like the chance to claim a totally free £10 bet then sign up to SkyBet today using the banner link below:


Footnote: All odds were correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

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