Saturday, 18 May 2013

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 1 - Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

After Bahrain, to help me cope with the three week gap until Spain, I compiled a few charts which analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Once again in the build up to Monaco I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts, starting first of all with the charts for the Winning Driver and Podium Finish markets.

Fernando Alonso's victory in front of his home crowd at Spain means we've still only had three winners so far this season...

Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Kimi Raikkonen4.001
Fernando Alonso3.252
Sebastian Vettel1.302
Rest Of The Field-5.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix of the season.  
Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

We're yet to see the wide range of winners that we witnessed at the start of 2012, and the results so far would clearly suggest then that it appears to be wisest to stick to the favourites when betting on the Winning Driver market.

Kimi Raikkonen remains the most profitable bet so far this season, but Fernando Alonso's victory in Spain means that he's now breathing down Kimi's neck.  When looking to make a profit, bear in mind also that Kimi's win came at the first Grand Prix of the season when he was priced quite generously at 9.0 for the victory.  Kimi's strong results since then have meant that in recent races his winning odds have come down slightly, whereas Alonso and Vettel's reputation as favourites has remained fairly constant throughout the season.


Next up here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the Podium Finish market and obviously this one features quite a few more drivers:

Podium FinishProfitWinning Bet
Romain Grosjean7.001
Kimi Raikkonen3.424
Lewis Hamilton1.002
Fernando Alonso0.173
Felipe Massa0.001
Sebastian Vettel-0.463
Mark Webber-1.501
Rest Of The Field-5.000

Romain Grosjean remains at the top of the chart, thanks to his podium finish in Bahrain, but if you're looking for a relatively 'safe' bet then Kimi Raikkonen remains the driver to go for, with his second place in Spain meaning he now has four podium finishes already this season.

Despite three podium finishes to his name, Sebastian Vettel has actually been a loss-making bet, due to the fact that, as you'd expect, the bookies rate him so highly and consistently have him priced at odds on for the podium.

Bear in mind that I've compiled these figures based on the odds available early in the week prior to each Grand Prix before first practise started.  For example, Felipe Massa opened at 5.0 for a podium in Spain, but after qualifying (when he was handed a three place grid penalty), his odds drifted out to 6.0, so a well-timed bet can mean there's more profit available for certain drivers.  If you're prepared to hunt around the various bookies then again you may also find better margins available.

That's the 'Betting Profit' charts for the Winning Driver and Podium Finish markets updated.  Over the next few days I'll also be posting the statistics for some of the other popular formula 1 betting markets.

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Other recent posts:
Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Round-Up
The Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Post Qualifying Tips

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