Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Round-Up

Team orders meant my tips came undone this week...

I had two near misses on potential big wins this week as my tips for the Malaysian Grand Prix were undone by team orders; on one occasion by team orders being obeyed and on another occasion by them being disobeyed.

Formula 1 wouldn't be the same without a bit of controversy though, so despite my two near misses (otherwise known as failures), I've totally enjoyed the excitement and entertainment provided so far this season.

Despite making an overall loss, a few tips came up, so this is the summary of how things went...

Pre-Qualifying Tips

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0 - LOSS
As Murray Walker used to say 'if is formula 1 spelt backwards' and if Sebastian Vettel had obeyed team orders this would have been a big winning bet.  However, as Ron Dennis used to say, 'second place is first of the losers' and unfortunately second place for Mark meant this was a losing bet.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 2.25 - WIN 45 points
Mercedes had a strong weekend and in the end Nico was very vocal in expressing his disappointment at not being allowed to pass his team-mate Lewis (who was short fuelled and therefore cruising to the end) for a podium finish.  Nico still brought his car home in 4th though, to ensure this was a winning bet.

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.  At the Australian Grand Prix my pre-qualifying tips came out on top so I'll see if I can do better with my post-qualifying tips this time.

According to the weather forecast there's a 60% chance of rain for tomorrow's race (at the time of writing) with the chance of a storm being mentioned by some forecasters, so the uncertainty introduces a bigger element of randomness than we could usually expect before a race.  I'm therefore going to take a gamble on a wet race and stay away from the favourites and instead edge towards some of the longer priced drivers with my tips for tomorrow's race.

Race Winner:
10 points on Felipe Massa at 9.0
Felipe is on an upward curve at the moment and has now out-qualified his team-mate Alonso for the fourth successive Grand Prix.  Fernando has consistently shown that he has the upper hand during races, however, so you can understand why the bookies price him much shorter than Massa for the victory, but I'm nevertheless tempted by a small speculative bet on Felipe Massa at odds of 9.0.

Podium:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 5.5
Nico Rosberg was confident that he was looking at a chance of pole position if the rain hadn't came, and the Mercedes' pace in the dry looks impressive.  This is a tip which could be affected by the unpredictability of a wet race but Mercedes have shown solid form so far this weekend, so odds of 5.5 for Nico to take a podium seem like reasonable value.

The Malaysian Grand Prix: Sepang Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Malaysian Grand Prix

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.

My pre-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix sneaked a small profit so I'll see if I can make that a bigger profit for the Malaysian Grand Prix...

To Win Outright: 
10 points on Mark Webber at 13.0
Given the variety of race winners we had in 2012, the winning driver market was the trickiest betting market to make a profit from last season.  I'm therefore cautious about going for the favourites at this early stage of the season.  The form of the Red Bulls so far this weekend has looked potentially good enough for a victory with Mark Webber going fastest in first practise.  Admittedly that doesn't mean a great deal, but Mark nevertheless looks reasonable value for a small speculative bet at odds of 13.0.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 1.67
In 2012 Alonso Fernando was an excellent bet in the Podium Finish market and he seems to have started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place in Melbourne.  Despite his short odds therefore I'm going to go for Fernando Alonso for another podium finish at odds of 1.67.

Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Round-Up

A great weekend for Kimi Raikkonen but mixed results for my Australian Grand Prix formula 1 tips...

Last season my post-qualifying tips generally out-performed my pre-qualifying tips, but at the Australian Grand Prix it was a reversal of form as my pre-qualifying tips had the upper hand and just sneaked a slight profit...

Pre-Qualifying Tips:

To Win Outright:
20 points on Jenson Button at 6.0 - LOSS
From the first practise session it was already looking obvious that McLaren were way off the pace, so Jenson never had a chance of continuing his impressive run of victories at Albert Park.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 - WIN 60 points
Last year Fernando was by far the most attractive bet in the Podium Finish market and he started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place.

The Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Post-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Australian Grand Prix

Rain meant we had to wait longer than expected to discover the starting grid positions, but once things were finally decided it was clear that the pace Red Bull showed during practise was no fluke and therefore as you would expect the Red Bull drivers feature heavily in my post-qualifying tips for the Australian Grand Prix.

It's always more of a risk betting on the first Grand Prix of the season, but I'll see how I go...

To Win Outright:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 1.67
The Red Bull's strong form so far this weekend and Vettel's pole mean that the bookies make him the odds on favourite and I can't really disagree.  I don't usually like betting on an odds on favourite in formula 1 but when you also consider that three of the last five Australian Grand Prix have been won from pole you have to conclude that Vettel seems like the sensible bet.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Mark Webber at 1.73
Mark Webber hasn't always gone well at the Australian Grand Prix in the past, but the Red Bulls look to be the class of the field, so starting from second Mark looks a fairly decent bet (barring mechanical problems) to start the season with a podium.

The Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Australian Grand Prix

The wait is over and the new season is finally here!

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.  In 2012 my post-qualifying tips generally outperformed my pre-qualifying tips so I'll see if that's how things turn out once again.

It's always a bit of a step into the unknown at the start of a new season when making predictions, but I'll see how I go...

To Win Outright:
20 points on Jenson Button at 6.0
Jenson Button wasn't overly pleased with the way things went for McLaren at the recent Barcelona test, but he clearly likes the Albert Park track and has won three of the last four Australian Grand Prix.  At odds of 6.0 he therefore looks worth a small bet for another Australian victory.

Driver Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season

An analysis of the most popular formula 1 betting market for 2013.

A couple of months ago I took a look at the odds for the 2013 formula 1 drivers' championship, so with the new season now only a week away I thought it would be interesting to look at how those odds have changed since the bookies first started taking bets on the forthcoming season.

In my original post I grouped the drivers into three categories; the favourites, the outside contenders and the longshots, so once again I'll look at the odds for these three groups.

The favourites:

	Early Odds	Current Odds
Sebastian Vettel	2.25	2.5
Fernando Alonso	3.25	4.0

It's no surprise that the bookies make Vettel and Alonso the favourites, but it's interesting that the odds for both Vettel and Alonso have drifted out slightly since the market opened.  Given the fact that the relative performances of the teams at the start of the season always contains an element of the unknown, my own personal view is that anyone wanting to place a bet on Vettel or Alonso for the championship would maybe be wise to wait until after the Australia Grand Prix, as whatever the result in Melbourne their odds are unlikely to shorten dramatically.

Formula 1 Betting Markets: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

The 'Break Even' odds for each driver in the Top Ten Finish market

Over the last few weeks I've analysed the odds you would need to break even in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six markets if you were to place a bet on a specific driver at every race of the season.

On each occasion I used the number of race wins, podiums and top six finishes respectively to calculate the 'break even point' for the odds in each market.  By this I mean if you were to place a bet on a driver at every Grand Prix of the season, the odds at which the driver would have to be priced at every race to ensure you broke even over the course of the season.

Overall, the winning driver market was quite a tricky one to find value from the odds and of the three markets featured so far, possibly some of the best bets have been Fernando Alonso in the podium market and Felipe Massa, Kimi Raikkonen and Kamui Kobayashi in the Top Six market.  However, with Kimi and Felipe in particular their top six consistency fluctuated throughout the year and so the key was to spot the trend early in the periods when they were achieving top six consistency.