Friday, 6 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Tips

"The car feels really good so his [Vettel's] car must feel incredible! " ...Lewis Hamilton

Last time out at Spa I correctly predicted Lewis Hamilton for pole position, but other than that my pre-qualifying tips had a disappointing weekend.  It may therefore be wiser to pay closer attention to the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets this weekend.

It's a crucial weekend for the championship, and the likes of Lewis, Fernando and Kimi really have to start beating Sebastion sooner rather than later if we're going to have a close championship battle, but so far this weekend Red Bull are looking very strong as usual.

It's worth mentioning that the weather forecast is predicting 'scattered thunderstorms over the weekend', so it may be wiser to wait until Sunday morning (when a more accurate idea of the possibility of a wet race should be available) before placing your formula 1 bets this weekend.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.0 (Boylesports)
Lewis has had a mixed weekend so far, with the fastest time in P1 and a less impressive P2, but he arrives at Monza on the back of two podium finishes and he won here last year.  Monza is generally also kinder to tyres than some tracks, which should suit Mercedes, so the odds of 2.0 offered by Boylesports for a Lewis Hamilton podium seem reasonable.

Qualifying Match Bet:
Jenson Button V Sergio Perez - Sergio Perez at 2.75 (SkyBet)
Jenson had the upper hand against his team-mate in qualifying at the start of the season with a 4-1 record at the opening five Grand Prix of 2013.  Since then, however, qualifying has been more evenly matched at three 'wins' apiece.  Sergio and Jenson were separated by less than a tenth in both P1 and P2, and Perez looked impressive here last year, so odds of 2.75 for Sergio to edge out Jenson in qualifying seem more than fair.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.2 Seconds at 1.73 (William Hill)
Although Lewis has had a monopoly on pole position in recent qualifying sessions, he nevertheless hasn't had it easy and the margin to second on the grid has generally been very close indeed.  In fact six of the last seven qualifying sessions have seen less than two tenths of a second separate the front row of the grid.

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Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Pole Position:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.75 (Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power)
In P2 Red Bull and Vettel in particular looked pretty unstopable but Lewis Hamilton has made a habit of finding that extra bit of time when in matters in Q3.  He's currently on a run of four straight pole positions, so although at the present moment it looks like he has a lot of time to find, as the man in form I'm still tempted by a small punt on Lewis to extend his run and make it five out of five.

Top Six Finish:

10 points on Sergio Perez at 6.0 (William Hill)

McLaren are having a terrible season by their standards but they looked to have made reasonable improvements at Spa.  Admittedly, Sergio Perez has been a poor top six bet so far this season, but he finished second at Monza last year, only 4.3 seconds behind winner Lewis Hamilton, and almost forty seconds ahead of his team-mate Kamui Kobayashi, so he's potentially capable of a strong showing again, and at odds of 6.0 I'm therefore tempted by a speculative punt.

Qualifying Match Bets:
10 point accumulator on:  (SkyBet)
Lewis Hamilton V Nico Rosberg - Lewis Hamilton at 1.36
Sebastian Vettel V Mark Webber - Sebastian Vettel at 1.14
Kimi Raikkonen V Romain Grosjean - Romain Grosjean at 2.1

. . . . . . . .

As I mentioned at the start of this post, 'scattered thunderstorms' are predicted for Sunday which could mean an exciting race, but also an unpredictable race, so proceed with caution this weekend.  If you'd like to check out the formula 1 form guide you can find it at the following link:
Italian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Finally, you can find a more detailed analysis of the current form in various formula 1 betting markets at the following links:
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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