Saturday, 6 October 2012

The Japanese Grand Prix: Suzuka Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Japanese Grand Prix

Every Grand Prix weekend I give myself 100 points and place a few hypothetical bets using the odds available from and see how I do.  In general I always like to wait until after qualifying before placing my bets, so to test whether that's the best strategy or not, I place a selection of tips before and after qualifying and see which set of tips do best.  You can find my pre-qualifying tips here:
The Japanese Grand Prix: Suzuka Pre-Qualifying Tips

And here are my post-qualifying tips...

To Win Outright:
20 points on Mark Webber at 6.0
The Red Bulls were clearly the team to beat in qualifying but at the time of writing Sebastian Vettel is still under investigation for allegedly blocking Fernando Alonso during Q3.  With Vettel's odds for the victory as short as 1.57 that therefore looks a risky proposition as things stand.  Mark Webber has been off the pace slightly in the last few races but with the question mark currently hanging over Vettel's starting grid position, a small bet on Mark Webber at odds of 6.0 looks the safer option.

To Win Outright (Eachway)*:
15 points on Sergio Perez at 26.0
This looks like a bit of an optimistic bet given that Sergio Perez has yet to win a Grand Prix.  However, excluding retirements, Perez has improved on his grid position during the race in all but one of the last ten Grand Prix, and always looks strong during the closing stages of races.  Starting from 5th he therefore looks a reasonable bet to claim his 4th top three position of the year, so while the top step of the podium looks a longshot, an eachway bet at odds of 26.0 seems worth a small punt.

* NB. Some bookies pay 1/5 of the odds for a top three finish, while others pay 1/3 of the odds for a top two finish.  I'm picking this bet based on 1/5 of the odds for a top three finish but would probably give it a miss if 1/3 of the odds for a top two finish were offered.

To Finish On The Podium:
35 points on Jenson Button at 3.75
Despite his five slot grid penalty, Jenson looked to be the 'best of the rest' behind the Red Bulls during qualifying.  He tends to go well at this type of track (he won at Suzuka last year and also at Spa a few weeks ago which is a similar sort of track) and will fancy his chances of moving through the field given the pace so far this weekend of the cars ahead of him.  A podium spot therefore doesn't look out of the question and at odds of 3.75 looks worth a bet.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish):
20 points on Bruno Senna at 6.0
Bruno tends to race better than he qualifies, admittedly without setting the world alight.  He's finished in the top ten at five of the last nine races, yet despite his apparent knack for bringing the car home in the lower end of the points scoring positions, the bookies always tend to price him quite generously in this market.  His odds this weekend of 6.0 take into account a difficult starting position of 18th, so a points position is by no means a formality, but other than Nico Rosberg no other bets really stood out so I'm going for Senna to finish in the points.

Fastest Lap:
10 points on Sergio Perez at 17.0
Fastest lap always has a random element to it so it's a difficult market to predict.  Given the unpredictability I therefore generally prefer to stay away from the short odds offered on the favourites.  The Saubers look fast this weekend and added to that you have the fact that they have tended to be strong in the closing stages of races this year (when fastest lap is set due to low fuel), so Sergio Perez at odds of 17.0 looks as good a bet as any to take fastest lap.

As already mentioned, I also placed a few hypothetical points bets before qualifying so I'll report back after tomorrow's race and see how the two sets of bets compare.

Disclaimer:  A small bet can make a formula 1 race more exciting but the unpredictable nature of the sport mean that having a large bet is just stupid.  Gambling can be a risky business so never bet more than you can afford to lose.  The safest way to bet is with points rather than pounds, so if you'd like the chance to gamble risk-free with points for the chance to win cash prizes then a website worth visiting is  It's free to sign up and they offer cash prizes for the most successful punters in various sporting categories.  If you'd like to check it out then click on the link below:
Bet with points for the chance to win cash prizes at

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