Friday, 31 May 2013

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Monaco Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  My schedule over the next week means I won't be covering quite as many betting markets this time around, but I'll start things off today with the Winning Driver market.

However, obviously in formula 1 as in all sports, recent form has more relevance than the results earlier in the season, so this time out I've produced two charts.

The first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver:

Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Kimi Raikkonen3.001
Fernando Alonso2.252
Nico Rosberg1.001
Sebastian Vettel0.302
Rest Of The Field-6.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  
Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.


For the second chart, I've weighted things in favour of recent races so that the most recent Grand Prix have more relevance to the overall results.  To be specific, for Australia (the opening Grand Prix of 2013) I've applied a 16.7% multiplier, for Malaysia 33.3%, for China 50%, for Bahrain 66.7%, for Spain 83.3% and for Monaco 100%:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver Weighted In Favour Of Current Form:

Winning DriverProfitWinning Bet
Nico Rosberg3.501
Fernando Alonso1.882
Sebastian Vettel-0.302
Kimi Raikkonen -2.001
Rest Of The Field-3.500

As you can see, when the data is weighted in favour of recent races, Nico Rosberg jumps to the top of the chart, while Kimi Raikkonen drops to fourth.  I'm not sure exactly how much significance to give to either chart, but I think it's fair to say that after his victory in Monaco, Nico Rosberg's odds are likely to be shorter at Canada, whereas Kimi Raikkonen's victory at Melbourne won't have quite as much bearing when the bookies are compiling their odds.

As you might have guessed I'm a bit of a statistics nerd when it comes to formula 1 betting, and next up I'll be analysing the Podium Finish market.

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Other recent posts:
Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up
The Monaco Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips
The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

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