Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Few people would have been surprised when Sebastian Vettel wrapped up his fourth championship in India and you have to congratulate Vettel, but his dominance in recent races has made for a less than exciting championship battle.  I'm sure I'm not alone therefore in hoping that next year's regulation changes produce a much more closely fought driver's championship in 2014.

Despite the championship now being decided, I can't see Vettel being any less hungry for victories and the bookies seemingly agree as his odds are even shorter for Abu Dhabi.  As a result of Vettel's short odds, the most profitable bets have not always been the driver that you would expect.

Here's a round-up of the best formula 1 bets by the form guide for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

Most Profitable Bets*:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.10 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£6.47 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£11.67 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Adrian Sutil  (£1.43 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£2.33 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.18 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Nico Rosberg  (£2.19 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Kimi Raikkonen  (£15.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£24.83 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Giedo van der Garde  (£11.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Caterham  (£5.08 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.76 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£3.17 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  X Seconds Or More**  (£1.05 profit rating)

Indian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Blog Update: I love formula 1 and I love formula 1 statistics, so I've totally enjoyed running this blog over the last year or so.  However, it does require a regular commitment out of my schedule to prepare the betting statistics and upload the various betting tables and charts before every Grand Prix.

For the next few months I'll be away backpacking around the world, and although as a big formula 1 fan I'm trying to fit my travel plans around each Grand Prix wherever possible, the reality is that I won't be able to dedicate as much time to running this blog.

For the rest of the season it's probable therefore that my updates will be limited to a round-up before each Grand Prix of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting categories.

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.  Odds are generally taken a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the betting markets open.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.48 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.33 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.08 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.66 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Mark Webber  (£3.50 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.48 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.17 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£2.67 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Romain Grosjean  (£30.50 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£15.00 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£8.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.89 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  2  (£4.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More*  (£0.31 profit rating)

* SkyBet went with 7 seconds as the dividing line for the Winning Margin betting market at the Japanese Grand Prix, as opposed to their previous cut-off of 6 seconds.

Japanese Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Due to the tight timescale between Korea and Suzuka, I haven't had time to go into an in-depth analysis of each formula 1 betting market this week, so instead here's a summary of the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, by the form guide in various formula 1 betting categories...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£5.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£19.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£2.91 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£2.48 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.92 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.24 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.50 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.63 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£19.83 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  Yes  (-£0.12 profit rating - Both 'yes' and 'no' have recorded a slight loss)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.93 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.50 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Germany 16.7%, Hungary 33.3%, Belgium 50%, Italy 66.7%, Singapore 83.3% and Korea 100%.

Korean Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is super performance and they (Red Bull) deserve it.  They are winning everything and we have to do better." " ...Fernando Alonso

It was another uneventful race at the front and the championship looks to be a mathematical formality now.  Further down the field though, there was some exciting racing with Nico Hulkenberg in particular putting in a notable performance.

On the betting front it was an excellent week all round for my tips with all four of my sets of tips making a profit and my 'Longer Priced Bets' in particular producing a pleasing return...

Pre Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 - LOSS
Sebastian Vettel's domination of qualifying continued with his third consectuive pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 - WIN 16 points
Sebastian Vettel took pole from Lewis Hamilton by 0.218 seconds.

The Korean Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“There is always some action in this race." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Korean Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided, it's time to make another set of predictions...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (BetFred)
Ferrari have looked to be a bit off the pace so far this weekend but interestingly, Alonso and Massa recorded the two fastest speeds in the speed trap during qualifying, so it looks as if their cars are set up with overtaking in mind during the race.  Alonso started 9th, 5th and 7th at the three previous Grand Prix this season and on each of those occasions ultimately finished in second place.  Fernando has also made up places at each of the three previous Korean Grand Prix, so starting from fifth another podium looks to be within his capabilities.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None' at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This bet has paid out at every Grand Prix except Monza so once again I'm going to go for a punt on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None'.

The Korean Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"I definitely feel like I have a better foundation this weekend." ...Lewis Hamilton

In recent weeks we've seen some uneventful races, but the signs so far this weekend are more promising.  Less than two tenths of a second separated the fastest four drivers in P2, so hopefully we may be in for a more exciting Korean Grand Prix.

There's also the weather to consider and although a possible typhoon was predicted earlier in the week, recent forecasts suggest that's now looking unlikely.   The latest weather forecast is nevertheless predicting a 60% chance of rain for Sunday's race, so that's another factor which could potentially lead to more excitement.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Q3 Time (Pole Position):
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 3.0 (Coral, BetFred)
Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have had a duopoly on pole position over the last seven Grand Prix and there looks to be a reasonable chance of that trend continuing, with a Hamilton Vettel one two in both practise sessions so far.  Of the two, Lewis Hamilton is available at the better odds and Mercedes have a knack for improving between P1 and qualifying, so Lewis is my choice for pole position.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.62 (SkyBet)
All three of the previous three Korean Grand Prix have seen the front two drivers on the grid separated by less than a quarter of a second with the average gap being 0.12 seconds.  The pace of the front-runners has once again been close so far this weekend with less than two tenths of a second separating the four fastest drivers in P2.

Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you want to beat the bookies at formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, so over the last few days I've analysed the statistics to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.97 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.22 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£14.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.23 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.62 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£2.72 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£1.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (£1.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.70 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Daniel Ricciardo  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£9.92 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£0.23 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£0.72 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (£0.20 profit rating)

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a few miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts are based on the last six races with the statistics weighted in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	1.83	2
Lewis Hamilton	1.50	1
Mark Webber	1.33	2
Fernando Alonso	-0.17	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As the Korean Grand Prix approaches I've analysed the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I look at Top Ten Finish betting and once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows: