Italian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Nico Rosberg  (£3.17 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£4.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Jeanson Button  (£2.83 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£1.38 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lewis Hamilton  (£5.46 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Mercedes  (£5.13 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Lewis Hamilton  (£2.35 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£10.33 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel (£2.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil  (£14.00 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (£6.42 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.84 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£1.94 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (£0.27 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

If you're looking to minimise your risk, rather than gambling on a large return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish:  Lewis Hamilton  (6 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish:  Mark Webber  (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lewis Hamilton  (4 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team:  Mercedes  (3 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Lewis Hamilton  (6 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (3 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 from 6 GP)
First To Retire:  Adrian Sutil  (1 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (3 from 6 GP)
Safety Car:  No  (3 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (6 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (3 from 6 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have returned the biggest profit.  Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.

As you can see, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton seem to crop up in more categories than any other driver, although this will no doubt be reflected in their odds.  As usual, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!


If you'd like to check out more detailed form guide charts then you can find them at the following links:
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

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